crookie3634, i think it helps if the shorter period MAs are over the 200 MA too, not just the sp. and i think it also helps if the 200 MA is on an upward trend too? i've read somewhere...(i'm sure riddler will correct my wrongness!).
after looking at the charts it is simple to see why it has nt taken off, if you look at the 200 MA it has merely "touched" the line ( although it did briefly rise 10% above it on occasions). The 2 things which stand out are
1. bearishly, the 50 and 100 MA DID NOT follow suit, and DID NOT upwardly cross the 200. This meant that it had no real momentum or support.If you compare this to PSN, CHL, MARS, KAH and any other example, the 50 and 100 and perhaps even the 36 and 72 ( from 6 month chart), actually crossed through the 200. In my opinion, and after only really seeing these bullish moves first hand in the last 3 months, i would suggest buying on the first RETEST of the 200 SMA, or at least wait till the 50/100 MA are going sideways rather than downwards.
2. i would suggest that the current trend for xchnage is still DOWN becuase of the fact that the sp is BENEATH the 50/100 which themselves are beneath the 200.
3. according to moving average theory, the more times a share "touches" a support, the greater the buy/sell signal. The fact that xchange has touched the 200 3 times but failed to cross is bearish IMHO, whereas yu could argue the opposite for PSN.
I need to learn alot more about the Elliot wave theory, and they are good for 1 year + charts. What i notice is that since june 2006 CEY made 3 "higher peaks", punctuated by some correction, BUT these corrections never went lower than previous LOW= BULLSIH ( in hindsight). Therefore CEY completed a full elliot 5 wave move from 2006-2007 then peaked, and dropped.It now seems to have created another 5 waves up in 2009, but these could just be part of a HUGE WAVE 1 of a new upturn, OR it could be a nasty trick. The previuous highs of 70p would have to taken out, or CEY could simlply be creating a huge " double top" @ 70p, which can be seen as bearish.(look at the 3 year chart,50 moving base etc) ) But for now enjoy the ride cos other technicals look, as you say, positve. Also a lot of good things being said about CEY in 2008/09.
You will remember that Fibonacci retrace theory is good to apply when you think the sp has made either a "significant" short term bottom, OR a final low. With DAV we have, as identified by the 3 month chart, finally started to build some upward supprt, where we create " higher lows" in the sp, creating higher support levels. These lows can also be CROSS REFERENCED with bollinger thoery to CONFIRM our thoughts. And that is the key to technicals....i.e MULTIPLE CONFIRMATIONS from various angles. So i posted some fibonacci targets for DAV now that we felt it had created a " final low" @ 7-9p, and this supprt was tested twice since november if i remember. Any way, we looked back a and found 140p as a "significant previous high" in summer 2008. I posted fib targets, and 23.2% and 38.2% would take us THROUGH the 200 MA ( currently @ c.40p for DAV). so by cross referncing this data my personal targets for DAV are now
1. recent high of 21p ( should be take out if we reach our 23.2% fib target of 35p ( from memory, so check my posts)
also just noticed that DAV is ABOVE the upper bolinger line on ALL THREE charts ( 3, 6 12 month), also i forgot to mention about bollinger that a possible reversal of a downtrend is usually only indicated when the sp rises back UP THROUGH THE LOWER band. With DAV the downtrend from early 2008 was only really close to ending when the sp crossed the lower bollinger on the 12 month chart ( 50 day moving base don,t forget) on the 11th Nov 2008, after doing so it really just traded sideways for the next 4 months, BUT IMPORTANTLY the lower red line was RE-TESTED on the 31st dec, 23rd jan, 28th feb, 28th march, and DAV has survived to finally rise ABOVE the upper green bollinger.....i feel really bullish about DAV but have 21p and 40p in my mind as cautionary targets
REALLY GOOD ARTICLE ON TECHNICALS www.marketoracle.co.uk ( stocks and indices) After a long and brutal bear market, investors naturally wonder with each bear market rally whether we have reached a stock market bottom yet. Many analysts do not believe you can tell when the stock market has bottomed. Yet you still see many predictions that the market has bottomed out. Identifying whether we have reached a bottom in the stock market is important to investors who want to beat the market. It is also important to know whether we have reached a bottom in the stock market, so you can reduce your risk of entering to soon. This article provides two methods that you might find useful in identifying when the stock market has bottomed out.
The 150-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) seems to be useful at telling us when the bear market is over. When the 150-day EMA transitions from moving down, flattens, and then moves up, it is a sign the stock market has bottomed and a new bull market has begun. The chart below shows the transition from a bear to bull market that took place in late 2002 and early 2003. The 150-day EMA flattened once in November 2002 and then again in January 2003, as the result of bear market rallies. In each case the 150-day EMA only flattened, it did not turn up, meaning the stock market had not yet bottomed.
In April 2003, the 150-day EMA flattened once again and then turned up. This meant the stock market had finally bottomed and a new bull market had begun. In this case, the 150-day EMA signal came two months earlier than the signal given by the monthly view in the chart of the S&P 500 above.
This raises the question, has the current stock market bottomed yet? As of April 3, 2009, the 150-day Exponential Moving Average had not flattened let along turn up. This tells us the current rally is not a stock market bottom yet. Most likely, this bear market rally will end before the 150-day EMA turns up.
For investors this means they need to enjoy the current rally for as long as it lasts. However, they should also be ready to reduce their exposure to long positions once the rally ends, since the stock market has not yet bottomed.
Riddler cheers for the explanation. I hope we have seen the bottom and sig lows for Dav and that it is now trading on an upward trend. Lets hope it can get near to the 21p target in the next couple of weeks.Thanks again.
So Riddler with the first fib re-trace being around 35p then longer term if it breaks through the SMA at around 40p and finds support we could be looking at attacking the 50% retrace at around 75p?and that would be longer term targets but the 40p should be a more mid term target?But overall the fact that we are trading above the bollinger lines is very good and bullish for future prospects?
crookie.....spot on. But remember that this is just my analysis of the data, and i hope i am right!....but, assuming DAV stays above the 200 MA, we could see some hefty gains, and only a break below the 200 would make me sell this time. however the FTSE is at critical point, because this 23% bounce is just another in a series of 15% + bounces since 2008. Unless it can break c.4200 will we get anywhere remotely near the 200 MA for the FTSE ( @ c.4600). See www.iii.co.uk, choosing FTSE from the top right stock options. The FTSE discussion forum is excellent, and i am out of my depth in terms of contributins to it, although i DO understand thier analysis. look out for "trigger"
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