Armadale Capital Share Price (ACP)

True, not easy to raise capital in this climate. But if you believe Blackrocks figures they have $150m+ raised (conditional on completing the deal of course, and it could be the last hurdles are hardest) so there is definitely appetite in these kinds of projects. They have the worlds largest non China graphite trader on board. Our capex is a lot less than Blackrocks and that's a good thing. GLA

All the information we have at the moment is over 2.5 years old. Things have obviously changed a lot since then. I don’t know if or how much of that information can be carried forward. However, it’s all we have so I’ll get my calculator out and try to make some sense. Old figures NPV US$430 million, CAPEX US$39.7 million IRR 91%. Shares in issue 588 million. All this for the initial phase utilising 25% of the resource. So, because, I’ve been so hammered on HZM, I’m going to be really, really optimistic and pessimistic with my calculator and also round things to suite.

So optimistic NPV £400 million, CAPEX £30 million and 700 million shares (inclusive of government share). Debt equity ratio 70:30. £21 million debt £9 million equity. So after government agreement with a share price of 3p. That would mean 300 million new shares to be issued. Future valuation up to 40p a share!

Pessimistic NPV £300 million, CAPEX £60 million and 700 million shares. Debt equity ratio 50:50. £30 million debt £30 million equity. So after government agreement with a share price of 3p. That would mean one billion new shares to be issued. Future valuation up to 18p a share!

If that amount can be raised in this climate, well!

Don’t believe anything I say as I don’t have a clue.

I have definitely learnt my lessons on HZM.

Going forward with Armadale I sincerely hope we recoup some of our losses, however, I need to keep in mind recouping losses must not be a driver in the decisions made for ACP. I must treat this in isolation, but also, take into account the lessons learnt from HZM. This share would need to get to 10p for me to recover all HZM losses, so I’m not looking at that as a factor.

Unfortunately I can’t offset against capital gains as all my investments were in either my SiPP or ISA.

I have 3 million shares here @ 2.7p. (Not the 3.5 million I said yesterday, sorry I was getting carried away)

Armadale currently is a waiting game. A week, month or a year I haven’t a clue. To be honest it’s so long ago something substantial happened here I’ve forgotten all the details. Too focused on HZM. I’ll need to look at it all over again and work out what is the best here.

Laurie (again off topic here, apologies) I too like Rover saw HZM as the banker and I had something like 40% of my total invested in it maybe later 50% as it was what I was adding the last year or so. What was interesting I was roundly critisized on the board by many when I pruned my position after the first financing round (I didn't like the deal). Which was odd because I wan't bigging the share up to sell, I was pretty neutral/not impressed with the deal.

The lesson learnt is there is no such thing as a nailed on investment and that's applicable to both AIM and main market investments. So diversifying sufficiently to not lose your shirt on one investment whilst retaining enough upside to make money when things go well (nobody invests in AIM stocks for 10% overall return - no point for the risk - lets face it where here for multiples). I was lucky, I still have other investments, and even until a month or so ago I didn't think HZM would go to 0.

The other thing is obviously not to fall in love with a stock, things can change that make a good investment into a less good one. You constantly have to analyse and determine what the exit point is. There's plenty of jaded investors here and I always wondered why they don't sell, they obviously don't need that money too badly. The minimum is always 0, so if you don't believe in mgt / the project its best to take the loss and move on. I am awaiting Blackrock developments here as I firmly believe they have to move first before we can get going then the clock starts ticking on this one.

To Rover's point there are positives here that HZM didn't have. JM took a near 8 figure remuneration from HZM in his tenure without contributing any of his own money to the company. MB here is very different here in this regard and has put in a lot of his own money to making this project. This is one of the reasons I stay invested. GLA

Rover, thank you for your reply, I have no choice but to take the loss and I have to and I am coming to terms with it, it is extremely painful but I will of course get through it. I had HZM as a banker and it had started to restore my faith in AIM as everything was working like clockwork.

I must move on but great to hear both you and Wasa are ok