It seems i woke the board up with my post this morning, good to read the positive postings, i was getting a bit worried as i was sure testing results were due in august, I still think they are determined to go to production, so dont think we will be sold, unless of course its a ridiculous offer, good to see a rise in share price too, albeit a small one, does anyone have a guess of a realistic price once were de risked ? 18.75 billion dollars of ore, ! plus by products ! I have read 50 to 221 but that seems a wide margin !
Long-termer here jib since 09, and the two spikes since then at 55/35 were based on a lot of promise and speculation with nothing like the resources and de-risking we have had over more recent times, which is down to market impatience and an awful lot of capital being drawn out of AIM companies over the same period. I missed them both which is my fault alone, and also tried to catch the falling knife on sheer belief in BAO. As we close in on a crucial DFS in Q4, I share your same confidence - as we anticipate a detailed programme on reduced Capex, Modus Operandi on pig iron production and further detailed definitions on the quality of ore in the Tete mountain. Very relevant piece by Questor in today's DT on the state of play in the mega-mining iron ore companies where level of dividend is holding up the SP of Rio etc. importance of Chinese consumption levels etc. We can forget Rio as they took a severe hiding in Moz over faulty acquisitions of coal resources, leading to top level resignations. However, an important key to their profitability is the production of x million tonnes of ore in Western Australia at approx $50 per tonne giving them great margins on global markets at around current $111 per tonne. If we value the BAO jorced resource of approx 750 m.t. in Tete at half this price, we are looking at round valuation of $18.75 billion of ore in the ground. Lots of hoops to jump through - as you have pointed out - but the bottom line is that the family silver goes down the market tomorrow, and proceeds will be invested Monday a.m. at around 8.25p to take me a bit closer to the magical mill at a slightly reduced average!! GLA Bao investors!
It has been a boring few months but the current price has to be a great opportunity. I was just re-listening to the latest media podcast above and Ben confirmed that all is on track but the tests were taking longer than expected. I don't think we will have too much longer to wait and the benefit is that we can look forward to more news compressed within a smaller time frame between now and the all important DFS (in December). I am also pleased that the BoD are looking closely at a modular scaling up of production scenario, as well as the 1 m/t pa straight off option. The lower the initial CAPEX the better. I am hopeful that we will be looking at 20p+ in December so IMO now is a great time to be buying - assuming that all continues to go to plan of course! This is all about de-risking the project and once the DFS is out and assuming that there are no 'show stoppers' among the various required studies for the DFS then I would hope that the news on J/V partners or sale of the company will follow along fairly soon after the DFS. Reading between the lines these talks should already be at quite an advanced stage but only after the project is de-risked by the DFS will any deal be announced, because prospective partners remain risk averse in the current climate. ATB
We have had a long flat period with next to no news due, so this has held on well for me in spite of being way below the average and what it should be. Patience rewarded, and a little stirring today can only be good. Would top up again like you if the readies were there.
Just . . .
Agreed Jibbo - news must be near. Just followed suit and bought 20,000. This will be my last - no spare money left now !!
BAO's JV partner NRRP has stirred recently. Definitely signs of life from the deserts of Namibia. Maybe the minnow worm is turning - here too? JP
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