Ascential Share Price (ASCL)

Just bought in, think there is some upside from here.

They are paying out 850 as dividend to be left with their events division which had ebitda of about 85 in the last 12 months. Maybe apply 15% discount to the 850 dividend (722) and value events business on very conservative 10x ebitda (850) and assume business will be left with £100mln of debt (?).... that would leave the mkt cap at very conservative £1.47bln... and it closed today with mkt cap of £1.18bln.... so on very very conservative basis that gives stock 25% upside.... and actually events business is likely takeover target now, which dould put it on 15x ebitda... maybe that gives it another 30% upside on top of this.

I'm surprised stock didn't close higher. But then mtk doesnt seem to price things for uk midcaps until deals actually complete. Plus this stock has been painful for holders, so maybe some just wanted to get out. Lots of nerves. Hopefully stock will go higher tomorrow once news has been digested more...

I don’t get why this isn’t 100% + if they’re giving out 850ml to SH? Would it be paid as a dividend or what?

Apex today behind an offer for KCT via Kelvin (UK) Bidco Ltd. Could shortly see them make their move here.

I took a small position here a week ago following the impressive half-year results. The SP just looked too inviting for a company with 94% of shares held by institutions and a P/E around 15.

Sky are now reporting Apax Partners are back in for the WGSN slice "with discussions at an advanced stage". Their original enquiry earlier this year was in the region of £700m but now expected to be substantially below. Nevertheless, with an ASCL mkt cap of less than £1b, it could well see a significant sum deposited in the company coffers.