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Caps Lock on… DAVID LENIGAS on this week’s Share Views!! Watch here

Share Views Episode 10 - DAVID LENIGAS talks Gatwick Gusher and AAAP


Member Info for MrMagic


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Member Since: Mon, 13th Jun 2011

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 9,248
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 167

Last Posted: Tue 15:49


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Tue 15:49

Again nice rhetoric Orslega but doesn't gel with what has actually happened.

The company raised GBP 450,000 in March this year via the issuing of 1.4 billion shares
The company raised GBP 500,000 in April this year via the issuing of 1.5 billion shares
and the latest is
The company raised GBP 500,000 on 1st Sep via the issue of some 3.5 billion shares

Sorry but I'm just not seeing all these JVs and mega buyers out there ready to throw money our way.

Orslega - "Some people need to think outside the box rather than get hung up about financing"

I beg to differ sir. Some people need to pull their heads out of the sand and appraise what HAS happened vs what they hoped/dreamed/expected WOULD happen.
Tue 09:25

"#myn lm14 alone will account for current Mcap"

Sounds great doesn't it until you take a proper look and realise that there is more to account for than just the MCAP. Last year the company spent $4.3m on Other Admin Expenses and $808,000 on key management remunerations whilst having a Revenue of just $841,000. I can't see LM#14 accounting for all of that by itself can you? LM#20 well, much hyped, was subsequently reported as just delivering a net 20 bopd to MYN. Will be interesting to see how the LM#14 production figures stack up against test figures when they are eventually published.
Tue 09:20

Spikeyj - "volume remains tiny. stalemate continues, buyers' strike while waiting for placees to dump (or for more
news on financing), placees trying to wait until a spike on news."

Pretty much sums it up for me too. I suspect a few placees sold for a loss and got out as best they could after the SP dropped quickly below the placing price. The 50m sold recently at 0.011p for example. Just speculating.

I guess the placees could be worried another discounted placing and the SP tanking again leaving them high and dry. I guess, yer pays yer money and takes yer chance, as they say. Volume understandably dead given the company announcement that "additional funding" is required to implement the Shoats Creek strategy (RNS 1st Sep)
Mon 12:41

Stuy - "Sentiment is at an all time low and the company really do need to address this through PR and not just to bang out a new website"

You can't fix the funding issues with a bit of PR. Sentiment was destroyed, imo, back in Mar/Apr with the 2 discounted placings with Cornhill Capital conducted at that time. The SP was decimated. This latest placing for another 3.5 billion shares at circa 35% discount serves only to re-inforce that poor sentiment. Nothing will change here now imo until those fundraising mechanisms are changed. The prospects are great but the dilution negates the value somewhat. PI's are not stupid. They've sat through 3 of these "death spiral" placigs this year and are not likely to forget about them as a result of a bit of slick PR.

Stuy - "the SP is sitting at a rediculous low price and I'm sure MYN want this up ASAP, not only for shareholders, but the higher the SP, the easier it is to raise finance for ongoing and future projects. "

I don't follow this logic TBH. The SP is largely immaterial to AIM companies imo unless and until it starts to reach the nominal share price where issuing more shares then becomes a problem. Many AIM companies simply issue more and more shares with people like YAG, Darwin, Cornhill etc, simply giving them discounted shares which they flip into the market. The SP is largely irrelevant imo. The exception would be if the company wants other large companies to take it seriously. With an SP in the hundreths of a penny it just doesn't imo look professional and that perception is exacerbated imo when the company puts out RNSs with "school boy" errors in them. It doesn't reflect well on the NOMAD either. Not surprising then that many are expecting a share consolidation to get the SP to a "respectable" level.

The SP is where it is imo because the company has gotten into bed with Cornhill and is engaged in discounted placings and has done so whilst continuing to burn huge amounts on Admin Expenses and whilst the key management take $000s in remunerations. That poisition is untennable imo and must change.
SP was 0.06p at the start of the year. 3 "death spiral" placings later and today it sits around 0.013p.
There is no mystery here. The SP will continue to perform this way imo until the company ceases diluting and the warnings of "additional funding" in the 1st Sept RNS suggest to me that they won't cease anytime soon. DYOR.
Sun 14:12

I agree CDE22 that the company is being/has been open and upfront about its funding requirements, essentially, imo, forewarning people that a fundraise is imminent.

If you had invested just a few weeks back in Aug thinking all these US major/Pemex opportunities were imminently going to provide $billions then you would have paid something like 0.025p for shares and today you would be staring at a 50% loss. Maths being what it is then dictates that you would need the share to rise 100%(bag) just to get back to break even point. Not a pleasant position to be in imo.

I am in total agreement with you that more funding is needed (it's been RNS'd as you correctly highlight) and that creates a problem for me in terms of investment consideration at this point. Timing is everything. I have posted on numerous occasions (much to the angst of the rampers here) that the last Annual Report shows that the company expended $4.3m on "Other Admin Expenses" (to Dec 31st) which equates to approx $358,000 per month. Revenue was just $841,000 in comparison and key management also took $808,000 in total remunerations.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/northcote-energy-ltd--nct-/prn/final-results/20160630172937P5820/

Recent RNSs tell us that costs are now being cut though there has been no numeric detail given afaik. Nevertheless, one can see that with those kind of monthly numbers you need some very strong producing assets with high revenue to make a dent and avoid further dilution. For what it is worth I think MYN could eventually get there but I can't see it happening any time soon. Even if LM#14 were to start pumping gas tomorrow, it would simply generate a monthly revenue, there wouldn't suddenly be $millions materialised out of thin air. The RNS of 28th July stated in relation to LM#14 that Northcote’s net production at Shoats Creek is expected to increase from 20 barrels of oil per day equiv to 110 barrels of oil per day. Do the maths. If you can get 110 bopd to come out to anywhere near $300,000 per month then I'd like to see the figures. Of course with a number of wells producing like that and with accompanying cost cuts then it is certainly achieveable for SC to underpin the company running costs but how long it will take to get to such a position is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, we are left dodging the dilutions with Cornhill Capital.

The strategy being followed is absolutely sound imo, get assets producing enough revenue to underpin running costs and seek bigger opportunities elsewhere but time as ever, is the key factor. The long term prospects could pay dividends, no question about that, but the journey to that point and avoiding being diluted along the way is the risk. Running alongside that issue, for me, is the untennable position of lots of key management taking many $000s in remunerations whilst they happily dilute shareholders. That is a situation that needs to change imo.
Sat 15:12

NDA's go hand in hand with LOI's don't they? The whole point of the LOI is to pave the way for discussions and negotiations, setting the boundaries and targets of what any negotiations will try to achieve. Very par for the course for such negotiations to have confidentialty about them. RRR vets know this well. Production figures of the El Limon gold mine were witheld for months and months when the company was in discussions with a potential buyer. Turned out the discussions went nowhere. Over a year ticked by. Then later, another buyer entered discussions and so on. Long process, all kept in confidentiality. The Pemex LOI has been RNS'd of course so discussions/negotiations will ensure and we can but wait to see what transpires.
Sat 14:01

Hrdly old news lols. 1st Sept, just 2-3 weeks ago:

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MYN&ArticleCode=cu6xf1lq&ArticleHeadline=Board_Changes_Placing_Corporate_Update

The March placing was followed by another in April just a few weeks after, Hence I'm watching the trades here diligently incase of a repeat performance.
Sat 13:22

Talk some sense then. You're all talking about big deals, US majors etc. Meanwhile the company has already increased the share issue this year from over 6 billion to 13.5 billion. The reality just doesn't match the dreaming imo.
Sat 13:04

"but when you have several giant parties knocking on your Dallas door expressing serious interests" . . .

Yes, but it's a shame don't you think, that thus far those serious interests haven't resulted in them funding $milions here. Instead the company raised GBP500,000 by issuing 3.5 billion shares at discount with Cornhill Capital and then made it clear that "additional funding" is still required. What gives?
Fri 10:45

Point of note. Bustabolsa account appears to be still there, just his posts removed, so maybe not a multi-accounter. Post removal understandable.


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