Register
Login:
Share:
Email Facebook Twitter


EXCLUSIVE: Aminex CEO says 'Institutions are delighted' with Zubair farm-out terms
EXCLUSIVE: InfraStrata continue to negotiate with major gas companies and institutional investors


Reflect & Prepare - RSS Feed

Reflect & Prepare


13
JUL

Reflect & Prepare

While the economy continues to strengthen, US assets remain in demand and there is little in the trade tensions which seems to be hurting Wall St stocks, Treasuries or the Dollar.  Earlier this week, we got the latest inflation figures which saw the CPI rising to 2.3% in the core rate, and this keeps the Fed very much on track to raising rates by 4 times this year - 2 already done. 

It wasn't long ago that this tightening spree was perceived to have had a negative impact on equities, but this week we have seen the NASDAQ pushing to record highs with more to come based on late Friday sentiment.  Risk sentiment is teflon coated it seems and to the extent that the familiar safe havens are being discarded - Gold has been a standout loser.  

Read More...



Blog Calendar

29
JUN

Reflect and Prepare

The US economy continues to show an accelerating pace of expansion based on more recent numbers, and this has prompted forecasts of Q2 growth in excess of 4.0% from host of pundits.  As such, the Q1 final reading of 2.0%, which was 2 tenths off the previous estimate was largely ignored.  In the previous session, the goods trade balance saw a reduction in the deficit to the tune of $4bln in May, and while durable goods orders were a mixed bag, there is little to suggest economic divergence between the US and its major counterparts will not continue to widen - for now at least.  There is however a much higher USD, and this in part looks to have been a resurgence in Treasury buying, with equity outflows heading for the US given growth prospects and attractive yields.  Looking on from here, stretched exchange rate levels are back in focus and are a key bugbear for central bankers - as we have seen with the EUR and the ECB, and earlier in the year, US Treasury Sec Mnuchin was accused of talking down the USD.  Looking at the greenback now, these accusations are long forgotten. Rhetoric may start to pick up again when looking at the CNY rate in light of the trade tensions which may start to ease.  China has unveiled an easing of investment curbs in areas such as banking and agriculture, while at the start of the week, president Trump said he would desist from using harsh measures on China.  We move into Q3 next week and with it US payrolls is on the agenda.  US ISM PMIs will also make for interesting reading. 



19
JUN

Debenhams - are things getting worse for the high st?

So its seems results from Debenhams are not getting better, as the high st. continues to crumble. This massive name looks to be one of the hardest hit as the share price is at practically to lowest point in its trading history. This morning the Co. reported group like-for-like sales over 15 weeks down 1.7% and group gross transaction value for 41 weeks down 1.6%. The only ray of sunshine is the online business which is 16% higher over the last 15 weeks. 



15
JUN

Reflect & Prepare

The burning question for USD based assets was whether the FOMC would firm up their dot plot for 2018, shifting the bias from a median 3 hikes to 4.  Hiking for the second time this year, the Fed raised the Fed funds target rate to 1.75-2.0% and projections duly shifted to hike a further 2 times later this year, confirming the Fed's acknowledgement of the strong US data which has been serially delivered in recent weeks and months.



8
JUN

Reflect & Prepare

There is no disputing the strong economy in the US, but what was effectively pushing up implied rates and yields, is now effectively being undone - to some degree - by the isolationist trade sanctions which are causing ructions with all the major trading partners and investors are clearly getting nervous. 



1
JUN

Reflect and Prepare

It has been a busy week in the US on the economic front, but also in politics as the 'reinstatement' of the metals tariffs on the EU, Canada and Mexico may well have started off a chain reaction which could reverberate throughout global trade.   



18
MAY

Reflect and Prepare

In the aftermath of the BoE meeting last week, the outlook on the UK has diminished hopes of a rate hike, just as it has on the Brexit negotiations which have duly hit a wall as many (of us) had anticipated. 



11
MAY

Reflect & Prepare

Where to start? This week's BoE meeting was set to be an uncomfortable affair for gov Carney, with media questioning at one point making references to head of the MPC as the 'unreliable boyfriend'! 









Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look. While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.