Richard, My own view for what its worth and fairly simplistic. It was floated too cheap but that happens to a lot of shares and ofcourse there was a fair deal of on going news and paper talk etc which got more investors in than you would normally see. It did rise too quickly and £6.00 was unjustified for a "new" Nationalised company coming to the market place. Not saying the share is not worth £6.00 but not enough good reason for me, quite yet. Fundamentals have always been good, their Trade union issues have / are been addressed and they are battling hard v competitors, especially on price. I always felt that this is a good £5.00 share and 388, 390s and 400 seemed incredible value. 450 is still value but if it does go any higher, lets say 475, not too much profit in the short term. MAYBE WRONG. Most of my shares in RMG were bought below 450 and a decent amount @ 399. Yes I did purchase at 526 but never bought this share when it was on the way up..., therefore my break even figure is 428.50. So, that my simplistic view on this share, always said , always will , its steady £5.00+ share......
RMG price now is above 450, but the thing to monitor is whether the day's low goes above 450. which wont be today as the low currently is 445.7, really you want it to go a clear margin above 450 without further announces. announces can change trends. beware the interims could cause a major trend change in either direction. lse and the other website both show buying outdoing selling which is a good sign. but there is the danger I mentioned that when enough buying has occurred the price could plummet. the price could stabilise around 450 until enough buying has accumulated for the mm's to have a deficit of shares, then the price plummets. I think you need to micromanage if you buy in now. @adramforall after breakfast today I realised what the long term trader dilemma is: if you bought shares at 10p 20 years ago, and have been ongoingly accumulating shares and the price now is 1000p. then any sale would probably get CGT on 1000p - 10p which would be a lot of capital gains. From this I can understand why such an investor would never want to sell any! this then is a hazard of long term trading. to mitigate, I think you need to take SOME profits at local highs where you would get higher capital gains than usual to mitigate the CGT. you could also spread out the CGT by selling and immediately rebuying where you would then pay the CGT so far plus 0.5% stamp duty. For tax, clearly you have to use the official rules. which is a complicating factor which I havent studied. ultimately you will need to pay CGT. the ISA only shields the dividend income. if you pay your CGT, in totality I think you'd make more money. @JJSS its taken a lot of work to decipher the market makers. For tactical trading its essential to second guess the market makers. all the hazards are from how they do things. if you understand their methodology, I think you can boost your profits regardless of your own methodology. the mm's are the most powerful agents of the scene and what they do is mostly tactical. I think they also look at the entire stock exchange in totality, and when the totality is overbought ie their totality is sufficiently in deficit, that is when you get a market crash. when the FT100 is very high and very volatile, that is when the dangers are. volatility means the progress is tactical and false. most experts never even consider the market makers, its only on british forums that people talk of the mm's. I have never seen any US mailing list or advisory website talk about the mm's. the market makers follow long term tactics as well as short term. if you use tactical methodology for long term investing you can become seriously rich. I am doing this now by waiting months or even years before I place some long term trades. meanwhile the money is invested outside the stock market.
Richard seems determined to peddle the idea that we are the constant victims of market manipulation by the dastardly middle men (those nasty venal market makers). He conveniently forgets that larger companies (those in the FTSE-100), are traded on the electronic SETS system. In SETS, there are NO human market makers in the middle, so when a client wants to buy shares he can only buy at a price that other shareholders are willing to sell at. As RMG sits very firmly in the index of larger companies this is the trading system that applies. In other words while much of the volatility in this share might reflect market turbulence and the undisputed fact that several so called "long term" holders sold out large stakes in RMG early after flotation, we certainly cannot blame the MMs for our woes (or triumphs!) here. And that's really all that market makers try to replicate. Rather than unfairly changing prices or restricting sales in order to maximise their own profits, what they try to do is set the prices at the levels needed to balance supply and demand, similarly to the prices that SETS would produce when directly matching buyers and sellers (but with a larger spread, to cover their own profits).
I am here my friend but have been a tad busy................. 227 original investors have well gone or have bought more. Cannot see in a million years, if there is more than 5% of those lads and lassies with just 227...from day one to today. Well, I bought back in @ 399 to average out my losses and wanted / needed 425 and above to see light at the end of the tunnel, like a lot I suggest, a figure of 450 and above gets many many back into the black.. I am more than happy for this share to stablise for the time being @ 450-460 with NO great increases or decreases. MORE THAN HAPPY at present.
RE: fair comment
"I think my approach is the most accurate way to evaluate trades. your "average" approach is fine, but it prevents you profiting at negative equity. there is no right or wrong approach, you can go for average, or for earliest first, I go for lowest first. portfolio valuation is not well defined, we have here 3 different definitions." I'd rather go with the CORRECT WAY and make sure my tax return was correct when I reported gains/losses.
Sp. Has now reached Richards predicted price.Is a fall back to £4.00 now on the cards?
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.