Iraq Politics

Since this is a general thread I thought this would be the appropriate place to talk about Iraq politics for anyone invested in Iraq.

I work for a company who specialise in Iraqi Politics theyre called www.insideiraqipolitics.com

They do bi-weekly newsletters on all things related with Iraq Politics. They also have a facebook page https://www.facebook.com/pages/Inside-Iraqi-Politics/336439773053764

It is worth checking out.

Now lets roll on the conversations...

Regards

Leathleyj

OK heres some mumblings...some of this comes from the InsideIraqiPolitics news letter. If it is in speech marks it is a quote the rest is me.

We have heard talk about Maliki being forced to leave his position of power by other parties but as the newsletter shows its not as simple as one would think. Check this snippet out.

"We judge that those unconditionally committed to removing Maliki (Barzani, Allawi, Nujayfi and Chalabi) have only about 50 of the 163 seats needed, with another 110-120 MPs from parties undecided (includes the non-Barzani Kurds, Sadrists plus some Sunni Arabs). In practice they need one of the parties currently declared for Maliki to flip. Part of their problem is that Maliki’s use of Kirkuk (and now Ninawa) as a wedge issue to split Allawi from his mostly Sunni Arab base has been successful. On May 20, 19 MPs originally part of Allawi’s coalition declared support for Maliki based on his stance resisting the Kurdish agenda."

The problem is the same problem that we have in this country. Power can be abused and unless a majority vote against it the person doing it can continue to do what ever they please. So despite the Kurds and a few others trying to stop Maliki you can see the numbers dont count enough.

The next issue the Kurds face in trying to get rid of Maliki is Kirkuk. There are certain MP's who just dont want the Kurds to do well. One party the National Alliance is causing a particular problem. The NA along with other MP's feel that Kirkuk is a political stumbling block and opinion is divided. Maliki when weakened targeted it and it caused some incisiveness with MP's. In doing so Maliki played a blinder and stopped the movement of trying to oust him as MP's either refused to take a side or sided with Maliki.

It's worth noting that Maliki had the head of the electoral committee arrested the other day. The idea behind this is he will get re-elected if he fixes the election. Sadr tried to get a power sharing after the failed movement but the problem with that is Maliki seems to think that it will be seen as a win for Sadr and therefore weaken him. He refuses to have any concessions because of this.

So what happens now? Well lets have a look at the 2009 election results.

"Provincial Council Seat Distribution by Shia Affiliation (Jan. 2009 results)
Affiliation Maliki ISCI/Badr Sadr Jaafari Allawi Fadhila Indep.
2009 Seats 126 55 41 25 21 6 35
2010 89 20 40 1 24 7 2

Provincial seat totals include all provinces aggregated, but Shia seats only. The second row shows what the equivalent results from 2010 parliamentiary results for context. The far right column includes small Shia parties or individuals running as independents.

We expect the 2009-2010 trend – Maliki and Sadr up, others down – to continue. They are presently the only leaders who can mobilize support in the streets. The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which unanimously reelected Ammar al-Hakim as leader on May 20, is still more cult than political party. Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Fadhila Party seem satisfied with their roles in the Maliki-dominated order. Allawi has suffered defections and does not have a visible effort to build on what remains."

So according to that Sadr seems to be the only one who is capable of stopping Maliki. Does it seem like a coincidence that all of the parties who are anti-Maliki seem to be flocking to him? Probably not. If Maliki is to be ousted Iraq needs a fair election along with the support for Sadr. Before any kind of no confidence can be issued the anti-Maliki parties need at least one more political group to swap sides. Question is what can Sadr offer that Maliki cant?

This to me suggests a political stalemate and I now personally feel independence is the only way for Kurdistan to go.

I hope you like this. As you can see I can get lots of info from the newsletter which gives me an understanding of Iraqi Politics. If you want access to this kind of info all you need do is sign up :)

Regards

Leathleyj