Brooks Macdonald Group Plc Share Price (BRK.GB.PL)

FUM closed FY23 (30 Jun 23) on £16.9bn, 7.5% up y-o-y (30 Jun 22: £15.7bn) and 0.3% up over Q4 (31 Mar 23: £16.8bn). Q4’s net FUM flow of +£97m continues BM’s impressive run of positive net flows (now spanning nine consecutive quarters) during a period of difficult market conditions and investor nervousness. FY23 net flows totalled +£817m (FY22: +£785m). BM has flagged a healthy pipeline for FY24, although investor sentiment is still subdued.

Andrea Montague has been appointed CFO and Executive Director, effective 1 Aug 23, to replace Ben Thorpe, subject to regulatory approval. Andrea has an impressive executive and board track record in the long-term savings and asset management sector. She leaves Aviva where she was Group Chief Risk Officer, and prior to that, Group Chief Financial Controller.

BM has indicated it expects FY23 results to be in line with forecasts, although we see a slight change in how revenue is made up (FUM ending the year a little below our previous estimate and average revenue yield expected to be a little higher with the continued rise in interest rates). The slightly lower closing FY23 FUM level reduces our FY24 forecasts: revenue from £131.5m to £128.2m and underlying PBT from £34.1m to £31.2m. Our fundamental valuation reduces to 3,100p per share but is still 38% above the current share price.

An additional noteworthy point for investors is the marked uptick in the volume of shares being traded since late 2022, which suggests growing investor interest in BM (see page 2 of the note).

Link to note: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/fy23-results-justify-recent-rise-in-share-price

BM has recorded yet another quarter of positive net flows: +£373m in Q3 of FY23 (to 31 Mar 23), its eighth in succession. This is a hugely impressive achievement considering the last five of these quarters was a period characterised by market falls, economic uncertainty, and investor nervousness – an environment more typically associated with depressed flows. BM’s net flows have now been above peer group median levels since calendar Q4 of 2021.

Our fundamental valuation remains at 3150p per share, 77% above the current share price. We also flag that BM’s P/E ratio of 11.9x is 30% below a peer group median of 17.0, despite its organic growth rate being higher than most peers. We see potential for a re-rating.

See link with audio summary here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/impressive-consistency-in-strength-of-net-flows

Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/bm-half-year-results-investor-presentation-march-2023

Brooks Macdonald Group plc, the AIM-listed investment management group, conducted an online presentation outlining their strategy to reach their ambition of being a top 5 Wealth Manager, following the release of their Half Year results for the period to 31st December 2022.

Andrew Shepherd (CEO) and Robin Eggar (Managing Director, Head of UK Investment Management) ran investors through the details of their H1 financial highlights, which included a 7th consecutive quarter of positive net flows, an increased dividend and two completed acquisitions. The team also updated viewers on the ongoing growth in the MPS division and their M&A objectives.

The full video is available below, divided into chapters:
0:00:03 Introduction & summary H1 highlights
0:03:51 H1 financial results review
0:15:14 H2 outlook & guidance
0:16:04 Strategy Update
0:20:54 Growth Strategy (three value drivers)
0:36:33 Questions & Answers

Research report & audio summary here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/forecasts-up-on-positive-outlook-dividend-8

Brooks Macdonald (BM) recorded a solid H1-23 (to 31 Dec 22) with FUM up 4% to £16.2bn, from £15.7bn on 30 Jun 22. Net inflows totalled +£347m and investment performance +£212m (+1.4% compared to -0.3% of the benchmark MSCI PIMFA Private Investor Balanced Index).

A 7th consecutive quarter of positive net flows was recorded, with impressive resilience through the 2022 bear market, pointing to very strong fundamentals when it comes to attracting and retaining client assets. In calendar-2022, BM’s net inflow rate was one of the highest among a London-listed peer group of wealth managers and platforms.

We have upgraded our FY23 and FY24 FUM forecasts on a more positive net flow outlook than we originally assumed, and on a mark to market adjustment of FUM levels. We now forecast £17.4bn FUM at end-FY23 (previously £17.0bn). Our revenue forecast increases from £119.5m to £122.8m on the FUM upgrade, current yields being slightly higher than our original assumptions, and on contributions from acquisitions. Our underlying PBT forecast increases from £31.7m to £34.1m.

Our fundamental valuation increases to 3,150p per share, 57% above the current share price. We also flag that BM’s PER of 13.5 is 36% below a peer group median of 21.2, which doesn’t look justified.

Link to new research note: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/another-solid-quarter-guidance-confirmed

Brooks Macdonald (BM) continued to build momentum in Q2 of FY23 (to 31 Dec 22), with FUM increasing by 4.5% (+£0.7bn) over the quarter to £16.2bn (end of Q1: £15.5bn). BM chalked up its 7th consecutive quarter of positive net flows of £156m, an annualised rate of 4% of opening FUM. Investment performance contributed £546m to the FUM increase (3.5% of opening FUM, in line with the benchmark MSCI PIMFA Private Investor Balanced Index - capital only).

Management have confirmed that underlying profit and margin are running in line with expectations, and our forecasts remain unchanged, although our fundamental valuation ticks up to 3000p per share, which is 44% above the current share price, with the increase due to a reduction in the UK 10-year gilt yield (the risk-free rate used in our DCF valuation). We also highlight that BM’s PER of 14.0 is significantly below a peer group median of 17.3 which doesn’t look justified. We will revisit our forecasts & valuation when H1 results are released on 2 March 2023.