CEYs Denver Investor Presentation (Sept 2015) estimates Q3 2015 gold production of 103k. Today they announce 105.4k, therefore we are currently on Target for 440k +. See Slide 26, but read the whole presentation for comfort. GLA http://www.centamin.com/centamin/uploads/reports/presentation/Centamin_Investor_Presentation_DenverSept15.pdf
I followed this share for almost 3 years waiting for the never ending court case to get resolved. Finally gave up the hope as cannot see this getting resolved anytime soon. gla
Most on theis board believe there will be a positive outcome to the CC and considering whats happened to Alfaraky whats his chops it could be very soon indeed. Add this to a circa 550K oz next year and a great Divi we have got to be looking at great times ahead. The SP is looking very strong at the moment and I feel we only need a little bit of luck to get a handsome pay day. I'm waiting for the big one so happy to wait a little bit more. Cheers
Re GMP Europe
Yep - good report that tibbs.- top-o-the-class. - There's usually a lagging response to good reports - let's see what happens by close tomorrow. - cheers
Centamin (CEY LN / CEE CN); BUY, 77p Steady quarter, 25-35% production growth ahead For full note, click here to download the PDF. GMP Europe 5 Stratton St, London, W1J 8 In line production, guidance maintained Today’s production is entirely in line with expectations at 105koz vs. our 104koz forecast. This is the last of the low-grade ore from mining nearer surface oxides, so grade should lift back toward the 1.05g/t pit reserve level, and production should similarly lift from now through 2016. Overall, we estimate a slight dip in pit grades (assuming flat underground grades), but underground productivity surprised materially on the upside, some 25% above plateau guidance of ~1Mtpa at 1.25Mtpa. Potential for 25-35% lift in production, ~10% FCF yields Looking ahead, a pro-rata of current production metrics but lifting pit ore to 1.05g/t reserve grade equates to production of 533koz annualised, 26% above current levels. On this basis alone, we remain positive on Centamin given FCF yields and dividends should climb similarly, matched by falling costs. Above this, the company again noted that the 10.7Mtpa run-rate should continue to improve with optimisation – another pro-rata of today’s production even to 11.5Mtpa, for example, would take run-rates to 573koz if underground productivity matched the increase, an exciting 36% lift. Lower risk growth than peers To achieve the potential production gains noted above, Centamin just has to mine the open pit at reserve grade as low-grade sections of the pit are now processed. At current gold prices and with mature operations, most peers have limited growth profiles if at all. Those that do have potential growth ahead are typically dependent on complicated changes, such as improved underground mining methods, to achieve their production goals. These complications come with risks, as highlighted by Acacia’s hiccups reported earlier this week, giving Centamin lower-risk growth. Maintain BUY rating and 77p PT, best-in-class FCF yields Updating for the quarter, we estimate Centamin trades at 1.18xNAV, in line with peers averaging of 1.15xNAV. However, FCF yields of peers average a paltry ~1.5% for this year and next, vs. Centamin’s ~9.5%. Even post government profit share staring in 2017, this is industry leading, and we think will support increasing dividends. As such, we maintain our BUY rating and 77p PT at US$1,150/oz gold based on deserved 1.4xNAV multiple.
RE: back in when CC Resolved !!
I think they've (cey) got as much idea as you. CC All down to the scc at the moment. Could be resolved in a few of weeks or sometime post 2025. I've given up trying to guess. There's no detectable urgency in Egypt that I can detect, the government get their part of the deal anyway.
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