I agree and interesting analysis. CWC just put out an RNS giving the value of the three options to CWC shareholders. As this piece points out the CWC board recommendation (option 1) gives the highest immediate return to the CWC holder with a value per share if transacted today (23rd Nov) of 81.03p per share. I suppose this figure is bound to fluctuate with the LG share price and the exchange rate. For the moment I am holding. I got in in the low 60s so inclined to hold and take the full value of the TO at the time rather than bale out earlier.
As predicted a lot of UK based holders who have been in a long time are selling out as they do not want to hold US paper and have better things to do with their not inconsiderable profits. This may drift lower between now and the Q2 2016 completion date, but one thing is certain on that day CWC will be worth 86.82p a share, so don't worry if you need that extra little bit of profit, it will come. Myself I am not averse to holdings on the DOW as they are allowed within my ISA. I still have the Verizon shares given to me as part of the Vodafone deal and they pay a divi and have held up well. Malone is highly committed to capital growth for shareholders (rather than paying dividends) so you never know, holding LG paper could be a good ride for a while.
I have no idea where people are getting the idea that this is an all cash offer or that it represents a price of 86.82p PLUS a cash divi of 3p per share. The RNS clearly states:
The CWC Directors intend unanimously to recommend that CWC Shareholders elect to receive the Recommended Offer. The CWC Directors do not intend to recommend either the First Dual Share Alternative or the Second Dual Share Alternative.
Under the Recommended Offer, CWC Shareholders shall be entitled to receive, for each CWC Share: a number of New Liberty Global Class A Ordinary Shares as determined by the Exchange Ratio, such number not to be lower than 0.007921 and not to exceed 0.008301; and a number of New Liberty Global Class C Ordinary Shares as determined by the Exchange Ratio, such number not to be lower than 0.019391 and not to exceed 0.020321. CWC Shareholders who validly elect to receive the Recommended Offer and who are on the register of members of CWC at 6 p.m. (London time) on the Business Day immediately prior to the Effective Date will also be entitled to receive the Special Dividend.
On the basis described above, the consideration under the Recommended Offer represents: an indicative value of 86.82 pence2 per CWC Share, INCLUDING the Special Dividend.
So it is paper plus cash in the form of the dividend. The "C" shares may also be convertible to cash (a la Rolls Royce) but it is clearly NOT an all cash offer nor is it worth more than 86.82p per share.
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