Macroeconomic News


INDICATORS - HUNGARY - Updated on Jan 10

Thu, 10th Jan 2013 17:48


BUDAPEST, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Hungary's latest indicators.

(Last updated on Jan 10, with g
overnment bond auction

average yields.)

Base rate 5.75 pct (-25 bps on Dec 18)

2-week deposit rate 5.75 pct (-25 bps on Dec 18)

--------------------------------------------------------



GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CHANGE (PCT)

Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1-Q3 2012

Unadjusted (y/y) -1.5 -1.5 -1.3

Calendar-adjusted (y/y) -1.4 -1.5 -1.4

Seasonally and

calendar-adjusted (q/q) -0.2 -0.4 N/A

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INFLATION (pct change)

Nov '12 Oct '12 Nov '11

Headline CPI m/m -0.1 0.1 0.7

Headline CPI y/y 5.2 6.0 4.3

Core CPI y/y 5.1 5.1 3.1

KSH BREAKDOWN OF MONTHLY CHANGE

Food Alcohol Clothing Consumer Energy Other Service TOTAL

tobacco durables goods

2011

Nov 1.2 1.2 0.7 -0.1 0.5 1.5 -0.2 0.7

Dec 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2

2012

Jan 2.8 3.0 -2.7 -0.2 1.0 2.8 2.2 2.1

Feb 1.7 0.9 -0.6 0.1 2.7 0.2 0.3 0.8

March 0.8 3.0 0.9 -0.3 0.2 1.2 0.2 0.8

April 0.8 1.1 2.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.8

May 0.3 0.6 0.9 -0.3 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 -0.2

June 1.9 0.4 -3.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.7

July -0.2 0.5 -2.2 0.0 -0.3 -1.0 0.8 -0.1

Aug -0.9 0.5 -1.8 -0.2 -0.2 1.6 0.3 0.1

Sept 0.6 1.3 1.4 -0.2 -0.5 1.1 -0.1 0.4

Oct 0.6 0.5 3.0 0.1 1.0 -0.6 -0.4 0.1

Nov 0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.1 -1.6 -0.1 -0.1



KSH BREAKDOWN OF CPI YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE

Food Alcohol Clothing Consumer Energy Other Service TOTAL

tobacco durables goods

2011

Nov 5.1 1.6 3.4 -1.4 6.3 8.6 2.5 4.3

Dec 4.6 4.1 2.5 -1.2 5.9 6.8 2.7 4.1

2012

Jan 5.5 6.7 2.8 -1.5 6.4 8.5 4.6 5.5

Feb 6.0 7.6 4.8 -1.3 8.1 8.7 4.5 5.9

March 4.7 10.8 3.6 -1.4 6.8 8.6 4.1 5.5

April 4.2 12.6 2.0 -1.2 7.0 9.1 4.2 5.7

May 4.1 13.2 2.0 -1.3 6.9 7.7 3.8 5.3

June -0.1 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1

July 6.1 14.1 2.6 -0.9 6.3 7.1 4.1 5.8

Aug 6.3 14.1 3.5 -0.8 6.2 7.9 4.1 6.0

Sept 7.5 15.6 2.5 -1.0 5.6 8.6 4.5 6.6

Oct 7.6 15.4 1.7 -1.2 5.0 6.4 4.2 6.0

Nov 7.1 15.0 1.5 -1.3 4.6 3.2 4.3 5.2

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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DATA (pct change)

PPI Oct 2012 Sept 2012 Oct 2011 Jan-Oct 2012

y/y 0.2 2.5 7.0 5.6

m/m -0.4 0.8 1.9 N/A

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INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (pct change)

Nov 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2011

Month-on-month (adjusted) -0.1 -3.8 3.3

Year-on-year (adjusted) -6.9 -3.8 3.5

Year-on-year (unadjusted) -6.9 -1.7 3.5

NOTE: Month-on-month figures are seasonally and working

day-adjusted. Adjusted year-on-year data reflect the number of

working days.

-----------------------------------------------------------

UNEMPLOYMENT Aug-Oct 2012 July-Sept 2012 Aug-Oct 2011

Unemployed 10.5 10.4 10.8

(Pct of workforce)



Number of jobless 462,900 457,700 468,000



Employed 51.4 51.4 50.3

(Pct of workforce)

(million) 3.935 3.936 3.863



-----------------------------------------------------------

Oct Sept Jan-Oct 2012

GROSS WAGE GROWTH (Y/Y) 4.6 3.7 4.5

Private sector 8.3 6.6 7.3

Public sector -4.1 -3.2 -2.1

Ex-bonus private sector 8.7 6.8 8.2

-----------------------------------------------------------

RETAIL SALES (pct change)

Oct Sept Oct 2011 Jan-Oct 2012

Month-on-month -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 n/a

Year-on-year -3.7 -3.1 +0.7 -1.8

NOTE - Month-on-month retail data are seasonally and working

day-adjusted. Year-on-year data are working day-adjusted.

--------------------------------------------------------

BUDGET BALANCE (in billion Hungarian forints)

Jan-Dec 2011 Jan-Dec 2012



Central state budget -1,727.1 -620.1

Indep. govt funds 69.2 130.4

Social sec. funds -83.7 -117.8

BALANCE -1,741.6 -607.5

NOTE - The figures are preliminary, cash flow-based and do not

include local governments.

----------------------------------------------------------

CURRENT ACCOUNT AND FINANCING (in million euros)

Q3 Q2 Q3

2012 2012 2011



Trade of goods/services 2,281 2,165 1,661

-Goods 1,187 1,308 672

--Exports 19,163 19,343 18,600

--Imports 17,976 18,035 17,928

-Services 1,094 857 989

Income and current

transfers -1,502 -1,687 -1,333

----------------------------------------------------

CURRENT ACCOUNT 780 478 328

----------------------------------------------------

Capital account 556 482 747

Financial account -2,548 -1,446 910

-Direct investment 847 -530 -570

Abroad -294 -1,676 -247

In Hungary 1,142 1,146 -323

-Portfolio investments 1,962 -676 2,056

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KSH TRADE BALANCE (million euros)



Nov Jan-Nov Oct Nov 2011 Jan-Nov 2011

703.8 6,781.6 646.9 693.4 6,760.2

NOTE: Figures from the Central Statistics Office (KSH).

---------------------------------------------------------

CENTRAL BANK INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (bln euros, end-period)

Nov 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2011 Nov 2011

33.865 34.973 37.774 35.774

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LATEST TREASURY BILL AUCTION YIELDS (pct)

6-week 3-month 12-month

5.66 5.45 5.30

LATEST GOVERNMENT BOND AUCTION YIELDS (pct)

3-yr 2016/D 5-yr 2018/A 10-yr 2023/A 15-yr 2028/A

5.57 5.75 6.00 6.31

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HUNGARY'S SOVEREIGN RATINGS (Outlook in brackets)

Fitch Moody's S&P

(stable) (negative) (stable)

Short-term forint

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