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Member Info for MrMagic


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Member Since: Mon, 13th Jun 2011

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 9,806
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 200

Last Posted: Tue 19:08


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Tue 19:08

I agree with labratt, the RNS news today is disappointing. Lots of issues. Equally disappointing that the resident company apologists here can never be honest and say it like it is, warts n all.

I'm interested in people's views of this particular RNS statement:

"LM 20 . . . The consensus view is that the installation of a Mono well pump will remove the sand which is clogging the well, thereby creating conditions which will enable fluids to flow once again"

Does this mean that currently no fluids are flowing then? i.e. does that mean that there is no production at all at LM#20?
Tue 18:50

Mayan Energy, formerly Northcote Energy, have put out an RNS today giving an update on operations at Shoats Creek.

RRR in their recent SC update (12th Jan) said of the LM#20 well:

"a variety of down-well factors have kept production levels from stabilizing as desired. The Company expects ultimate production levels to stabilize in the region of 70 BOPD. This will result in 14 BOPD net to Red Rock"

However, Mayan in their RNS today have said:

"LM 20: . . . . has suffered from sand ingression problems. The consensus view is that the installation of a Mono well pump will remove the sand which is clogging the well, thereby creating conditions which will enable fluids to flow once again, but which will still retain the integrity of the well. The intention is to start the next stage of the rework the week commending 6 March 2017, with expected results the same week. Further announcements concerning this well will be made as it develops."

The wording "which will enable fluids to flow once again" is interesting. Does that mean there is currently no production at the well?

Mayan also say in their RNS:

"LM13, LM14 and LM20 are the current focus of the Company’s operational and resources at Shoats Creek with the other development wells and opportunities currently on hold until progress has been made thereon."

This obviously means that Mayan are not focussing on the drills for LM#21/ LM#22 wells that RRR are participating in.

The LM# 14 well is also suffering. Mayan's RNS said:

"As announced on 12 January 2017, gas production remains blocked on this well. Negotiations have recently been concluded with GCW, who have agreed to take a 50% WI in this well- reducing the Company’s WI stake to 20%. Remedial work on this well will be recommenced once the results of the LM 13 and LM 20 have been validated."
Sun 17:49

Mt Ida royalty would seem to be a good long term future earner for RRR Noirua but we are surely some years away from that project being developed and operated imo. Would you not agree?

Jupiter mothballed Mt Ida back in 2012. Here's a news article that explained why they did it:

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Jupiter-puts-Mount-Ida-in-mothballs

Reasons for mothballing the project indefinitely included higher cost estimates, poor iron ore price and strong Australian dollar. It also mentions that a 2011 scoping study suggested it would cost $1.6 BILLION to develop the project.

At the time Jupiter made the decision to mothball Mt Ida, the iron ore price was around $120. See the historic (2nd) graph here:

http://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-ore

Logic suggests to me personally that whilst the iron ore price remains below the $120 mark, Jupiter would likely not want to expend such an enormous sum of money developing Mt Ida. Iron ore price has been rising but is still only around $85 so I can't personally see the project being un-mothballed for some time yet. I presume also that Jupiter would want to be sure that the iron ore price had not only risen to a high enough level but was in a stable position, i.e. not likely to fall back down again. Even when Mt Ida is eventually re-visited, how long will it take to actually develop and bring into production? Overall I guess that we are some years away from actually receiving any royalty from this particular project, would you agree?
Thu 18:01

Seems our resident rampster Jonnstone has passed on. No longer shows as a member. Now he'll never be able to say "I told you so". Still I see that St.George is still busily posting and First_Timer so perhaps we may hear something !
15 Feb '17

The only thing that rerates here is the number of shares in issue and that particular rerate happens every year with monotonous regularity ! This year AB has secured authority to issue up to 500m more shares.

2017 began with approx 467m bits of confetti in issue. Adding another 500m would be significant imo.
14 Feb '17

Of course he could just use the money to go buy more Jupiter shares. Problem is he'd then have to put out an RNS stating how many were bought and for how much and then the markets would see the true value of Jupiter shares which imo will be significantly less than the buy back price. Once that cat is out of the bag, what is left for the rampsters to ramp?
13 Feb '17

Except that over at RGM, AB invested in Westport Energy PLC and one of its directors is Brian James Kinane who was formally an LLP Designated Member for Yorkville Advisors UK LLP. Small world eh?
11 Feb '17

Richy : "We need to get some serious volume . 1 billion shares is only 5 percent of the company"

Unlikely to happen imo given the finances here. Even the recent interims highlighted the situation:

Revenue was just $50k
Cost of Sales was $241k

Other Admin Expenses were over $1 million

The company clearly needs income/revenue.

Last year started out with 6 to 7 billion shares in issue (as NCT) and ended with over 21 billion in issue. The placings were largely done at significant discount to the prevailing SP. Potential deals with majors are fine and dandy, but cash is king so unless projects actually start returning significant revenue, it is reasonable/logical to expect the dilution to continue. That's the reason the SP has gone sub 0.01p imo.
10 Feb '17

Same old rampsters dipping their toes in the water to judge the lay of the land. Clearly planning on another ramp campaign on the run up to the coming Jupiter payment of circa £530k. I won't be falling for the tiresome rhetoric and sound bites they will spew every 10 mins when it starts. The Jupiter payment is now already priced in here, announced back in Nov 2016 and details confirmed earlier in Jan 2017. It's just £530k which is small fry compared to the wider costs here imo.

Not much else to look forward to that I can see:

El Limon prom note and royalties are now involved in legal disputes
Kenya is in legal disputes
Greenland went nowhere
Ivory Coast went nowhere
Shoats Creek has gone nowhere, LM#20 production issues resulting in just 14bopd net to RRR
LM#21/22 wells have failed to be even been drilled, now over a year late !
I could go on . . .

Must be almost time for the next "new kid on the block" fanciful venture ! DYOR.
10 Feb '17

lols noirua !

The past is also the present and the future and will remain that way until the BoD either move on or change their MO. Same with RGM.

Checklist:

Still requesting authority to issue shed loads of shares at the AGMs ? - Tick (up to 500m more this year)
Still issuing the confetti ? - Tick
Still got high Admin/Explr Expenses ? - Tick (£878,119)
Still got tiny revenue/income - Tick
Directors still taking silly salaries/emoluments? - Tick (£270,871)
Directors still granting themselves options - Tick
Directors still got no real personal skin in the game (> 3%) - Tick

Looks very much like the past is still present imo.

CEO Richard Poulden explained it well in his presentation at the UK Investor Show at the NEC when he said of AIM mining stocks:

"You should look at how much management own of the company, it's very important.
If they only own 3%, they'll go out and raise money to pay themselves as day follows night.
The next thing is you should look at the G and A (General and Admin) costs, tremendously important.
How much money is actually going into the ground ?
Are they paying themselves stupid salaries ?
How much skin do they have in the game
And that really . . . that will give you the best stock picks.

Nuff said imo


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