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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Member Info for Broxburn68


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Member Since: Wed, 7th Sep 2016

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 251
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 16

Last Posted: Sat 15:26


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




28 Mar '18

I must say that I do find this downward trajectory of the share price a bit puzzling. It's hard to see much of a downside compared to where the company was a year or so ago or more, but the potential upside surely seems to be still intact. It does seem that if there IS any concrete news about signed and sealed larger scale contracts, this one could take off quite dramatically, and quickly.

Still looks like a longer term play to me (months rather than years mind you), but at this SP I had to have a small top up! Let's see what transpires I suppose.
21 Mar '18

The long term contract price of Uranium, which IMHO is by far the biggest driver with regard to the share price of BKY, is now at it's lowest level since July 2005. We are surely reaching the inflection point on this graph, especially taking into account the latest production cuts and a suggestion from many observers that we are now about to enter into a supply side deficit.

https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price

I see there are still a number of these dark pool trades showing from IIs selling from a short term perspective, but it is surely a matter of time before there is a marked reversal from this decline in the price Uranium, and indeed the stagnation of the BKY SP. Just when.

Maybe the resource update we were due in Q1 was the information in the half year report; drilling and exploration is concentrated around Salamanca I and II rather than Zona 7 apparently. Can't factor in the Omani loan as suppressing the SP here personally.
9 Mar '18

Yes, well spotted omalik92. Bit strange that this RNS has not appeared on this site; I checked the London Stock Exchange and apparently an RNS was issued on Tuesday afternoon with regard to this disposal. AP still retain 85%+ of their holding mind you.
9 Mar '18

This certainly doesn't seem to be company specific. Using Global X as a proxy for the uranium sector as a whole, in the last three months, BKY down 14.53%, Global X down 18.35%. In the last year, BKY down 9.09%, Global X down 16.78%. Uranium still just unloved in general at the moment.
These IIs need to take a much shorter outlook on returns than us PIs in order to meet monthly/ quarterly/ yearly targets. We have the advantage of being able to hold out for a much longer term perspective on our investments, even if it all takes a bit longer than hoped for.
9 Mar '18

RNS from ASX: The recent dark pool trades must have involved Anglo Pacific reducing their holding in BKY by 2.734m shares. Begs the question of who has been buying these up I suppose since there has been minimal share price movement?

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180309/pdf/43s9r4h1cv90ng.pdf
6 Mar '18

Indeed. I'm new in here but even if there's a steady drip feed of initially small revenue streams like this, the potential of future gains and expansion are being steadily reinforced. I can't see anything negative so far.
6 Mar '18

Thanks strangerstill, it's great to hear that the project is progressing very nicely indeed and that more exciting news may be ahead. It certainly seems like BKY went the extra mile in providing for your visit; they continue to come across as an extremely professional and well run organisation.
5 Mar '18

I might have coined a new phrase in my ignorance...possibly "Blackpool" trades might be appropriate - I recall all the political conferences and wheeling and dealing which used to be done there!
I remember the Black Rock sell off too and agree with you that the SP is not following that downward trajectory thankfully. As you say we'll be wiser in due course.
5 Mar '18

I must confess to being a bit, well totally, ignorant with regard to dark pool trading, but have done a bit of research if it's of interest. They seem to be set up by third parties, eg Goldman Sachs as below, to minimize trading costs and price disruption of individual shares. The participants tend to be institutional investors. All trades seem to be at mid-price, so no clues here after all!

"A trading venue that does not have to provide information such as trade sizes or prices to the public prior to trades taking place, with the aim of getting large orders done with minimal price movement".

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-goldman-sachs-to-launch-new-dark-pool-for-stocks-on-friday-2017-5

"Dark pool operators aim to significantly reduce that part of the transaction cost attributed to the spread by offering buyers and sellers the opportunity (note opportunity - there�s no guarantee) to trade at the mid-price of the lit order book.
What is perhaps best known about dark pools is that they often see trades executed with much greater volume than what is available on the touch in the lit, while details of transactions are only made public after a trade has gone through".

https://itarle.com/blog/best-execution-dark-pools.html

"The objectives of a buy-side trader are simple: to source sufficient liquidity whilst minimising
information leakage and price impact".

https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/Comerton-Forde%2C%20Carole%20paper.pdf

For every buyer there has to be a seller, but there seems to be a much greater demand for trading BKY than is available on the open, or lit, market. Any opinion most welcome.
5 Mar '18

Another nice "black pool" trade today, omalik92 - �215k+. We'll find out soon enough who's buying if I'm right!
1 Mar '18

It's a bit of guesswork for sure, but for example if you look at the �162k trade at 14:31 yesterday at 48p, all trades prior to this on the day were 47.52 and below. The SP rose by over 1p after this trade, understandably. Similarly the �12k trade the day before was at a higher price than the trades immediately preceding it.

The bid/ ask/ price quoted on LSE can be a bit misleading; buys are often reported as sells as most who have traded here will know. For example, the trades at 47.999 on the 27th are almost certainly buys, whilst those at 47.25 will be sells.

It will be interesting to see if there is a "change in substantial holding" RNS in due course if this continues. There is a US fund, Global X, which trades exclusively in Uranium stocks worldwide which has a 25.3m+ share holding in BKY. It would be very encouraging if they are increasing their holding still further.

At this current SP who would think of selling anyway!!
1 Mar '18

If you look at the price and time traded, they look like buys to me. Interesting.
23 Feb '18

Indeed. There has been no refusal of any permits whatsoever in this project so far. In my humble opinion there are no signs or reasons to flag up that this may happen in future.

As an aside with regard to the Carillion/ Stifel, etc situations I really hope that auditors of these companies are brought to proper account. This has been a massive issue of self-interest in the part of the big four - signing off accounts which do not disclose material information and hide dubious accountancy practices to preserve large fee income is unacceptable. This has been going on for years (remember the RBS rights issue!). Without ranting too much further, it's the "small guys" such as employees and PIs who suffer.
23 Feb '18

I'm not sure they would be actually bound to say so through an RNS, NigWit, as the timescale for permits being granted is pretty open ended. Having said that, over 100 permits have already been granted, so there is an obvious strong level of compliance being met by BKY and agreed to by the authorities to date.
23 Feb '18

There have been countless articles in the Spanish press like this over the years; just check out the posts on the ADVFN bulletin board from "langostino". They do tend to come from "environmentalist" sources.The Portuguese concerns have been known for quite some time now, but even in this article there is a strong implication given that the Spanish government is behind the project.

As I've mentioned before, I do wonder if these issues have had an impact on the timescale of bringing the mine into full production; it would be good to get an update on this subject from BKY.

On balance, there may be further delays at worst, but there is no indication whatsoever that the project is under threat of non-completion. BKY would not have spent the last 10 years here, and I'm doubly sure the Omanis would have not invested if there was a likelihood of the development being blocked.
21 Feb '18

Thanks belgrano, the fact that there is no massive cash-burn needed to progress the business model was indeed a huge factor in investing here. I suppose we await more detail of the deals done in due course; SOH was understandably unable to provide much detail in his latest interview but exciting times ahead hopefully!
20 Feb '18

I've had OPTI on my watchlist for a while now and have finally bought in. It was first brought to my attention by TW, MF, et all but some further research persuaded me to take the plunge. SP looks like it's at a low point.
Cash control, BOD, huge potential market are big plusses and whilst being a highly specialised business, has more than one source of income stream. I doubt that this is a "get rich quick" share, but within a few years there is undoubted massive potential upside if all goes to plan. Good luck all!
16 Feb '18

This is the issue that I feel is most important at the moment as well, Tiger. It would be good to get some clarification about this from BKY. I believe we're due an update on drilling results in Q1 2018 so it would be nice to receive a progress update on permitting too.
I've read that the final permitting for radioactive use takes about two years (this must have been a year or so ago), but would not be able to provide anything like knowledgeable comment on this. I have also read that stage 1 permitting for radioactive use for Retortillo has been passed, but would not know exactly what this involved either! Even if there are delays/ problems it would be good to know either way.
2 Feb '18

That's very kind of you to offer us all here a report in March of your visit Strangerstill. I hope I don't come across as presumptuous, but I would be interested to find out whether or not permitting is proving to be somewhat more onerous than hoped. Maybe, alternatively, the delay in entering production may be strategic?
Anyway, have a great holiday!
23 Jan '18

Yep, fully agree with all the above. I remember when I first bought in here about 18 months ago, thinking yes....this is a long term play.....but in 18 months' time it should start to pay off nicely. Eighteen months later however, I'm still thinking in 18 months time......rinse & repeat! There also seemed to be a perceived lack of excitement in the RNS with regard to the forthcoming drill results - I suppose we'll find out in the next few weeks.

I must say that I remain impressed by the progress made on the project generally, even if it's all taking a bit longer than hoped. Bring on the takeover in 2020..???


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