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Reflect & Prepare


Reflect & Prepare

Fri, 1st Dec 2017 - Author: Reflect & Prepare

This week has had its events, more brexit drama, Trumps tax proposal moves on, OPEC extensions and data. First of all this week we had a surprise UK press announcement stating that an exit bill had been agreed! Looking further into the article,  it had been stated that it was agreed for a week.

Seems strange to me to release it when GBP/USD was falling and looking like it may turn south? Another interesting part of the event was the reaction to the comments. First of all we had a Downing St advisor come out and say the reports were 'not recognised', but then the next day the FT ran a piece that seemed to confirm the news and cable rallied some more. The FTSE 100 took the GBP strength in a negative light once more, and we have seen a 1.83% pull back from this week highs and at its worst the UK leading index was down 2.36% on the week. 

The size of the bill has now come into question, UK politicians have all had their say but this from the public's point of view was much higher than they were sold at the referendum.  The change from €20bln to €55bln is serious and with the current government finances in the state they are it's not looking rosy. Moving on setting up a hard border between the Republic and northern Ireland is the next issue but the Irish Foreign Minister seems confident a deal can be done early this month before the Brexit talks continue. 

Moving on to OPEC, to me this meeting can be seen as successful. In previous attempts the market catches wind of the figures through infamous source reports and gets disappointed once the true details are released. For the first time in a while the price of sport WTI was supported after a 12 month extension with a quarterly review was announced. Another main point from the meeting was Iraq and Nigeria's agreement to participate, this also skewed sentiment, it has always been a note of contention that they were not included but now it's not an issue moving forward.

Over the pond, Trump looks to have taken some more steps to getting the tax bill passed. At the moment 50 members are in favor, but I hear the GOP are looking for 51 to avoid another Obamacare disaster. Macro equity markets are buoyant on this news, so much so, that even Kim Jong Un's latest antics were not able to dampen the mood. 

 

Moving on to corporates, 

 

Miners have been under pressure this week as commodities prices consolidate, also the data out of China was not spectacular but from a personal point of view at least both things held up rather than fall. 

Ocado share moved higher as much as 20% after the online grocery retailer said has signed an agreement with Groupe Casino to develop its Smart Platform in France.

London developer Shaftesbury was in the black as it posted a jump in full-year profit and beat consensus forecasts for its net asset value.

Cineworld stated they would make a $3.07bn (£2.3bn) offer for US peer Regal Entertainment, which it plans to fund through new debt and by raising funds via a rights issue.

Britvic shares shot higher higher as its full-year profit beat expectations and it lifted its full-year dividend per share by 8.2%.

Indivior shares posted a  8% rise as it received approval from the US drug regulator to market its once-monthly injectable treatment for moderate to severe opioid use disorder, which analysts believe could lift company sales well north of $1bn.

Today Royal Bank of Scotland stated it will close 259 branches and cut 680 jobs as customers shift to online banking. Barclays and Lloyds also traded lower.

 

What to look out for:

 

Data - UK Construction PMI, RBA, BoC and Indian Interest Rate Decision, UK,EU, US Services PMI, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, AUS, EU, Japanese GDP, Non Farms and ADP Non farms, UK industrial and manufacturing production and Saturday night Chinese CPI.

 

Company events and updates - 

 

Ig Seismic Services Plc [14VM] Mysale Group Plc [MYSL] Taptica International Ltd [TAP]UK Mortgages Ltd [UKML] Character Group (The) PLC [CCT] GW Pharmaceuticals PLC [GWP] MXC Capital Plc [MXCP] Palace Capital PLC [PCA] RhythmOne PLC [RTHM] Collagen Solutions Plc [COS] Consort Medical PLC [CSRT] Fulcrum Utility Services Ltd [FCRM] Iomart Group PLC [IOM] 

Tatton Asset Management PLC [TAM] Vianet PLC [VNET] WYG Plc [WYG] Allied Irish Banks Plc [ALBK] Ferguson Plc [FERG]International Consolidated Airlines Group [IAG] IG Group Holdings PLC [IGG] Victrex PLC [VCT] London Finance & Investment Group PLC [LFI] Easyhotel Plc [EZH]Image Scan Holdings PLC [IGE] Numis Corporation PLC [NUM] Oxford Metrics Plc [OMG] Redhall Group PLC [RHL] RWS Holdings PLC [RWS] Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust Plc [SERE] Mercia Technologies Plc [MERC]

Plastics Capital PLC [PLA] Stagecoach Group PLC [SGC] Sysgroup Plc [SYS]Tricorn Group PLC [TCN] Billing Services Group Ltd [BILL] Ceres Power Holdings PLC [CWR] Gattaca PLC [GATC] Orchard Funding Group Plc [ORCH] YouGov PLC [YOU] Carillion PLC [CLLN] Abcam PLC [ABC] Aeorema Communications [AEO] Fidelity Asian Values Plc [FAS] Frontier IP Group PLC [FIPP] Foresight Solar VCT Plc [FTSV] 

Gleeson (M J) Group PLC [GLE] Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals Plc [HEMO] Henderson International Income Trust PLC [HINT] Investment Company Plc (the) [INV] The Brighton Pier Group Plc [PIER] Sanditon Investment Trust [SIT] Clipper Logistics [CLG] Mulberry Group PLC [MUL]Smith (DS) PLC [SMDS] CareTech Holdings PLC [CTH] Axa Property [APT]Datang Intl Power Generation Co Ld [DAT] DX Group Plc [DX.] Quadrise Fuels International PLC [QFI]River And Mercantile Group [RIV]Softcat Plc [SCT] Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC [BKG]

 

Lots to look forward to next week then.

Have a great weekend. 

 

Kind Regards

Rajan Dhall

 

 

The Writer's views are their own, not a representation of London South East's. No advice is inferred or given. If you require financial advice, please seek an Independent Financial Adviser.



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