Aminex Share Price (AEX)

I agree good posting keep it up. If only you had written the last RNS.

Great posts, thanks, all rec as I can understand how much time and effort you've spent tonight posting..

"Plans are awaiting approval for Songas to expand the processing infrastructure by installing two new gas processing transmission trains on Songo Songo Island that could ultimately handle 200 MMcfd. With additional compression the capacity of the high pressure marine pipeline can then be raised from 102 MMcfd to 144 MMcfd. Then once the onshore pipeline is twinned, the system will be able to operate at up to 200 MMcfd." http://www.orcaexploration.com/operations_tanzania_exploration.asp ORCA are only going to put 120MMcfd into the new facility, leaving 80MMcfd of space available to Kiliwani for AEX.

So 2 x 20MMcfd to the new pipeline is my view. That is gas sales of $51,830,000 and AEX can claw back 75% of the "gross revenues less processing and pipeline tariffs and direct sales taxes in any year" to pay back the costs of Kiliwani and Ntorya-1 exploration, seismic and drilling. "The Tanzanian government's forward-looking pipeline project is progressing and will connect Aminex's two existing discoveries at Ruvuma and Kiliwani North to the key natural gas market in Dar es Salaam, providing a clear route to monetisation in 2014." http://www.investegate.co.uk/aminex-plc--aex-/rns/interim-management-statement/201211190700073888R/ Below is a repost of my info from a couple of days ago. --------------------- "Average Power Gas sales prices were up over Q2 to US$3.55/Mcf from US$2.80/Mcf, a result of higher prices provided under the Portfolio Gas Sales Agreement with TANESCO" "75% of the gross revenues less processing and pipeline tariffs and direct sales taxes in any year (“Net Revenues”) can be used to recover past costs incurred." http://www.orcaexploration.com/2012/2012_OrcaExploration_Q3_FULL.pdf Once commissioned, Aminex should benefit from its first Tanzanian revenues, and negotiation of a gas sales agreement with TPDC for delivery of 20 MMscf/d (gross) is in progress, the release said. 20MMcfd = 20,000Mcfd 20,000Mcfd x US$3.55/Mcf = $71,000/day x 365 = $25,915,000 per annum gas sales AEX can claw back 75% of the "gross revenues less processing and pipeline tariffs and direct sales taxes in any year" to pay back the costs of Kiliwani exploration, seismic and drilling. That will be a nice big cut of the sales value until the cash is recouped. After that it should get a similar deal to Orca, which ends up with 25% of the sales value (still far more than numpties were guesstimating on here earlier). Also from the Orca results: "On 8 November, His Excellency Jakaya Kikwete, President of the United Republic of Tanzania, formally commissioned the start of construction of the Mnazi Bay to Dar es Salaam Gas Pipeline Project, which will tie into expanded Songo Songo facilities onshore at Somanga Funga. The Government has stated that the 532km pipeline and its associated facilities are expected to be completed and commissioned in 18 months." 8 November plus 18 months is 8 May 2014, not the end of 2014 as AEX are 'conservatively' targeting.

More.... ORCA - not expanding production unless they get the right deal Before making commitments for further development at Songo Songo, the Company needs to establish that the commercial terms of future gas sales will ensure economic viability. Currently the government’s Natural Gas Infrastructure Project is contemplating allocating additional gas from Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay to power markets in the Dar es Salaam area. The project, which we understand is financed on a standalone basis, will require the repayment of loans to come exclusively from tariffs revenues derived from the pipeline and infrastructure. Accordingly, transportation and processing tariffs will be an important component of the cost of delivering gas to the markets, and in turn will have an impact on both the net back price to gas producers and the delivered gas price to TANESCO as the power producer. To deliver the lowest cost power to Tanzanians, the Government has the objective of purchasing gas at the lowest possible price, whilst the producers will be seeking a price which will deliver the appropriate economic returns. Bridging these differing objectives will be the subject of negotiations between the producers and TPDC in its capacity as gas aggregator. With the support of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (“MEM”) the Company has recently entered into negotiations with TPDC for Additional Gas sales. The Company’s current objective is to have approximately 190 MMcfd of total gas (or approximately 150 MMcfd Additional Gas sales) onstream by the end of 2014. A field development plan is being prepared for discussion with TPDC. Approximately 120 MMcfd would be expected to be dedicated to the expanded facilities and pipeline, with the balance to be processed and transported through the existing Songas facilities. http://www.orcaexploration.com/2013/2012_OrcaExploration_AR_FULL.pdf

The only gas that will be going into that pipeline when it's finished will be from Orca (but they have their expansion project on hold, pending agreement with Tanz Gov't so not guaranteed), Kiliwani for AEX, Mnazi Bay for Wentworth (as they can produce more than they currently are), potentially Ntorya for Aminex if they can get a pipeline in during the next 12-18 months, which I think they will. None of the big offshore fields are likely to be pumping gas into the new pipeline from day 1. So if the Tanz Gov't want as much gas as possible they need to give AEX the deal and get Kiliwani and Ntorya-1 connected and ready to go before the pipeline is finished. For day 1 I make it: ORCA - 120 MMcfd Wentworth - 80 MMcfd (rising to 200MMcfd at some point after day 1) AEX - Kiliwani - 20MMcfd AEX - Ntorya-1 - 20MMcfd That is only 240MMcfd rising to 360MMcfd, yet the pipeline will take 784MMcfd ------------------------------------------------------------------- Wentworth (proving that AEX were not the only one's restricted on gas production!) Selling gas into this coastal, transnational pipeline will be a significant event in the history of Wentworth. Since the discovery of the Mnazi Bay gas field in 1982 the substantial gas resources in this concession have been effectively "stranded". Gaining access to the greater markets of Tanzania is expected to allow full production from the Company's existing and future gas wells. http://www.wentworthresources.com/large-scale.php 12 NOVEMBER 2012 On Thursday, 8 November 2012, His Excellency Jaykaya Kikwete, President of the United Republic of Tanzania, laid the foundation stone at the Kinyerezi Gas Receiving Station for the start of construction of the Mnazi Bay to Dar es Salaam Gas Pipeline Project. The 532km pipeline and its associated facilities are expected to be completed and commissioned in approximately 18 months. Wentworth and its Mnazi Bay partners are in the process of finalizing a gas sales agreement to supply 80 mmcf/day of gas to this pipeline and have been asked by TPDC to increase this amount to 200 mmcf/day as soon as practicable. http://cws.huginonline.com/W/136496/PR/201211/1656910_5.html Pipeline to go all the way to Mombasa so will need more gas than just Dar Es Salaam http://www.oilreviewafrica.com/gas/gas/mtwara-gas-pipeline-to-stretch-up-to-mombasa-via-tanga 784 MMcf/d of gas is far more than will be available to the pipeline on day 1 The pipeline will have a capacity of 784 MMcf/d of gas, to be used for the production of 3,900 MW of electricity. On completion, the project will allow the Mnazi Bay Concession partners and others to transport natural gas to large-scale electricity producers, and other industrial users and major population centres in Tanzania. http://pipelinesinternational.com/news/tanzanian_pipeline_construction_inaugurated/077220/