I think the chance of a rate rise in Sept is in reality very close to zero. It is too close to polling day. The Fed is not full of Trump supporters and Yellen is strongly pro Clinton. The direction of the stock exchange in the 2 months up to polling day is a major indicator of the result. If it is up 90% of the time the incumbency party candidate wins, if its down 90% of the time the opposition candidate wins.
Aug 30, 2016 - 9:54 AM GMT by Ewa Manthey Gold was in positive territory on Tuesday morning in London, rebounding from a five-week low it hit in the previous session – the metal is likely to be rangebound until US jobs data this Friday, market participants said.
– The spot gold price was last at $1,320.65/1,320.95 per ounce, up $3.85 on the previous close. Trade has ranged narrowly from $1,319.40 to $1,325.33 so far. The yellow metal fell to a five-week low of $1,315.30 on… Read More
Later today, European data will include German import prices and prelim CPI, Spanish Flash CPI, and Italian retail sales. In the US, we will get the S&P/CS Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) while the Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for August. Any positive surprise in US macro data is likely to affect the dollar and the probability of a September rate increase, which in turn would weigh on base and precious metals.
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