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We can but hope....
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028311/price-earnings-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-in-europe/
"Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?"
I know the question wasn't addressed to me, but I'm answering anyway!
No, it means a market cap way in excess of $6 billion, maybe 5 - 10x (depending on how much of that $6B gets to the bottom line). So potentially $30 - $60 Billion.
I think that's more than £8 a share though - maybe my maths is wrong :)
Six weeks from dosing to surgery was the plan.
I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !
""Why is everyone stressed ?
Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.
From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.
If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.
Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).
Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.
From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""
Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.
Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?
I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA
Over there, courtesy of Marcus . . one of 3 Companies on a One2One Forum, 29th May, 6pm at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, (in Mayfair).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?
hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?viewSource=TwitterUK
This release is part of the softening up process to get us to 30p guys. Why? Cause stiflel is theirs.
So when’s it coming?
Johnny - thanks for that, appreciated
Hi Bermuda,
Your 12.26, you ask “I'm not sure what the interval is between dosing and surgery, perhaps someone else here can tell us, but I expect it's several weeks.”
According to the Procedure Chart “Surgery (+ tumour assessment and a blood test to check on activity of immune cells)” is visit day 50 (Though confusingly the chart refers to week 6):-
https://modi-1-neoadj.digitrial.com/steps/7
The previous page (page 6 on the above link) tells us that initial screening can take up to 4 weeks to check that the patient is suitable for the study. It also says “You will also need to come to the clinic approximately 6 weeks after your surgery, for a final assessment.”
So once a patient is accepted onto the study it takes a total of about 92 days until final assessment (50 days plus approximately 6 weeks).
Thanks Troajan,
TLDR:
Reiterating its 'buy' advice and 30p a share price target, the bank said: "We continue to see significant value in Scancell's highly innovative approach to cancer vaccine development.
"We see the next 12 months as a potentially transformative period for the business and view Scancell as an attractive investment at these levels."
Moonparty,
Worth remembering that the combination arm of the Modi1 trial is only recruiting head and neck and renal cancer patients and originally intended to combine with a single checkpoint inhibitor. As at the end of January they were waiting for approval from the MHRA for a protocol amendment to change the setting of the renal cohort from 3rd line to first line and the combination from a single CPI to to the doublet therapy of Opdivo (PD-1) and Yervoy (CTLA4). Assume they are still waiting for this approval from MHRA and therefore not currently recruiting to the renal cancer cohort. So it may well be that they have only been recruiting to the head and neck cohort which means recruitment has been slower than expected. All we know is that as at July last year they had recruited and dosed 3 combination patients to the safety run in cohort 4. We don't know whether any further patients have been recruited since and if so how many.
As for the neoadjuvant study, as at the 30th January they had recruited a total of 2 patients. The first was a monotherapy patient. He/she had been dosed and resected and their tumour was undergoing analysis. A second patient had been recruited to the combination arm and was about to receive his/her first dose. I'm not sure what the interval is between dosing and surgery, perhaps someone else here can tell us, but I expect it's several weeks.
You'll note that all RNSs simply say early data from these arms will be reported in 2024 but I've listened again to the interims webcast and fortunately Lindy is a little more specific. It will be late this year - possibly Q3 but more likely Q4.
Given that they're only recruiting head & neck cancer patients at the moment, I'm pretty certain that there are no hidden reasons (positive or negative) for the lack of combination/neoadjuvant updates - they simply haven't recruited enough patients yet.
Nevertheless I hope that Scancell will at least provide a progress report on recruitment and possibly early safety data. Perhaps they will.
Given what was last said about the antibodies, it may well be that one of the five possible deals is now close at hand.
It is also interesting to ponder whether the raise late last year was accelerated, due to an expectation that they would be unable to raise during 2024 due to close periods relating to continuing discussions on multiple fronts (as there very well may be at present, given the two trials and the antibody possibilities). Whatever the cause, I see no reason whatsoever for assuming the hiatus in newsflow is negative - and would take a strong view to the contrary.
Its a logical conclusion Burble, and might apply to a number of products.... what would we conclude if they stopped going to these meetings altogether and for no apparent reason? I have had the feeling that something is afoot for a while, if there was a serious problem, they would need to tell us, but if things are going along swimmingly you would asume they would be desperate to tell us, but it appears we are in limbo so you have to ask why?.... NDA is very a possible reason .
So this is the wording on Modi-1 in latest RNS:
"I am also looking forward to presenting early data from patients receiving Modi-1 as a monotherapy in range of hard-to-treat solid tumours, which has shown good T cell responses, safety and tolerability"
We already knew results from mono-therapy had not been as as good as some had hoped/expected.
Careful avoidance of the combo results though - is this simply because those results are not being presented at the conference and/or possibly are not available yet (in statistically significant numbers at least).
It seems modi-1 has had the desired T-cell outcome, so combined with checkpoints one would hope for a much better efficacy read.
I don't think LD would be presenting modi-1 at all if it was dead in the water.
The same thought has occurred to me, because little is being said (and nothing, so far, that is new - despite the ongoing trials etc). There is no obvious reason for them to be in a close period, especially after the raise a few months back - and so I suspect that “things are going on”.
I must admit I’ve been wondering if they’re in a closed period. Just a hunch and I may be wrong
Or maybe in close period /NDA with itself , looks they are in close period since raise of extra fund and when in open period SP is in free fall.
Careful choice of wording regarding Modi-1 suggest that results so far are below expectation ?
I didn’t say the patent was delayed. I was reminding you that they deliberately held information back whilst they got enough info to support the patent application - and I am suggesting that similar commercial considerations may be behind the hiatus in updates
It is now nearly nine months since the trial expansion I mentioned below was announced - and they should have had some sort of readout within two months or so of dosing the first patient in that resection cohort. So I repeat…..what do these assessments show?
The Moditope patent wasn't delayed due to a discovery - the discovery of Moditope was made and as is absolutely normal in bio/pharma, the following period was spent gathering the evidence to support the patent application. We have been told that Moditope has an incredibly broad patent and it would be unthinkable for a company to hold up clinical trial updates (which only need to be very general) while they research and submit another patent application.
Cleaner,
The article got truncated in your post. Here's a link....
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/needle-hay-stack-jeroen-wissink-ateke/
As you say, worth a read.
Needle in a hay stack
Jeroen Wissink
CEO Uneedle | Intradermic | therapeutic vaccine delivey | cancer immunology
excellent article
We have many millions of mature helper T cells with unique T cell receptors (TCRs) in our body. In case of a serious infection or onset cancer our life depends on just one of them. How the Immune System Actually Works from Philip Dettmer - Kurzgesagd helps us understand.
Unique T cells
This diversity of mature helper T cells is fantastic feature of our immune system, crucial for our body's ability to recognise and respond to diseases and fight the onset of cancer.
We have a cure for any virus, bacteria or mutated cell
So for any virus, bacteria or cancer cell we carry a few matching memory T cells with a corresponding TCR to their antigens. We have the cure in us. Incredible, but true. And this is not new; this part of the immune system has evolved over hundreds of millions of years with us. And not just in humans, it works for most creatures - eaten alive without the immune system - in a similar way.
Dendritic cells to find a single T cell
In case of a serious infection or a cluster of unwanted, mutated cells the dendritic cells - one of the most potent antigen presenting cells - must trigger the helper T cells. Dendritic cells sample unknown or unwanted cells and break them apart to present fragments as antigens on their surface via so called MHC-II molecules.
Target for these antigens presented are the helper T cells, and there are a few helper T cell - somewhere in the body - with the matching receptors (TCR) to the antigen. Dendritic cells must travel to find that specific matching T cell, which is floating somewhere in lymph, in a lymph node. Since there are only a few helper T cells for every unique TCR combination - among many millions of different TCR combinations - it may take a few days before the match is found and before the adaptive immune system kicks in. Relatively slow, but very effective.
A single T cell multiplies
It is considered it a bit of a miracle that the match is always be made. But it is, and this is one of the true beauties of the immune system.
Once found, this unique memory helper T cell is woken up and after some time - remember it has been asleep for years or decades - starts to clone from a single cell to many millions. The counterattack to eliminate the pathogens has begun.
Essentially it is math: the number of specific proteins we - humans and animals, but also the pathogens - can present in the form of an antigen on the surface is limited to a few millions and that seems to be unique enough to uniquely identify viruses, bacteria or cancer antigens as foreign, to be eliminated from the body.
Killer T cells and B cells
At this point the adaptive response becomes more diverse. Some initial helper T cells transform into transform into killer T cells that actually help attack, but most cells transform to do act
BS,
i know they were. And after a considerable delay, due to a discovery.
If I knew the answer to your question, I wouldn’t b3 sat here. Who knows what, if anything, may have been discovered. in (or alongside) the trial? For example, it would be reasonable to assume that at least one or two tumours have now been examined after being removed six weeks after being treated……so what did they discover from this?
This is what they said at the end of July:
“ Additionally, recruitment into the neoadjuvant arm of the Modi-1 trial in combination with CPI was also approved. This study will recruit 30 patients who will be randomised at diagnosis to receive either two doses of Modi-1 three weeks apart or two doses of Modi-1 plus one dose of CPI. Tumour biopsies will be taken prior to immunisation and from the tumour resection 6 weeks following the initial vaccination. The two tumour samples will allow the extent of T cell infiltration and activation pre- and post-Modi-1 vaccination to be assessed with and without a checkpoint inhibitor.”
….so what do these assessments show?
A good debate on the meaning of universal. However, whilst wearing a hat as a pair of pants is not impossible, wearing a pair of pants as a hat has shown to have greater efficacy.
Ee
Modi patents were filed years ago - what possible IP related reason could there be for witholding Modi1 trial updates?