moosh's diary chapter 3

EME

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=EME&ArticleCode=9ipd2tj7&ArticleHeadline=Sugarloaf_Production_Update

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=EME&ArticleCode=rswrcc4c&ArticleHeadline=Independent_Reserves_Report

https://www.share.com/cgi-bin/oicgi.exe/inet_raccount?function=dl2&pass=1&csi=113275&action=financials&sub_action=forecasts&name=Empyrean Energy

broker forecasts strangely disappeared after 6 months.

reserves report - P1 up ~50%. previous P1 on reserves came in at 8p/share. not many more shares issued since then, so i'm assuming 12p for fair value of assets on P1.

now for those pesky interims!! good things come in 3s!!! maybe EME are going to give us a lovely christmas prezzie mmmmmmmm.

few new blog entries too.....last one next week and that's it people!!

last week of L2 action too next week. then it's going to be fun to see how it all works using just L1 data and live charts. new year new stuff! who knows, maybe i'll make more gains without L2 lol!

having used L2 since 2009, it has had its advantages and disadvantages:

advantages - in a major whooshy rise where intraday elliott wave action applies, then L2 is really helpful (if you don't use pivot points to help you) cos' you can judge local tops, especially if sp has flown outside of intraday bollingers.

disadvantages - if you use L2 without cloud charts, then knowing about L2 bid/ask depth is pretty pointless cos' while the bid may firm up, if it does it under an hourly cloud, then sp still has to go above hourly cloud before it has the chance to make a major move, but if you don't know if the sp is in relation to a cloud, then wot's the point?!!?....which is where a lot of LSErs get stuck when PIs on highly ramped high volume high share circulation shares stream L2 in words constantly all day long - it's all pretty meaningless without looking at a cloud at the same time. but wotever.

another disad is that L2 don't half make me panic!! MMs will sometimes firm up on the ask and form a barrier of ask MMs, which can sometimes be a fake firming up, which fools PIs into selling, cos' after a while, the ask MMs move about a bit and the bid firms up and sp continues up!! which is frustrating and causes a lot to become panicky (including me!!), especially if the sp is hideously overbought already in a loss-making company. now i seem to have pivot point resistance levels as targets, all i need is L1 data or even just doing dummy sell prices around the time when my target might be reached. it's a lot less stressful!!

EME. youz rubbish lol. another 6 months to wait uffff.

http://www.empyreanenergy.com/news/2012/page.pdf

C21 nice RNS today woop!

final L2 day for me. then RIP L2. blub. actually, no blub, i'm saving me £350 a year, or in real terms, a year of homephone + broadband.

http://www.empyreanenergy.com/news/2012/0015%20EME%20Interim%20Report%2030%20Sep%2012%20Website%20Version.pdf

EME - page 2 of above - check out graph. now every month no. of BOE has gone up about 2000 each month. i recall revenues from production trickles in a couple of months after production, so i'm actually wondering that if Aug/Sept12 production revs weren't received before end of Sept12, then they'll likely be included in FY, so in FY, add on revs for Aug12 to Jan13?, assuming ramp up in production occurs month on month, then monthly production to increase by 2000/month?

...to finish (cos' the library logged me off!!)

adding up the boe from Aug12 to Jan13 assuming 2000boe increase in production/month, gives revenue for 120k boe to be accounted for in H2 alone.

hence why i don't really care wot the sp does for EME between now and May13 ;p

final blog post up. RIP blog. RIP L2.

while i'm in the mood, will reflect now on the whole year....this year was meant to be the year where i had a year to test things out but it was another year of tweaking and evolving. the biggest 'achievement' which has been a breakthrough this year (in my general understanding of things) is the whole PE ratio/eps thing, amongst other fundamental ratios/statistics, and how they fit together with techs. it's no wonder that in previous years, when i didn't even know wot any of this stuff meant, that the prices behaved (fell!) when they did, cos' the relevant fundamentals (related to profit/eps/etc) weren't there in the AIM companies which may have otherwise have kept the sp afloat (as it can do with FTSE companies). it was such a small thing to understand, but it has ultimately had big consequences with respect to the way i approach a new investment, but also it means i can work out which broker forecasts for target sp are reasonable or not. obviously i have yet to prove this for real in an AIM company but i'm excited to the potential of it all.

so 2013 will be the year where i not only continue my new 'mission' (see 2 weeks to xmas blog post...mission is possible)...but it should hopefully be the year where i can bring fundamentals and techs together, without the 'aid' of L2!!

wins in Nov/Dec have been:

ANP C21 CAZA HDD HMB LGO OXP QFI SUMM UEN

so that's it people! happy investing. and if you're in profit, and you take it, i wouldn't blame you, cos' i would too! woop!