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Share Views Episode 13 - Ferrum Crescent Exec-Chairman Justin Tooth talks on his re-structuring strategy and exciting new projects

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Member Since: Mon, 16th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 5,728
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 24

Last Posted: Wed 18:05

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Wed 18:05

The real fireworks will come next week when Gordhan is in court, if he looks like he is on his way out expect the ZAR to tank (followed by a Credit Downgrade shortly after).

All a bigger play in SA to have control of the National Treasury and control of the purse strings for bonkers projects like the Nuclear Plant Building Programme (1.3 Trillion ZAR / USD$100 Billion) Zuma and his cohort want to build which will double the national debt and which Gordhan as sworn to repel.

I’m still scratching my head at how calm the USD / ZAR is despite what 50 / 50% economic / political maelstrom awaits……

Mon 12:32

Oh yes, very much still here, just waiting for the bigger ticket items to land.

Sat 15:15

Not as far fetched as some may think.

Pravin Gordhan (finance minister) is in court on 2nd Nov on fraud charges (this is just a small part of the ongoing internal ANC war) if he is sacked / resigns for whatever reason the rand will take a nosedive as it will be construed that Jacob Zuma will then install a finance minister a lot more 'compliant' to him and his cohort.

Add on to that a 50/50 chance of a credit downgrade (to junk) in December (if Gordhan is removed it will be higher odds than that) and a US Interest Rate Rise which will cause massive issues for developing countries like SA, then it's more that possible to go to $1/ZAR20+.

20 Oct '16

The only C1 Costs we have to work with are the original (contained in the Tschudi Executive Summary 2013):

And the updated C1 Costs from the Updated Reserve RNS of 15 Dec 2015:

It really is a complete finger in the air job due to the scandalous amount of information this company releases….

20 Oct '16

Some lean months ahead of us that is for sure, if and or when they sort this mess out, at current Cu Prices I doubt they will pay the Tranche D due in December either, that, means all of the Tranche B, C and D Loans all gets rolled over until 28 Feb 2017, that is (as of 30 June) USD$105m and will be north of USD$110m+ come then. Lots of uncertainty and I doubt a great deal will happen to the SP between now and Feb 2017 until the new terms of the repayment schedule are known, which will happen, the question, as it has always been, is what is left for us mere PIs at the end of all of this and Orion get their cash back.

20 Oct '16

Actually, just thinking about it again, they mentioned 'dewatering boreholes' which suggest a multi sump system to me, actually suggests to me that the water is being dealt with using a 'beefed' up traditional dewatering system using pumps (probably larger capacity pumps), that's a positive as that is a traditional system that the extra capacity shouldn't actually add 'too' much more to the C1 Costs going forward (extra fuel, etc) past the obvious CAPEX costs which have obviously helped to blow out the C1 Costs this quarter, seems like they have avoided going for something much more expensive such as a grouting ground consolidation technique.

20 Oct '16

Okay, so 3,641 tonnes at C1 Costs of $5,073 against an average price sale per tonne of, oh that's right they have forgotten to tell us that part so we can't do the sums ourselves (quite deliberate that).

Maybe lost in the region of approx $300 per tonne so let's say approx $1m - $1.1m loss for the Quarter!!! Disgrace they don't tell us the sale price.

On the positives it seems to be going to 'schedule' so we have that going for us and they have stacked considerably more Ore this quarter which is needed to help with the leaching / recovery rates so that is going in the right direction, also the Ore Grade is at 0.89%, if they don't mess up again (big ask on their track record) then they should be able to plate way above 1,417 per month tonnes of Cu.

A hold!!!!

18 Oct '16

Yes, as spoken of here previously, I have resigned myself to a very bad quarterly update, I would imagine the initial CAPEX expenditure to fix the water inflow issues would be sufficiently large enough to tip our C1 Costs comfortably over our average price per tonne sales achieved for the Quarter.

Good news for me is still being on target to achieve nameplate later in 2016, not the headline hit / losses probably achieved in the quarter.

Although the market will do what it will do in terms of short range SP.

18 Oct '16

Just had a chance to re-read the results in full.

If you go all the way down to the 'risk' section you will see as of 30 June they were waiting on USD$6.1m in VAT payments from the Namibian Government.

Would put cash on hand at USD$12m when that payment is realised onto the WTI accounts.

Hopefully Q3 Resukts Wed / Thur this week, don't really want another Friday RNS.

14 Oct '16

Yes, hard to tell exactly, but based on a 15% reduction in nameplate from July to November (and December being at full nameplate again) you would have to be looking at approx. 1550+ tonnes of Cu per month (18,600 on an annualised basis) from December 2016 to June 2017 , would be nice if that number was tested / exceeded going into next……….


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