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EXCLUSIVE: Aura Energy #Aura to IPO Swedish Vanadium prospect


Member Info for Alfacomp


Premium Member

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Member Since: Mon, 6th Oct 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 623
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 268

Last Posted: Today 14:48


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Today 14:48

Tyfoon I have had to disable registration login and forum features whilst I wait for new modules that better fulfil gdpr requirements
Today 11:32

Endion, I don't know how they have valued their deposit, but if it is simply multiplying the amount of Vanadium in the ground times 70,000 USD/Tonne then if you do the same calculation for BMN you get numbers that are significantly higher:

The simplest calculation

Vametco 138 MT ore at avg grade 0.62% = 862,000 Tonnes Vanadium
Mokopane 297.2 MT at 0.68% avg grade = 2,028,000 Tonnes Vanadium
Brits - say it is half of Vametco = 400,000 Tonnes Vanadium

This makes 3,290,000 Tonnes of contained Vanadium. At 70,000 USD/ Tonne V you get 230 Billion US Dollars - which is 13 times the value that Aura quoted for their resource.

However this does not take into the % ownership at Vametco (59%), Mokopane (64%) and Brits (I am guessing 70%).

If you put these factors in you get 2,087,000 Tonnes of contained Vanadium, which naively is 146.1 Billion USD at 70K USD/T
Today 10:12

By the way has anyone got a web reference to the 27th April SP Angel target update to 25p - for completeness I would like to add this to the analysts targets page on TBP
Today 10:09

knuttie - I strongly suspect that they cannot say anything more positive until BMN gives the say so.
Today 09:59

Fortunately the LSE team are not responsible for updating the Vanadium prices, which are now on the their next move up - some reports are that 18 USD/lb for V2O5 has already been breached.

If this is true then it is outstanding as this is what hallgarten predicted for the end of 2020 !

I have updated the graph here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/analyst-watch to show the V2O5 prices superimposed on the FeV ones - the FeV (in USD/Kg V) is on the left axis, the V2O5 (in USD/lb of V2O5) is on the right axis.

As you can see it seems that the normal assumption that the V2O5 price is 1/5th of the FeV ones seems to be breaking down a little now - perhaps V2O5 is now in shorter supply as demand for VRFBs (which will want to take V2O5 only) starts to take off.

I raise this point not to restart the perennial debate about when will SP Angel (or indeed ARC for that matter) raise their targets for BMN - I suspect that they are holding fire until H1 production news and/or other news comes out. Which could be very soon now.
Today 08:29

well at least they can afford someone to try and design the pages. Evidently ADVFN cannot even afford that.
Today 08:27

Stingstim,

the largest train on hill project stores 12.5 MWh - that is 1/64th of the size of the Dalian 800MWh VRFB - are you going to need 64 hills to get the same amount of energy storage ?

It's a no from me. Nice idea but the numbers don't stack up, oh and the response time gets longer the more energy you try and store, because guess what, the mass of the train has to increase. More gravitational energy but takes longer to turn it around. I suspect though that you will find that a more than insignificant part of the train is a batteries designed to try and cover over this basic physics principle.
Today 04:54

apparently hit 18 USD/Lb !

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3815801/Vanadium/BATTERY-RAW-MATERIALS-MARKET-REPORT-2206-Slow-trade-sees-lithium-hydroxide-prices-track-carbonate.html

This is quite a jump from last week so it would be worth checking that FeV has done the same.
Thu 20:07

When I say 862,000 tonnes at Vametco that is the amount of contained Vanadium.

The (JORC) ore resource is of course around 138.6 Million Tonnes at 0.62% average grade (up to 1.96% in magnetite grade in some seams).
Thu 20:03

kevkan - I thought that I had previously updated the warrants page to reflect the exercising of half of Wogens allocation. It seems that the update was not complete, I think perhaps because I had a power cut whilst I was in the middle of updating the page. I have finished the update - there's a little over 19 million warrants left outstanding.
Thu 19:52

I agree with Pdub - whilst we have iron ore, some 19 Billion Dollars of it, this is small change compared to the 140 Billion Dollars of Vanadium that exists just at Mokopane.

This of course is on top of the 862,000 tonnes of Vanadium ore resource at Vametco, plus perhaps half again at Brits.
Thu 16:34

SoTRR - I don't think they want to necessarily look at digging up the magnetite and transporting it separately when you have Vanadium to deal with which is perhaps 7 times more valuable to you, at least until Iron ore is 100 USD/Tonne

However - if you have a customer, say in China, who wishes to buy Iron ore and Vanadium concentrate, then why not also sell them Iron ore. I'm only mentioning it because in the 2017 Annual report FM explicitly stated on page 7:-

Furthermore, the Company will explore
opportunities for supplying unprocessed ore or
concentrate to vanadium-processing facilities
around the world that are starved of
vanadium feedstock.

Actually the iron ore/ phosphate and Vanadium projects are in different places - the iron ore and phosphate are in the PQ deposit area whilst the vanadium strikes rise to the surface further to the east - see here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/mokopane-vanadium-drilling-to-2016-pfs-225

Thus the Iron ore resource previous stated does not include a single kg of the waste magnetite that would potentially be dug up whilst Vanadium was being mined. It is an entirely independent thing.

Whether the iron in the magnetite can be usefully recovered from the Vanadium processing, separation and salt roast process is not immediately clear to me. Perhaps others may wish to dig into this possibility.
Thu 15:58

Tyfoon - a very good video - remind me what we were going to be doing with all the magnetite that was going to be dug up at Mokopane - oh yes, in the 2016 PFS it was simply ignored.

However the 2017 Annual report describes the iron and titanium potential for Mokopane quite clearly:-

Iron: 939 Mt at 31% Fe
Titanium Dioxide: 939 Mt at 14% TiO2

Is this a lot of Iron, or not a lot. Iron ore is quoted as around 65 USD/Tonne though it has been as high as 160 USD/Tonne in the last 5 years.

At a price of USD 65/Tonne, 939 Mt at 31% would in principle be worth 18.9 Billion USD

This compares with Mokopane's Vanadium (297 Mt at 0.68% = 2,028 kiloTonnes of contained Vanadium) - at 70,000 USD per Tonne of Vanadium this would in principle be worth 140 Billion USD.

So an extra 19 Billion dollars of value may seem like only a small increment to our Vanadium resource.

Where else are you going to find 19 Billion dollars described as a small increment ?
Thu 14:52

1210 - thanks for pointing these videos out - I have added the first one to the Library at TBP

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/presentation-bushveld-minerals-121-mining-investment-cape-town-2018-57
Thu 09:49

Comment posted on the article about their complete lack of understanding of economics of flow batteries.
Wed 15:25

brasi - exactly, so if you want to gamble you can simply try and predict when FM will throw out some amazing news.

Or you could simply sit tight knowing that you are sitting on a share that will be going up by a factor of 5 in the next year or so.
Wed 12:45

100% agree with Sanchez - thanks to you also FB for your unrelenting purchasing.

It is clear that the Market Makers only deign to put the SP when the have sufficient fear that they will not be able to meet the demand for shares from buyers. Fatbankers repeated clear signs of buying have clearly helped to stimulate others to follow, and thus the critical buying momentum has been reached and propelled the SP upward during the periods of rerating.

Does anyone else wish to follow his lead and nominate a buying block size that they will be using in future. It very much helps with the analysis, plus gives clear signals of who is buying.
Wed 12:26

Martyboy - whilst you are correct in asserting that Vametco would have generated the same amount of cash in that time the key point is that whilst there exists the multilayer structure, despite BMN controlling Vametco, it cannot simply go to the bank and draw out Vametco cash - this has to be redistributed via dividends at the end of the financial year. This is why they had to raise money separately via a placing to unlock a more direct route to Vametco revenues.

The hypothesis that recent falls in SP are due to a placee selling are not backed up by an evidence so it is just a hypothesis like any other - eg "PI's selling after reaching their target price in the last rerate" so we cannot say anything either way about the reasons for the drop from 24p, apart from to note that it is not unusual, in fact it is pretty much the standard behaviour on almost all markets to have a period of consolidation after a period of significant upwards momentum.

What happens next is then driven by fundamentals - should they be positive, as will undoubtedly shown to be the case then that will kick off another rerate and we will climb the next tread on the stairway to 1BN market cap.


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