RE: Waiting game26 Mar 2024 21:43
Well then, March hasn’t turned out to be quite as mad as the saying suggests.
The BRC and NIQ reports on 5 March appear to have been the catalysts needed to halt the reversal. That date marked the turn up from the low point of the downtrend and it’s been a nice rise since, backed up with further positive signs from aditional retail data. The results vacuum, that was getting just a little bit testy, also seems to have turned for the better and today’s update from Ocado hopefully easing some of the domestic turbulence.
The 200DMA has been treated as sacrosanct with the low point turning just above it. ‘Twas never breached and the SP is already clear of both the 20 and 50DMAs as well. There was a hint of a W bottom from mid February to early March and we are now well clear of the W midpoint so that’s a good signal. The Weinstein disciples amongst the throng may now be thinking that it’s looking like a return to a Stage 2 uptrend; for the non Weinstein disciples and those wondering wot I’m blabbering on aboot – Stage 2 is a good thing. Yay :o)
My earlier observations in this occasional series on market dynamics highlighted the potential for a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete around this time at around the 200 level, and then go sideways for a while. Well, we got the sideways a bit higher and a bit earlier than I anticipated – a gorgeous looking corkscrew that ended with today’s break out – and, crucially, today’s close was just above the shoulder point. That should be key to the H&S now being consigned to the digital archives, never to be mentioned again (be nice now).
The close today was bang on a key support/resistance line though (if you are really bored with the in-laws this holiday weekend you can have ‘fun’ tracing it all the way back to 2003) and curiously it’s at the exact same point where an extension of the base of that lovely 15 month uptrend might cross it. Key trend lines crossing over in a ‘confluence’ may possibly mean a bit of SP hesitation and stuttering around, unless it smashes through tomorrow without a hindward glance.
Unfortunately - *sigh* - all of that means that there are now two large unfilled gaps on my chart that are going to completely mess with my CDO for the rest of year. Perhaps lots of chocolate and a nice profit on my investments will get me through the pain, hmmm?
Right then Easter, what’s in-‘store’ (stop me) for us at the end of this wondrous financial year? I’m going to take a punt here and suggest that we may even see a post YE trading update in April. It doesn’t normally happen, and if it does I suspect it may be relatively brief, but it would be a nice bookmark to recent events and set up nicely for the results on 22 May?
Happy Easter and a Happy 2024 Financial Year End to one and all (Dickens can rest easy I think).