By the sounds of it, Chariot has its eye on another venture. I hope it takes a look at Fastnet's Tendrara gas project. It's 50-50 in terms of commercial viability according to the company, Fastnet is on its knees after the comments made by its now former chairman and it could provide a lot of cash for Chariot to fund other ventures.
Poll.. I think the key to Namibia is that there is no more acreage available, so if i big company wants it as part of there portfolio they have to farm in somewhere.. Larry mentioned Shell yesterday so i dont know if that was a hint or not but i think its key that they are there..
I think Woodside will become operator in the Rabat licence and Chariot will get a free carry but personally see this more as a 2016 event than 2015 (likewise for Loukos and Mohammedia farm outs). Regarding Mauritania check out the licence terms. Current licence is due to expire April 2015. What worries me here is how are Chariot going to secure a tier 2 farm out partner between now and then when the CPR is only being released in Q1 2015? Really hope we're not going to have to renegotiate the licence and lose equity like the Namibian central licence In Brazil I'm hopeful for another seismic farm out so hopefully Chariot will get the $7.5m back on the 3D seismic they plan to spend in 2015. Regarding the Namibia centrals, FQ320MR mcfcnige,Wheep0, Ashlar and anyone else who took part in the investor call (thanks to all for posting their thoughts) will have a far better idea than me. It seems as though there are interested parties but can you really see an announcement in 2015? I know the above might sound pessimistic but I never saw a single digit share price here so just trying to be realistic.
Are you presuming no farm-outs at all in 2015 ?
The problem with that strategy is the share price continues to make new lows every month. Just when you think it can't go any lower it does. I keep questioning what will the cash in the bank be when Chariot finally drill the next well. With the woodside farm out money there should be roughly $55.5million cash but $7.5m earmarked for the new venture and $7.5m for the Brazil 3D leaving $40.5m. I would guess $15 to $20m G & A, G & G costs for 2015 leaving somewhere between $20.5m and $25.5m year end cash 2015. Obviously this doesn't take into account any further spending on 3D in namibia southern blocks or any other new venture opportunities. Likewise it doesn't take into consideration any back costs received for farming out any of the portfolio. Hence I'm working on cash in bank at end of 2015 of £13m to £16m equating to roughly 5 to 6 pence a share. Personally I don't think shareholders are going to be exposed to a drill in 2015 but I'm hoping for a Morocco drill in 2016. With the current market not putting any value to Chariots' portfolio without a confirmed drill I'm just questioning if the share price will continue to track cash?? Obviously these are only my thoughts and the projected numbers could totally wrong but I don't think we can automatically assume 2015 share price will be better than now.
RE: Mixed feelings
Good post Wheep0.. Things will change at some point although i feel we will linger down here for a while yet.. The sector will depend on how the oil price performs and i dont think we have seen bottom there yet, they will probabily be some low headline number before its starts to turn.. Have a nice Christmas and all the best for the New Year..
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