Can't see the Saudis cutting but I can see a lot of higher cost areas of the world winding down production because of lack of investment. Shale oil wells have a much shorter life span than conventional so in the next 12 months I expect us production to come right down. Oil will probably settle at the average break even price about then meaning about $80 in Brent crude terms. RPO meanwhile will be looking to get their gas fields on line about then since the gas price will be a lot healthier due to continued high European demand in the face of old coal and nuclear power station switch offs. The oil meanwhile won't be going anywhere and will be seen as tomorrows piggy bank while the gas pays for interest and addition capex. All this means the future profitability of RPO is far higher than the current barrels per day would suggest. I still think 50p is a possibility however given the current negativity in the market over Russian assets I can see why any bidder would at this moment in time be offering a lower price. Its in everyone's interest to get this resolved before we go to aim so I'm sure a price will be agreed before then.
RE: can't see alot of trading happe..
in the mean time if the saudis could cut production and raise oil prices and the ukraine thing gets sorted that would be a bonus lol atvb
can't see alot of trading happening
Until the funds get bought out. Really feels like we are in a holding pattern now. Some MM may try and play silly bu??ers to scare people, but I'm pretty sure everyone holding now has developed a steely resolve after riding this rollercoaster for the last 2 years. IMO all the large shareholders (funds included) should lock themselves in a room and stay there till they agree a price. I for one am willing to hold till this happens, but would prefer, like I'm sure all shareholders would, to get on with our lives. After all there are plenty of other shares we could be trading in rather than sitting on our hands.
blows across the bb !!! or is no news good news ?? gla have pitched into sxx this morning hoping to offset losses lol
21 Feb '15
I for one would love to know exactly what the ownership structure is these days. I say exactly because I recon we can't be far off 90% belonging to a handful of individuals, and we all know what that would trigger. The key is who holds the rest. IMO PIs only amount to about 3 or 4% while funds hold just over 10. In most cases these sort of figures would mean the end game was near, but with Slavic logic in play you just don't know.
20 Feb '15
RE: big ask 35.75p
Aw thats a pity cause this is like watching paint dry , that price would be a bit of a dream hard to chat about nothing. Would be nice if the Investors Chronicle looked at this again as a lesson after such a gushing recommendation at £1.35 only a couple of years ago!
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