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Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential

Member Info for AvatarIII

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Member Since: Tue, 6th Feb 2018

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 40
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 1

Last Posted: Tue 14:41

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

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Tue 14:41

Good time to sell! normally doesn't go much higher than this.
1 Apr '19

I knew it would hit 16, like clockwork.
28 Mar '19

Exactly Flatnose! I work for them too and yeah they are pretty reliable.
28 Mar '19

I just sold at 1584, I only sold a small number of shares compared with my total holding (sold ~180, still have over 1000).

The money is going to go towards summer holidays and home improvements.
28 Mar '19

I know i said 1580 was my selling point on 28th Feb, but these last few days make me think it might hit 1600. decisions decisions!
21 Mar '19

is it just me or does the tracker on this site say 1525 when the share price has actually shot up to 1547? I hope people aren't relying on this tracker to check the price.
7 Mar '19

From what I gather that was just the Chinese arm of GSK, not the company as a whole. There were also accusations that bribery in the pharmaceuticals industry in china was rife. The government decided they wanted to put a stop to it, and GSK was unlucky enough to be chosen to be made an example of.

Also the SFO have recently closed their investigation into it, and "concluded no further action [was] required"
4 Mar '19

Dividend has been consistent for the last few years. last time there was talk of reducing the dividend there was uproar and they backed off and continued the 80p/year. It's difficult to say what will happen in the future, especially with brexit looming but based on historical data it's quite a safe stock for dividend.
1 Mar '19

based on historical performance GSK hits it's annual lows in Oct-Dec with occasional smaller dips throughout the rest of the year, slowly recovering and peaking around July. This pattern has repeated since 2012, before which the pattern was reversed, interestingly, but I see no reason for the pattern to reverse again this year.

Brexit is an interesting thing this year though. Difficult to know where it is headed even with only a month to go.
28 Feb '19

This time laste year it was 1307, it was up to 1397 by end of March this dip is a blip.

Just 1 month ago it wax 1436 and still managed to hit 1581 in less than a month, yes people buying before ex-div helped that, but this share price can move around quite a lot over short periods.
28 Feb '19

it was 1581 just before exdiv, check previous years, share price normally hits a high some time around March/April
28 Feb '19

Looks like price is recovering after the bad dip yesterday. Here's hoping a gradual climb up to ~1580, which is my sell point, sooner rather than later.
20 Feb '19

I'm surprised too, it has closed higher today than yesterday but only by a little, i was expecting to maybe hit 16 today!
6 Feb '19

I didn't really expect it to be anything different, it has been 19p each for Q1-3 and 23p for Q4 for years now.
4 Feb '19

Also, it will pay to have stock in a multinational company over Brexit anyway. if the pound goes down, the GSK share price goes up to compensate.
4 Feb '19

Hold on, not long now until ex-div, which will probably be 23p, and then as i said the other day, the price typically goes up in the spring so if you can hold until late March or April I predict the share price will be in the the mid-high 1500s
28 Jan '19

Now seems like a good time to buy to get in before the next dividend. typically the Q4 dividend is 23p, I can't see it going down much more before ex-div.

If you look at previous years there tends to be an uptick in share price after Q4 ex-div except in 2008 for obvious reasons and 2014 when the price was still riding high after being really strong all through most of 2013.

at ~1450 this is actually one of the best late Januarys we've had in years

26JAN2018: 1388
20JAN2017: 1546 (worth noting it was up by over 1 to 1688 by 03MAR)
22JAN2016: 1391 (1471 by 08APR, 1688 by 29JUL)
30JAN2015: 1467 (1560 by 13MAR)
17JAN2014: 1645 (the hare price stayed around that level all through Q2 before plummeting in Q3, after which it didn't really recover until later 2015)
18JAN2013: 1376 (1684 by 26APR, 1749 by 24MAY)

I don't forsee a repeat of 2014 as that seems to be the exception rather than the rule of the share price being lower during the winter and recovering during the spring - early summer before dropping during the autumn and winter. Yes we've just had a not particularly strong 2018, but the same was true of 2012 and 2015 (ignoring the peak in spring of that year), and 2013 and 2016 were both very good for share price recovery,
21 Sep '18

Due to payday/share schemes possibly?
17 Aug '18

not even 10 o'clock and it's already hit a high of 16.16, currently sitting at 16.13.
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