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Avanti Comm. Share Price (AVN)



Share Price Information for Avanti Comm. (AVN)


Share Price: 205.50Bid: 205.50Ask: 206.75Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Avanti Comm.
Spread: 1.25Spread as %: 0.61%Open: 205.25High: 209.00Low: 205.00Yesterday’s Close: 205.50
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Avanti Communications Group Plc Ord 1P

Avanti Comm. is listed in the FTSE AIM 100, FTSE AIM UK 50, FTSE AIM All-Share
Avanti Comm. is part of the Mobile Telecommunications sector






Share Price SpacerPrice
205.50

Share Price SpacerBid
205.50

Share Price SpacerAsk
206.75

Share Price SpacerChange
0%0.00

Share Price SpacerVolume
55,283

Share Price SpacerOpen
205.25

Share Price SpacerHigh
209.00

Share Price SpacerLow
205.00

Share Price SpacerClose
205.50

Share Price SpacerCurrency
GBX


Currency Issue Country Shares in Issue Market Capitalisation Market Size
GBX GB 141.80m £291.41m 5,000

52 Week High 324.75 52 Week High Date 28-NOV-2014
52 Week Low 162.75 52 Week Low Date 6-AUG-2014

# Trades Vol. Sold Vol. Bought PE Ratio Earnings Dividend Yield
50 42,299 12,984 -4.311 -47.66 0.00 0.00




Date
Time
Trade Prc
Volume
Buy/Sell
Bid
Ask
Value
 

31-Jul-15
16:50:06
207.00
248
Buy* 
205.50
206.75
513.36
Trade Type:
Ordinary

31-Jul-15
16:35:01
205.50
197
Sell* 
205.50
206.75
404.84
UT 
Trade Type:
Uncrossing Trade

31-Jul-15
16:29:04
207.00
10
Buy* 
205.50
207.00
20.70
Trade Type:
Automatic execution


*Buys and Sells are calculated on the difference between the trade price and the current mid price. As such, they can occasionally be incorrect.

View more Avanti Comm. trades >>

Directors Deals for Avanti Comm. (AVN)
Trade DateActionNotifierPriceCurrencyAmountHolding
04-Jul-14Buy
Trade Notifier Information for Avanti Communications Group
David J Williams held the position of CEO at Avanti Communications Group at the time of this trade.
 David J Williams
262.25GBX3,7630
04-Jul-14Buy
Trade Notifier Information for Avanti Communications Group
Matthew O'Connor held the position of COO at Avanti Communications Group at the time of this trade.
 Matthew O'Connor
262.25GBX1,8820
04-Jul-14Buy
Trade Notifier Information for Avanti Communications Group
David J Bestwick held the position of Technical Director at Avanti Communications Group at the time of this trade.
 David J Bestwick
250.03GBX4,0000
View more Avanti Comm. directors dealings >>

Date/Time
Author
Subject
Share Price
Opinion
Today 18:03
Jeffoto
Whitedawn
205.50
Strong Buy

Thanks so much for explaining how your modelling process works. It now makes sense to me, and useful to know that Bloomberg has provided the consensus projections. Also that you apply a 20% haircut. The one issue I have is that monthly sales haven't reached the target originally proposed by Avanti, ( which, I recall was £11m a month, well before they switched to dollar accounting). But, as you say, it is the nature of this business for sales to grow exponentially, and we must hope that sales really take off as the company gains a solid reputation among existing clients and is successful, in obtaining repeat orders, as well as new business from prestigious clients. Thank you again for informing us on this Board, and giving the lie to the weasel words of the doom mongers, including the short sellers.
Today 15:13
Whitedawn
RE: Whitedawn
205.50
Strong Buy

my process goes a bit like this: - i calculate a theoretical maximum fleet capacity based on recently reported capacity usage of 20-25% of the currently active fleet. So given that sales were 80m, and capacity usage of 22.5%, total sales that can be generated assuming 100% capacity usage is 80 / 22.5% = 355. - I then look at how much additional capacity will come online. i get that from the annual report, see satellite capacities on page 9 of the 2014 annual report http://www.avantiplc.com/sites/default/files/avanti-annual-report-2014.pdf - I then conclude that if 15 Ghz (current 3 sats) can generate 355m , then the additional 32 Ghz (hylas 3 and 4) would generate 355 / 15 Ghz (old capacity) * 32 Ghz (new capacity) = 757m. - so sales capacity from currently active sats of 355 + sales capacity of hylas 3 and 4 of 757m = USD 1112m total sales capacity if all satellites are up in the sky and fully filled. - I then haircut that by 20%, giving the entire calculation some slack (who knows maybe there may be some price pressure or maybe they just won't get to the full 100% capacity?) and assume 80% capacity, so 80% * 1112 = 890m. - I then take the consensus projected sales numbers for the next few years (from bloomberg) and conclude that the consensus projections are extremely conservative... if management is indeed right that they can generate USD 500m of EBITDA by 2021 then it means that the strong acceleration we noticed in the previous quarter will continue. The nice thing about these kind of businesses is that sales growth is exponential... like an ink mark on a cloth of paper, expanding fast in all directions. Note: my consensus projections for sales and ebitda come from Bloomberg Professional, which is a professional subscription service (www.bloomberg.com) which costs at least USD 19,000 per year for one license... i got the numbers from a friend who has a bloomberg license from work.
Today 13:54
Jeffoto
Whitedawn
205.50
Strong Buy

Thanks for the further piece on your modelling assumptions. I have tried to find the capacities (Ghz) of the four satellites on the AVANTI website, but only managed to locate 3Ghz for H1, so can you verify from where you get the capacities of the other 3 satellites. I recall reading somewhere that H4 will double the capacity of the 3 other satellites. Excuse my lack of understanding, but am I correct that one totals the consensus sales projections from Jun 15 through to Jun 19 to get your figures of 80% capacity and 890 m sales.
Today 12:08
Whitedawn
Jeffoto
205.50
Strong Buy

Jeffoto - I owe you an answer about my previous modelling assumptions. Hope the below helps. The currently active fleet has capacity of 15 Ghz. Current sales = USD 80m, with capacity utilization of 20-25%. Let’s assume 22.5%. Given 80m sales / 22.5% utilisation = USD 355m sales capacity from the currently active fleet. Given Hylas 3 + 4 add 32 Ghz of new capacity, this means that the additional sales capacity should be USD 757m (= USD 355 / 15 Ghz * 32 Ghz ) So total system sales capacity should be USD 1112m. Assume 80% capacity usage at peak, then that gets us USD 890m sales. The targeted EBITDA of USD 500m would imply a 56.2% EBITDA margin, which sounds very feasible. Management targets the 500m by 2021 I believe. If that were true, then the consensus sales growth is way too low. Which could well be the case, if you see how sales rocketed up in the past quarter… I assumed that no new satellites get commissioned and that there are no new future funding needs – I read somewhere that there may be another 100m note or so but I thought that that was satisfied with the equity issue a few months ago. TBC. Translating consensus sales projections as % of total capacity sales: - Jun 15: USD 80.5m Sales, USD 10m EBITDA = 7.2% total system capacity utilisation - Jun 16: USD 133.0m Sales, USD 49m EBITDA = 12.0% total system capacity utilisation - Jun 17: USD 180.0m Sales, USD 79m EBITDA = 16.2% total system capacity utilisation - Jun 18: USD 226.0m Sales, USD 128m EBITDA = 20.3% total system capacity utilisation - Jun 19: USD 271.0m Sales, USD 154.0m EBITDA = 24.4% total system capacity utilisation
Fri 20:34
Whitedawn
v quick thought on M&A
205.50
Strong Buy

Given how AVN is raking in the new big contracts, and given the strong acceleration of core growth in the previous quarter, and given how AVN also seems to be able to diversify by taking old fashioned Ku broadcasting business away from traditional Ku satcos (see Aragon contract), it look increasingly like AVN "will get there". So, given the above, the stock price is dirt cheap. And that means that M&A just has to become an option.... so how would we value M&A? say bid on the business from the current satellites that are up in the air - i think that this should be at least GBP 10 assuming full capacity? Then add the build cost of the hylas 3 and 4 - can't remember and not looked up but assume thats gbp 400k? so per share thats about GBP 2.8? So that brings us to a very rough and top of my head current m&a valuation of GBP 12 - 13? Thats 6x the current share price........
Thu 20:32
Jeffoto
Whitedawn
204.75
Strong Buy

Thanks for the link to the TTCL deal, and to Interactive.

Share prices shown are taken at time of message posting.
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