Good post Dibs, good overview. The rewards are there to see if p3 is a success. Today really confirms what we already know. Knowing the partner is the key here which we should know very soon. I suspect the finer details in relation to funding and future royalties are the sticking points. The way things are on the AIM atm makes this a good day in relation to the sp. Majority of other companies would see the sp in decline as uncertainty still remains on who that partner is and the funding so overall I am more than happy. I'm sure by the end of 2015 I will be even happier. Lots of scenarios to consider here but if you believe p3 will be a success then the current MC makes this a 'no brainer'
Market digesting. Modest reaction due to lack of concrete agreement and no detail. Don't know who partner is? Funding requirements, who pays what? Will Darwin be used (I hope not). Once we have confirmation and details it might be possible to put a valuation in place. I was considering topping up this morning but glad I held back for now. Given that something like 80% of phase III's succeed this is a darned good risk to reward ratio now. £5m of the current £37m mc is cash meaning Lupuzor and all the other assets valued at £32m. That will look like the bargain of the year if phase 3 gets through. This has got to be worth a punt now in every AIM investors portfolio surely?
I think Turnashilling will henceforth be known as Goneaquiet.
Timescale Confirmed - "Few wee..
Updated comment from DD just released via Proactive Investor article: “We should have something more in the next few weeks,” chief executive Dimitri Dimitriou told Proactive Investors. “When we have more details, we will discuss them. Until then we can’t speculate.” WH
Good to see the unheard of red dot flashing on the IMM screen.....feel like I should take a screen shot!
I am very happy that the company is finally entering into a phase III trial for Lupuzor. The drug, which we know is a potential blockbuster and very high margin, could be worth may multiples of the company's current market cap. Buried in today's release is some very important data: "Commercial Opportunity Current drugs either have serious side effects or have limited effectiveness GSK's Benlysta's approval paves the way for Lupuzor™ (first Lupus drug approved in over 50 years) There are an estimated 1.5 million patients in US, Europe and Japan The target price per patient is estimated to be around $10,000 -$20,000 per year". So sales could be huge. Boomorbust summed the opportunity up nicely: "Don't think many PI's appreciate just what an achievement taking a drug into phase III is. According to the FDA the probability of a new drug reaching phase III studies is only 8% so if you look at every bio on AIM and every product they have in development only 8% of them will get this far. More importantly though once there the FDA estimate that the probability of approval and reaching the market is 90%." The risk to reward ratio at the current low share price is very enticing. There should be plenty of newsflow now the starting gun has been fired to drive the sp significantly higher. The cancer drug also sounds promising which seems to be currently valued by the market at Zero.
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