You cant type a completely arsey essay & then say 'all this is in my IMHO' at the end to excuse it. Plonker
Who is everyone going to turn to to blame for an under performing share after the 18th ? And all this bogus talk about gas in the southern fields is cloud cuckoo land stuff. There is the potential (though would require close analysis of, given the general sea state) that oil found North of the island could be commercially viable due to the possible deployment of an FPSO (very weather sensitive) to aid initial development. Gas on the other hand requires piping back to a viable land point, unless that is that there are plans to install a gas liquification train (very expensive) in the Falkland Islands, or a floating liquification plant ( equally expensive, subject to adverse weather to the extent it is likely not viable, and even then the philosophy is still in the embryo phase). That is not to say that I do not think that FOGL is not worthy of investing in, but it would either be as a non long term investment (i.e. I would be looking to ride the SP but bail out before hitting any potential reservoir), or if I felt there was a medium term investment potential in hanging on in there due to FOGL's share of the PMO wells. Dislike this post if you like, but we are in this business to make money from our investments, in whatever manner that takes, but at least I lay my cards openly, and honestly, on the table. I, in my humble opinion, just wished to point out that anyone who wishes to continue to blame the lack of progress in any SP due to issues relating to the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday will very soon run out of that excuse, and when it comes to oil & gas production in the Falkland Islands, oil, and gas, are VERY separate beasts indeed. All of the above, and as always, is merely IMHO. GLA, but keep your eyes on the ball, and your intellect switched on. :)
MaoWombat you may yet regret that. No-one knows what the 2018/19 oil price will be.But PMO are using $85 which suggests that the Sealion project is probably robust at $60 or perhaps slightly less. So even after tax take and shipping etc a reasonable profit is probably likely. As always the problem will likely be US shale oil by 2018 and at the moment there is no indication of its cost of extraction although they may well use the new octopus system which will produce up to six wells on one half acre platform so in theory its very efficient. On the question of FOGL's Southern blocks these are as yet unproven but of course they could have large oil deposits or possibly gas. The new 3D when published should at least provide some clues but these will need to be drill tested. If the 3D shows a possible 2bln plus bbls of oil (or gas equivalent) then the S/P should increase to the 42-45p range quite quickly and possibly higher thereafter. For now though we need first to get rid of the Salmond farce. Its a little early to look at the year end situation as there are many outside matters which may influence this. Re today's S/P it was interesting that a small late trade went through at near 31p so the price tomorrow may not drop much.
Or is it
Scare tactics before the whopper 3D RNS??
Will the markets favour a no vote?
Nearly all the stock down today, do to the Scotland vote.
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