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Member Info for JDwag


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Member Since: Mon, 16th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 5,584
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 115

Last Posted: Tue 20:16


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Tue 20:16

Yes, more detail is needed.

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say Tranches C and D will be paid on time / schedule as these are stand alone payments and these also carry the biggest Interest / Libor Rates, if any deferral makes 'sense' it is Tranche B, this will I imagine be ticking over accruing interest at the rate set out in the BFS / Loan Agreement which if memory serves correct was Libor (at a 2% minimum) plus 5%, so 7% year interest is accruing on the Tranche B USD$80m Loan.......so if the Tranche B Loan was delayed by exactly 12 months to the first repayment your probably looking at an additional USD$6m or so payments over the life of the Loan, not a killer, by any means as long as Tranch B starts being repaid this year sometime (possibly in November is my guess) 12 months on from the original loan agreement.

Orion will never pull the plug here, it's just a question of will there be anything left for shareholders after the loan is paid of fun 2020/2021?

I think yes, as Cu Prices can't stay down here forever, just a patience game!

JD
Tue 19:21

Slightly puzzled why this is neccesery for the first half payment of USD$2.25 plus interest?

I can only assume that with the large first full payment and Tranches C and D (which is the bulk of the hill to get over) coming up late in the year that they have decided that the house must really be in order before letting WTI make their own way in the world.

Possibly the thought of coming back for more money in November wasn't something the Board, Orion and Shsreholders would have tolerated and best to build the cash position now. Just a delay in the overall long game I guess.

JD
Mon 13:03

Also, a big consideration is the revised LoM C1 Costs in a 20k per annum scenario, USD$3,785 (RNS 15 Dec) is a healthy figure considering you still have the FX deductions to apply against the NAB$/USD$ and any other efficiency savings (also the reduced cost of the acid as well).

I truly see a C1 Cash Cost below USD$3000 per tonne long before 2016 is out.

JD
Sat 14:27

Also worth remembering is that S&P is considering downgrading the ZAR (to which the NAB$ is pegged against) to Junk Status in June due to the state of the South African economy, which with U.S interests will almost certainly help us on the currency side of things.

Hopefully an update next week on debt and progress generally.

JD
Fri 15:00

When looking at the ‘base’ long term US$ / NAM$ used in the BFS assumptions of December 2012 how much of a benefit to C1 Cash Costs are folks looking for when everything has bedded down and the mine is operating (plus or minus a few percentage points) within the assumptions of the BFS?

Given that they used a US$ / NAM$ long term ‘base’ rate of 1 US$ / 8.72 NAM$ in the BFS and that today that is currently 1 US$ / 15.50 NAM$ this is now some 78% above those ‘base’ rate calculations. Given the Weatherly Investment Prospectus (can’t seem to find it at present) stated that approximately 80% of all C1 Cash Costs where / will be encountered in NAM$ that ‘could’ (I really stress could) result in a purely theoretical saving of some 62% when taken across the approximately 80% of all C1 Cash Costs where encountered in NAM$!!!

Even totally discluding the 9% savings in the LoM C1 Cash Costs and the deduction in C1 Cash Costs in the event annual production goes to 20k per annum as outlined in the RNS 15 December 2015 (Tschudi Reserve and Processing Update) which would provide even more savings, if this was completely born out using all of the assumptions of the original numbers in the BFS assumptions of December 2012 against just that of the currency movements then we would reasonably expect to see a C1 Cash Cost of approximately US$2,650!!!

Wildly Optimistic?

JD
Fri 14:38

Well, Annual Report Tuesday then hopefully into real news in June, some strange SP action these lasts two days on no volume, so who really knows what is up, what will keep us up is real news however, not long, hopefully!

JD
Thu 13:24

Great post Boffin. Yes, I expect an RNS on Tue / Wed to confirm that the first tranche has been made (or not) by the 31 May deadline.

I'm also half expecting for them to also tell us that the annual production is now at or close to be at pro rata 20k.

As funds says, confidence is critical and positive updates on debt and the next quarterly update should put this on a new footing altogether.

JD
25 May '16

‘The Company's cash reserves were US$4.0 million as at 30 November 2015. Together with the proceeds from Facility D, which will be drawn immediately, these will be used to complete the transition of Central Operations to project development status, to complete the Stage 1B heap leach pad extension at Tschudi, and for general working capital purposes.’ 21 Dec 2015.

Everything I have researched has told me that the Stage 1B heap leach pad extension to 20k should now be fully operational (and it was in construction over 5 months ago), I expect this to be clarified to the market in the next update.

USD$ / NAM$ back to 1 / 15.7 as well.

JD
25 May '16

The debt repayments have to be a given to start being repaid on 31st May from the knowledge we already have, no?

As per the interim results ‘The Group had cash of US$2.8m at 31 December 2015 and had US$3.7m of unpaid inventory delivered to Walvis Bay. US$2m of delayed VAT payments were received in the first week of January.’ So in very early January 2016 we had US$8.5m cash on the books.

Add in the US$5.8m revenues (after C1 Costs) made in Q1 (US$1,313 profit (after C1 Costs) per tonne at 4442 tonnes) and at the end of Q1 2016 (even after deducting the pro rata US$0.5m or so the ‘Group’ needs to operate on a quarterly basis) the cash on books would be approximately US$13.8m as of 31 March 2016!

Even if Tschudi stands still with no production increase or improvements of C1 Costs with the price fix of US$4,912 for Q2 2016 then the revenues (after C1 Costs) of approximately US$6.5m (deduct the US$0.5m or so the ‘Group’ needs to operate on a quarterly basis) and the cash on books end of Q2 2016 will be approximately US$19.8m (GBP£13.5m approximately) or double our current market cap!

This is before any further C1 Cost Improvements (expected IMHO) or upgrades to 20k per annum (which I expect to be confirmed very soon) and two full quarters of revenue for 2016 still to add.

I strongly expect the debt to start being repaid in the next few days and at this point even with the price of Cu being currently at US$4,600 per tonne I expect all debts to be repaid from now on too.

Screaming buy surely?

JD
25 May '16

After the Annual Results where published the Non-Executives took all their back pay in Shares, would be once to see that again this time round, would show some real confidence.

JD


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