Just thought it worth letting you know that your not on your own guys, we're ( I at least ) are enjoying this discussion. keep it going please.
How are you today? I hope all is going well, and as long as some of your trades are in the black, the red can wait. I am sorry to hear of Lonmin's fall from such dizzy heights of £40 to the present share price, despite the fact any consistent basis is a task we are all doomed to fail. - Today sees the release of data from the US. Frankly, I think this is an aside. What is more important is the political partisan slugging match that will stymie President Obama, and cloud the economic outlook. There are guys in Washington determined to make life hell for the president. They want to effectively end his presidency and leave him a lame duck coasting to retirement in Jan 2017. I really don't know what the truth is about 'recovery'. A lot of the jobs created are not the kind that can kick start demand in any meaningful way. I see political events dictating market sentiment more than any published numbers. - I see that your rationale for owning, and defending, the current status (using share price as a metric) of SSE. I am holding to my target price of 1163, and have set a limit order to buy £10K at that point. One has to believe in one's methodology, until it is proven ineffective, at which point if said outcome materializes, I will gladly give it up. - I notice there are a lot of media (establishment?) reports that faster growth is back in the UK. A lot of commentators are talking up this theme. But my day to day experience reveals no meaningful change. All that liquidity pumped into financial markets was soaked up by banks, and for the most part they loaned it on to speculators etc. Those flows have to reverse at some point. How it reverses, in a controlled way or otherwise, is a matter of conjecture. - We are all amazed by China's rise, and are now all more of less convinced in a linear path to preeminence from here on for that nation and economy. I am a very, very, very keen student of Greek mythology, and like like to keep a safe distance from the Gods on Olympus intoxicated with Ambrosia, and to my mind hubris is not liked up there on that mountaintop, and blinding people with certainties is a keen joke (ruse) that these Olympian chaps enjoy very much! While Socrates is a great hero of mine with the advent of the dialectic, I never take my eyes from the pre-Socratics who know the art of the irrational is forever full of surprises. Expect the unexpected. Whatever that means!
OK we will have a truce on QE, we have differing opinions which is a good thing, if we all held the same opinion it would be worse. I would not add to IAG because the increase means I am now overweight, to rebalance I should sell some but I am holding. I have been in Lonrho/Lonmin since 1983 and visited the Marikina mine in 1989. Its difficult to analyse Lonmin because they had capitalisation and rights issues every year which give the incorrect impression that the price has not moved much, an adjusted chart is needed to give the correct story and I have not been able to find one . I made the mistake of not selling when the price was £40, I will not make the same mistake twice, Lonrho in my opinion is likely to become a takeover target again in 2014 if the share price remains below £5, this time a more modest £10 might be offered. I topped up SSE at £13.88 in January, with the benefit of dividends received I will be making a loss on these shares below £13 , I think the price could turn upwards following green subsidy tinkering within the next week or two but the danger is the level of tinkering is not enough to shut up Millybands ranting , they will be making jokes about Camerons stupidity, he should have the sense to judge public mood and made it a higher number, £50 may not help at all and all he is offering is to roll the cost forward to after the election. As for the management of SSE words fail me, they just could not wait and had to be the first to announce a big increase and in doing so look at the mess they have made for themselves. I dont understand how people with so little understanding of politics and empathy with customers manage to get top jobs running major companies, I am positive about SSE despite the management, they are almost enough to make me want to take action, after all look what Mark Taber achieved with his action on the Coop group, he well and truly kicked their arses , what an absolute embarrasment to Mr Millyband looking to take advice from the reverend Flowers.
26 Nov '13
Hi there, I hope things are going well with you. - I must take issue with your assertion that QE is always been with us. Inflation has burned into fiat money yes, but QE on this scale and to rescue banks, not the economy, is unprecedented and frankly reckless. The muted discussion on how we should 'exit commutative monetary policy'' is not just hyperbole and jargon. They really don't know. No one can guage the consequences. And this globalized world is vastly different from any in the past. Finance moves in microseconds,. No time to make considered judgments. Computers do all the talking. Let's leave this here for now. - SSE. I have a method that is partly algebraic, and partly subjective interpolation in making some forecasts. The time frame is not set in stone, but the 6 to 8 week time frame is what I usually aim for. I will stick with my 1163 and see what eventuates. Your call on IAG has been spot on, but we both agree it is institutions spending other people's money that is pushing this up. By your own admission you are not adding to your stake, despite you are convinced it will go on rising. Nothing wrong in that, for we are middling players among sharks and crooks wagering with other peoples money. If I was in their shoes, I would be buying this too. After all, it's not my money that gets burned. - As for the Gulf carriers, I think if you read the complaints made by Luthansa, Air France etc to Boeing and Airbus over their design of planes, which they are designing around Middle Eastern carrier need, show that these platforms are optimized for Gulf carriers like Emirates, Etihad, etc. There are too many too many planes coming on stream, and this is very reminiscent of the shipping glut. IAG must join with it's European peers and take on a scale to match the Gulf carriers. Otherwise, you will get pushed around and squeezed like the proverbial lemon. - Lomnin, I would be very short term and wary with that one. You are taking a stake on politics, and South African politics are volatile at the best of times. I am keeping an eye on a few other stocks. I will update you when I feel more certain about them.
25 Nov '13
I am not claiming the present bull market can go on indefinitely, it definitely cannot . QE is not 'experimental its been going on since the start of the fiat money system, its just the renaming of an old trick. I enjoy reading predictions but you need to attach a date to them. I think SSE will turn upwards again in December and hit £14 possibly £14.50, sentiment is pushing it down at the moment but this will change. To predict SSE willl drop to £11.63 either you have taken up TA or you know something no one else knows, the interim dividend level is already set for January so that cannot now be reduced so what else could happen , tighter regulation I doubt could have much downward effect on the price. SRP I am clueless. IAG is a great share for long term holders and also for traders, the technicals are great . Trading this over the past 8 weeks could have netted you a 50% capital gain just by using the basic charts no special skills needed, CFD traders must love this one, forget crappy AIM shares with their massive spreads. At todays price its been moving up due to a further oil price drop and the upward FT100 index blip so I would expect to have yet another trading opportunity when it drops back again then rises to £4 for the Christmas rally but let it run for a week or so. Emirates is not a great threat to IAG having their hub in Dubai is like a ball and chain, I remember the bad old days having to touch down on route to the far east compared to being able to take a non stop flight now, the lure of a cheaper bottle of whisky and cigs is not enough to make me want to leave my seat for an hour while they fill the tanks with free fuel. There is plenty of room for IAG, every dog has its day and IAG are having their day(s) and will continue to do so, can you put a date on when you expect they will have their lemons squeezed so I can prepare myself ? Another great trading share is Lonmin, its been up and down like a yo yo and no sign of the oscillations damping down, I would bet on this one going back over £3.50 at least once before the year end .
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