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EXCLUSIVE: Robin Young, CEO, Amur Minerals #AMC talks long-term strategy

Member Info for CaliBob

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Member Since: Mon, 20th Sep 2010

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 42
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 0

Last Posted: 28 Aug '12

28 Aug '12

Quite hard to digest in a number of ways really. The mild weather had a MUCH bigger impact than I (and probably RIIG too) initially thought. 6 months loss of nearly £700k...

On the flip side, a number of explanations and future (non-weather related) news came out of the woodwork. The mild weather meant a delay in a new contract, probably along the line of a retainer plus commision based contract - as the weather remained mild, the client obviously didn't want to fully commit, they now have done so. iTeam & Verify have had a number of opportunities commence through July & August (including the £750k PPI contract), consultancy for claims efficiency with a top 10 insurer and an alliance for training/apprenticeships with a partner.

JF's comments:

"While the results for the first six months are both disappointing and indeed frustrating they should not be taken out of context of the overall picture for the Group going forward.

"We have successfully broadened the range of services we provide to our markets and continue to win new business from both existing and new clients. Weather related claims will always be part of our business but are being diluted by growth in other areas such as motor, personal injury and PPI. We are confident with our existing pipeline and recent contract gains in the second half will see a significant improvement giving a strong and solid platform going forward."

As the adverse weather from April onwards has been quite unseasonal that should erase some of the losses but I doubt myself it will cover the £700k. If the losses had been kept to a £300k level, that may have been possible. Any profit made 2nd half will now probably be there to offset the poor H1.

The main interesting point about the RNS is the private placement of 40,000,000 shares during August of which generated £200k for working capital, at a premium price of 0.50p! This is not only very uplifting, but to place these with existing shareholders at a current 50% premium to SP is an almighty achievement! This alone I believe stopped the drop this morning (albeit .25-.35 was briefly shown after a measly 19k share sale).

RIIG actively moving into other areas is now fully in motion to not put such a large dependancy on weather-related claims. Had it been a seasonal December 11 - April 12 this would have been a different story.

My opinion? Hold / Buy. It is a knock back on the progress the group have made over the course of the last 3 years or so, but are reacting positively and have a much more solid base to work from.
24 Aug '12

Trading volumes increasing over last few days after a period of nothing, anyone buying/lowering averages?
7 Aug '12

The 300k is a buy as I tried a dummy 500k buy and got offered 0.325. Sells generally on this share no matter how small go to NT.
26 Jul '12

I understand your reasoning, but I think some have already been landed. The profit from operations for 2011 was 80k before any nonrecurring costs which works out at 25k H1 and 55k H2 approx. Apart from what we know about the investment in training, I do not believe there are many (if any) costs coming for this half.

The contracts landed at the end of 2011 will also now be at a point where they are revenue generative so should be aiding the cause. The contract only recently announed for PPI will only affect H2 but it is estimated that it will generate around 750k in revenue - 20% of last years total amount in one financial half, from one contract - that bodes well for the future.

It is purely my estimation is the 50k before costs, but I think its not too outward and very possible to be achieved. I certainly don't expect it to be less than last year.

I certainly agree we need more contracts in more areas, and the email I received from John French backs up that they are pushing for that to happen - moving from the usual weather related claims into more diverse less restrictive areas.
22 Jul '12

Due within the next three weeks or so I would say.

With the mild winter, countered by the recent wet weather, coupled with the end of year contract wins, I'm hoping for a H1 2012 profit of at around £50k. This being before any outward expenses of which I do not believe they'll be any. This would be a 100% increase on H1 of 2011. What do others think?
27 Jun '12

I agree, and I can say I'm one of those investors. Obviously looking at red dampens the spirit yet I'm confident of at least returning my investment even if not profiting from it. At the same time, the extra limited funds I have available I'd rather save/spend on other ventures instead of chasing down my average. The slow burn is probably the fundamental reason for this. I'm very happy for my current holding to sit and wait whilst I take more time in other interests.
27 Jun '12

I'm not so sure on if they are sells, as todays trades for 537k total are all at bid albeit in 2x 100k, 1x 337k chunks. I have 415k and have never been able to get a firm sell price on the lot, yet I could buy easily the same amount for just above bid (0.401-0.405). This also falls inline with the experience you had on the 19th where selling wasn't an option but buying was.

I firmly believe the MMs are playing this one to their tune, but I think both buyers and sellers are at a stalemate until firm upward movement - enough for those wanting to offload, together with a trend reversal for those studying to buy. I don't think lowering this any further would be a benefit to MMs or investors.
18 May '12

They came in Thursdays RNS. Progress made, just not to the levels of profit some were expecting (still in a loss) however it was noted that the mild winter had a lesser impact on the number of claims. Still very much encouraging as MadChatter says.
17 Apr '12

The last trade I see was 8:02 - all I can think is that you are the one that bought this morning and your blantantly ramping your purchase. There isn't a 320k or 500k buy I can see. No need for it, no need at all and if anything highly annoying.
11 Apr '12

Volume steadily increasing over the last couple of days, still minimal (and varied) but sign that life is coming back to RIIG at the right time.

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