MaxCyte Share Price (MXCT)

I think there is a growing sense of inevitability developing here. As you say, another two licencing agreements to add to the many others on the books.

I don't think the market has accepted yet (somehow) the scale of the opportunity, or indeed the likelihood (inevitability?) or it happening. The Crispr/Vertex FDA approvals fully validate the platform - the treatment is seen as potentially reaching peak sales of $3bn. Assuming, for arguments sake, it peaks at $1bn and Maxcyte has an approx 3% royalty on the sales, then that would result in $30m additional income annual from this one treatment. On top of that is the consumables (no idea what that would be worth per year, but presumably 7 figures), and additional sales/lease of the machines.

Crispr/Vertex have outlined that they intend to open 50 treatment centers, and you would have thought that each would have a one of the Maxcyte machines to produce the treatment. Previous investor presentations have outlined that they cost $250k p/a for lease for clinical use. Perhaps crispr/vertex will buy the machines for each site, but assuming they pay $250k p/a lease for each of the 50 sites, then that alone equates to a further $12.5m p/a in revenue.

This one treatment could therefore sustain circa $45m p/a in revenue for Maxcyte (based on conservative figures), which exceeds the entire current revenue. And this is just one programme. There are 25 partnerships signed since 2017, and 125+ clinical licences related to the partnerships, of which 2 are approved, 1 is in a pivotal trial, 10 are in phase 1/2, and numerous others are in phase 1. All of these will be leasing the machines, paying for the consumables, and potentially paying milestones should they progress.

Yet here we are, with circa $200m in cash, $400m mcap, and therefore $200m EV - which is frankly almost unbelievable. The upside is huge and, as I say, now almost inevitable.

Just signed second SPL within a week. It would appear that the financial constraints that have afflicted the market over the last 12-18 months may, at last, be loosening. This could be good news for MXCT at long last.

Totally agree with you there Trotsky the tide will turn. Might have to wait a couple of years and with regards to the not so stellar guidance given over the last few Q's here is hoping they have been a bit more realistic in what they expect to achieve in a given time frame. The market does not like it when the peeps running a company can't forecast properly or are constantly over estimating what they expect, Better to under estimate and over deliver! Anyhoo it is what it is whole sectors are being battered right now but the tide will turn for both bio-tech and green/energy stocks! I'll continue to hold as I feel that when the tide does turn we should see multiples from here but the board needs to keep it real, I wont be adding anytime soon as who knows where the bottom is here given the state of the sector at the moment.

The sector has been in a mess for the last 12 months+. All of MXCT's customers are currently in cash conservation mode; their cash reserves are dwindling and there is no real public or private appetite for new cash raises. The tide will turn; it's just a question of when.

Not held these for 6m or so, but still on watchlist.

Interesting to look at their revenue guidance since last year. The 2022 results had revenue at $44m and guidance for 2023 was to increase 21 - 26% or $53-55m.

By Q1 they were guiding 8-12% growth or ~ $49m

By Q2 2023 would be comparable to 2022. So $40-44m

Now guidance is for a 20% fall to $34-36m.

At every quarter they have clearly underestimated the downturn in business and investors can only hope that this latest guidance is more realistic.

It’s difficult to make a strong investment case at present until we see signs of a recovery in the sector.

However, on the positive side with a market cap of £200m and cash balance of £165m equivalent, downside from here must be limited .