Back to the technicals. The upmove developed last week and there is now enough evidence that the symmetrical down channel in place since mid May has been broken to the upside. Furthermore, there has been an overlap of the first five wave decline from the May highs ruling out the current upmove as a wave 4 corrective rally, as wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 in a trending sequence. Therefore it is highly probable that the decline from the highs in May completed an intermediate wave 4 in the form of an ABC, 5,3,5 correction of the previous implusive wave to the upside. If that is the case then this new uptrend can be labelled as such, and could take the form of two bullish counts. The first and most likely is that this is intermediate wave 5 of this uptrend from the lows in 2012 at around the 20p level. Intermediate 5 should take the form of three implusive minor waves to the upside 1,3,5 with two corrective waves 2,4 in between, which should alternate in terms of time and price. If this is the case then this 5 impulsive wave has a high probability of exceeding the intermediate wave 3 highs posted in May at around the 93p level. Currently the rally is somewhere in minor 1 of intermediate 5 and is right on horizontal resistance at the 61.5p level. Once this wave is complete, and there is no evidence of that yet, a wave 2 decline should retrace a proportion of this advance before the 3 wave begins. Please remember that the third wave in any sequence tends to be the strongest and most powerful. The second and most bullish count is that this is a rally of cycle degree, not intermediate, with each rally and then decline since the 2012 lows forming a 1/2 1/2 sequence, with a cycle degree wave 3 now in its infancy. This would be very bullish and the rally from such a move would likely exceed the previous high in May by some margin. But again the key here is not to look to far ahead and observe the price action as it unfolds and label accordingly. Best regards
21 Aug '14
Tecnical analysis, seems to be bang on, up again!
19 Aug '14
What's a TA?
19 Aug '14
Nice TA, well done. Are there any other shares that you intend doing a TA on?
18 Aug '14
Nice tick up today! Yes noted on your graphs and spot on about the US, as the weather normalises and the economy picks up hopefully this is positive for FC. Lets see what the rest of the week brings and I can only see this continuing to climb until the next set of results.
17 Aug '14
Back to the technicals. After what looks like a selling climax on high volume last Tuesday the price has picked up and the wave count is unfolding in an interesting way. Firstly it appears, that in the short term time frame the triangular pattern in 4 of 5, failed in what looks like a fifth wave failure to the downside, with the characteristic of a strong move in the opposite direction. From that point in the short term time frame, a 5 wave advance has unfolded to the upside, with only a small pullback in what looks like a minor wave 2. The next positive is that the rally of the past three days has moved back through the wave 4 of previous degree and overlapped wave one of previous degree, thus increasing the probability that the decline from the May highs is over. This probability would be further increased if the price action could move above the down channel which has been place and falling since around 15 May and has turned back each wave to the upside since this date. One of the key tenants of the wave theory is that price action moves in symmetrical channels and that the current down channel has a level in multiple time frames of around 54p on Monday. A move through this level would be very positive and would begin the process of initiating a new up channel. So from here the key is observation and awaiting to see whether this upmove can develop further, and thus allow it to be labelled as such. Best regards
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