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Member Info for MrMagic

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Member Since: Mon, 13th Jun 2011

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 8,926
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 101

Last Posted: Today 14:57

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Today 14:57

" IMO this is going to come good and if it takes a bit longer than expected, then so be it.. "

Therein lies the rub though. The longer it takes for any real value to emerge the more at risk your holding is to the next placing/dilution. It seems obvious to me that someone "in the know" as you put it, has been bailing out for the past few weeks. Thus it seems obvious to me what is coming, esp given the plethora of rumours being spread here by the "usual suspects" and the relentless sound bites.

Here again are just some of the trades shown as sells from late June:

20m @ 0.0263p
33m @ 0.0265p
33m @ 0.027p
5.0m @ 0.027p
2.0m @ 0.027p
8.7m @ 0.0283p
7.4m @ 0.027p
10.6m @ 0.0277p
4.9m @ 0.029p
20,180,852 @ 0.026p
15,000,000 @ 0.025p
22,287,036 @ 0.025p
15,000,000 @ 0.026p

and yesterday

20m @ 0.028p
4m @ 0.027p

Yes, for every sell there must be a buy and good luck to those who bought, but yesterday's RNS is imo a clear warning of a funding requirement up to $450,000.
Today 13:33

Seems a poster on ADVFN board has also noticed someone bailing:

Caledoniaman1 - 29th July
"somebody is offloading big time and as usual being helped by the scum mm's ! AIMVHO"

Worth following ADVFN for differing viewpoints to the standard ramping here imo. You have to put up with a fair bit of language and poor taste at times but you get more realistic views.
Today 12:29

Orslega - "The bottom line is that he has managed to keep NCT alive in what has been a very very difficult climate"

Keeping a loss making company alive whilst continuing to extract significant remunerations for key management and diluting shareholders massively is not a trait to be proud of. The same pathetic rhetoric was said of Andrew Bell who has presided over a loss making company, whilst happily taking plenty of salary and whilst diluting shareholders to oblivion. Your sound bites get worse and worse. I recommend readers concentrate solely on the RNSs and actuals and ignore the endless "jam tomorrow" flim flam being spewed here on an hourly basis.

What income/revenue does NCT have vs its regular expenses and outgoings?
What did the Final Results recently posted show?
How will NCT fund its continuing obligations and future projects?
How likely is a share consolidation at this point?
How will the (<)$450,000 costs announced yesterday be funded?

Stick to the facts and DYOR imo.
Today 11:01

What it was, was info about potential future gas flow but without any "actuals", only test results.

As has been pointed out, the test results for LM#20 proved to be massively over-inflated compared to actual production rate. Equally, the presence of gas has been known for ages. In fact we were informed that gas was having to be flared off earlier this year. So the markets already know about gas. They've now been told that there is potentially more gas at LM#14, which is great, but until they get some concrete numbers why would you expect them to react ? Especially when that same RNS comes with a "fundraise" health warning !
Today 10:57

Stuy - "Yesterday's RNS was a cracking RNS, but we still went down -8%!"

So it clearly wasn't a cracking RNS after all.

What it was, was a
Today 10:52

Lot's of nonsense being posted imo.

Yesterday's RNS gave a clear warning of a funding requirement. No point trying to water that down. It is what it is.

NCT recently performed 2 placings in March and April. In early March the SP was trading around 0.06p and then started sliding downward towards 0.0475p, the SP the day before the first placing. Some people could not understand what was happening. One poster called Glib said:

"NCT seem to be doing all the right things, but not getting any credit for it"

Perhaps the "smart money" was moving out in anticipation of a fundraise, who knows?

When the first placing was announced on 23rd March it was for GBP 450,000 and the 1.4 billion shares were issued at 0.0315p which represented a 33% discount to the prevailing SP of 0.0475p the day before. Quite a discount !

It would be shortly followed up by another massive placing in April of 1.5 billion shares again at 0.0315p to raise a further GBP 500.000.

This is massive dilution which imo serves only to destroy the value of existing shareholders investments.

When you then read in the end of year Final Results that key management total remuneration was $808,000 last year and that $4.3m went on "Other Administrative Expenses" it must seem intensely frustrating to holders watching the share price being eroded.

None of this is suggestive that NCT does not have future potential. Far from it. There are tangible future revenues from oil and gas clearly, but the moral or lesson that I personally derive from these kind of situations is that investing early for such future potential in companies that are ready and willing to undermine shareholders with massive discounted placings, is some what of a mugs game. You tend to lose significant value in your holding from the dilution and then you need that future potential or more just to get you back to break even point. It just isn't worth it imo, a total mugs game. I say, let the company first deliver the goods, establish revenue that can cover its expenditures (esp salaries and admin) and then look at the future potential. Each to their own though and always DYOR.
Thu 21:00

"a large amount of stock seems to be being sold......"

It's being going on for weeks as I pointed out a few times. Notable as many of the trades were around 0.026p levels which for any normal investor would surely be loss making. Crew here weren't overly keen to talk about it imo.
Thu 15:32

which will . . imo . . likely get diluted
Thu 15:30

Re: Your 12:41 post

Helpful - "NCT have said that LM14 is going to be hooked up and RRR have confirmed that currently LM20 is not "

Helpful - "Why would NCT stump up the whole of the $450k and allow RRR and GCW free use of the system to sell their gas?"

Well AFAIK LM#14 is not a well that RRR has any participation in (correct me if incorrect). That being the case why would RRR want to stump up any of the infrastructure costs ? Would seem pointless. We might also want to ask why LM#20 isn't being connected for gas when it has been stated all along that it can produce gas.

If the LM#14 gas production rates/volumes are anywhere near those being touted from super duper "test results" (lols) then why would NCT want anyone else to participate? Surely better to stump up the (relatively small) costs themselves and take all the profits.

Of course if the rates/volumes are not that good in actual production then yes maybe try to get someone else to help stump up the costs.

So we come back to the important issue of those "Test Results" vs actual real production rates and volumes. It's worth imo just reviewing the news flow of figures that were touted for LM#20 both in terms of the oil production and gas production:

Jan 20th 2015 - "The LM20 produced 24 hour test results of 260 barrels of oil and 500 mcf of natural gas per day"
(Source - RRR RNS)

Mar 7th 2016- "the well . . . has been tested at a rate as high as 325 barrels of oil per day . . . SCDI has advised that it intends to produce the well consistently at between 200 and 225 BOPD. In addition to oil production, gross natural gas volumes in excess of 250 thousand cubic feet per day"
(Source - RRR RNS)

July 14th 2016 - "Lutcher Moore #20 ("LM20") now producing 100 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD")"
No further mention of gas
(Source - RRR RNS)

So to recap . .

In terms of oil we were told that TESTS showed as much as 325 bopd, that SCDI would run it at 200-225 bopd and then that ACTUAL rate was actually just 100 bopd !

In terms of gas we were told that TESTS showed 500 mcf, then later we were told "in excess of 250 thousand cubic feet per day" and then last production update the gas wasn't mentioned at all.

Now the new kid on the block is suddenly LM#14 and once again we have TEST results which the regs here are pumping for all they are worth. Forgive me then if I don't buy the ramping.

The ACTUAL rates are what count together with the actual costs of production and the actual take-home revenue produced. This detail is lacking. The crew here would have us invest early on the pure speculation of what those actual results may be. With the recent disappointment of LM#20 still in the air, and the clear warning today of a funding requirement of "less than $450,000", I'm not eager to exchange hard cash for shares which will . . imo . . l
Thu 12:18

Glennyboy - "Final results 30th June"

Are you refering to the mention in there of the previous placing in April which raised GBP 500,000 ?

That money was for the Mayan Drilling Fluids remediation plant and working capital.

Aside from that the Final Results you mention also stated that NCT expended $4.3m in "Other Administrative Expenses" for the year which equates to approx $360,000 per month or GBP 272,000.

We are now at the end of July so at the above rate expenses alone for May and June would be more than GBP 500,000 (if costs have not been cut). If you think those numbers are incorrect by all means highlight.

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