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Fund Manager Chris Bailey talks about an opportunist 2017 for investors


Member Info for JDwag


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Member Since: Mon, 16th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 5,872
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 47

Last Posted: Today 17:03


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Today 17:03

I'll say the update is tomorrow with that late flurry of buys (very similar to the trading action late on in the afternoon of 19 October, before the quarterly update on 20 October).

I also think it will be solid. Although solid has a wide range of course.

JD
Tue 20:01

Yes, that sums it up pretty well!

The C1 Costs in the last Q were $5,073 against 'averaged' out (won't be accurate of course but for argument sake) monthly production numbers of 1,213 tonne per month. We don't know if nameplate was re-achieved on the 1st, 15th or 31st October. So you have to assume some of those awful results from Q3 have washed over into Q4.

For keeping my own feet on the ground I'll say all of October was running at the reduced average monthly rate of 1,213 tonne per month then Nov and Dec at 1,417 per month nameplate. So in my head if we get anything beyond 4,047 tonnes I'll see that as a very good result. If we see approx 4,047 then we have to expect an increased C1. That was roughly what the Tonnage produced in the 2015 Q4 was and the C1 Cost were $4,080, so If that is the tonnage then don't expect anything stellar in the C1 Costs either. But to be honest after the July Q2 update shocker. I'll be happy with those numbers come end of Q4 2016 as it could have been a lot worse with the water ingress. That will allow us to build for a good 2017.

As for income? For $5m in the Q then at 4,047 tonnes you'd need a delta of $1,250 per tonne? Probably won't be far off as October was all below $5k per tonne and we have the Orion fix to deduct after that in Nov and Dec.

JD
Tue 08:24

Never noticed that before. The also map out the financial Calender for the year. They also do caveat it with an 'Estimae' date.

JD
Tue 07:40

Interesting miss by Rio Tinto on its Copper division, 2016 saw less Cu being produced across three of its major mining interests in Cu and 2017 obviously is very uncertain hence the very large guidance range.

Would be nice if a few of the other majors reporting in the next week or so also reported problems in getting the Ore out of the ground, drip, drip and all that on supply side.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/rio-lifts-fullyear-iron-ore-shipments-3/news-story/5bc8805c74721099836d40bbeaac08a9

JD
Mon 13:25

Some nice buying today and has turned the spread very tight indeed, which is always encouraging. Let’s hope for a nice run into Thursday (assuming the update is Thursday) and please let it be a good one.

JD
Sun 23:08

Sounds reasonable, thanks.

JD
Sun 20:10

Your referring to Section 18 of the Annual Results?

It states $10.205m 'Metal in concentrate on hand' and 'consumables'.

I don't quite know what that means or is referring to to be honest. Tschudi doesn't produce 'concentrate' it's refined copper it produces. Anyone care to enlighten me?

JD
Sat 15:58

Yes, I know what you mean, we've been kicked in the face here so often I'm still half expecting the company to come out on Thursday and tell us production has stopped due to finding a crashed UFO at the bottom of the Mine pit.

JD
Fri 22:44

Check out the COMEX Price action tonigh! Copper had a late surge up 1.3% on the day. Now within $60 of $6k per tonne.

If they hit their straps and deliver even just marginally better than their C1 Costs advertised and when the Orion Fix runs out we are looking at a clean (and growing) delta of $2k+ per tonne.

Escondida strike looms (see below), Indonesia Ore Ban imposed, the problems are mounting on the Cu Supply side. Could be looking at something rather special in the making. But they need to hut that next Update bang on!

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3653883/base-metals/Contract-talks-break-down-at-Escondida-copper-mine-again-BHP-Billiton-rejects-unions-demands.html

JD
Fri 17:22

Cu showing remarkable resilience ATM, was down 1% then about turned after data out of the US and is now at $2.688 a Lb / $5,918.

Big, big Q1 / Q2 coming up, need to see what Trump / Congress (because it will be the Republican Congress Plan of course) propose in the way of Tax Cuts / Fiscal Stimulus / Infrastructure Package / Repatriation of Corporate Profits Overseas, etc. If they get it right, Cu could fly Q1 / Q2.

JD


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