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All we are seeing is endless speculation, they say no smoke without fire but we are all smoke at the moment…. And so to another week…. Could it be the last ha ha
For me it is all in the way he expressed that in the webinar and when he talked about buying resource and then stopped, almost thinking he had said too much. Yes you could read otherwise but thats fine. He also suggested and reason for Marathon deal is they are not happy with 2x cashflow. He thinks exposure go canada will change that. Nic is a cashflow monster we know that but its also fairly obvious that running mill at less than half capacity for last 5 years is not what investors want to see. Calibre want to hot 500k a year asap so if you consider they are hoping to double their shareprice to $2.4bn or so if they can do a fast fix in Nic with mininal expense they will. Yes ortega might prefer chinese and chinese will want the mine but Calibre will also be keen for many reasons. We know its 2 horse race and time of delay is probably down to price etc. It could be either way but do we care as long as a deal is announced asap or they crack on with a JV with Calibre and keep status quo.
More likely in my view is that the increase in gold price now means that potential buyer's offers are increasing to the point where JM may seriously consider them. He's probably had a price in mind from the beginning, but no-one was willing to pay it. Hopefully, that is changing...
Maybe a price had almost been agreed and then the increase in gold price means we are trying to renegotiate
Simms, he said they are not only replacing reserves but adding them. He cited going from 200 k yo 1.1m so they have replaced any used ore and added 900 k oz in reserves. Cnr have 600 k . They are adding by exploration. Permitting and new concessions. They are making plenty of cash with an underused mill and will be bringing on extra resources on stream. If. Valuations here are to be believed they would need to pay $200 m and then another $100 m to build a mine they don’t need. Imagine how many oz they would prove up with $2-300 m in exploration?
As we know Nicaragua doesn’t give a good return on sp even though it is a good cheap jurisdiction. Mines in safer higher valued areas are more likely imv .
On top of that I believe the gvnt will be looking for Chinese diversity . It is the sensible course.
Whoever it is they are taking an age which isn’t generally a good sign in my book !
I take it your email buddy has gone quiet on you then Simms? Could be a good sign like you say............
If we were not in latter stages of a sale we would have probably had an annual report last month but as sale is close i guess they will not release until concluded or they need to do by LSE requirments. Its probably 6 months still some time. Almost no news since December and complete blackout on any comms from board. Obviously something is about to drop but when is the question. Maybe next week?
It's quite possible that a deal was struck with Calibre weeks ago. They can't sign the paperwork until Calibre is happy until their cash raising activities are complete and the money is in the bank account.
If we have not heard anything by the end of next week, then I think the recent rise in sp has been a false hope.
I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend. Surely Onion will be updating us next week now that Calibre have raised the funds?!!
‘ ‘
His version of very soon is nowhere near mine, we are reduced to guessing what other companies may do now as CNR has managed to provide little to no useful information for 18 months, sadly they are still being paid for their lack of activity.
I would add that in the last webinar Ryan did not answer what they wanted $115m given they already have close to $200m in cash after gold forward sale and currently printing vast quantities of cash at almost $2400 gold. Ryan equally said, and cut short as i think he might have let on more than he should, about acquring resource as their aim is to boost Calibre shareprice by sorting its Nic project that has suffered from one of its operations to be barely operating and investors have a 2x cashflow valuation on Calibre compared go 6x for Canadian operators. They have now bought the Marathan mine to try and change the shareprice dynamic but until Calibre fully fix the Nic issue of under utilisation and low reserves they continue to be under rated by a large factor. They could keep on as they are investing $25m a year in exploration and in maybe 3-5 years reach 5m ounces that Ryan also spoke about as a key target l, presumably to sell to a major, or cut short 3 years and buy Condor, truck ore in 3 months and crack on. Add 1m reserves and 2m inferred and get one of the largest, ic not the largest, license over a huge amount of gold. We will need to wait but it seems crazy for Calibre to have so much cash on its books and nothing to do with it. I am sure China are also pushing hard and perhaps why we are still waiting but if Jim with a firm handshake says “very very soon” he meant it. i am just hoping his version of very very soon is similar to mine :)
Learner, but to be fair he already did a volte face from predicting 150 k oz for this year so what’s another volte face amongst friends lol.
For any newcomers here are some reasons to think Calibre is the leading bidder:
1) they are already well established in Nicaragua
2) they were busy completing a previous acquisition until earlier this year
3) they have just raised further funding of $115million and indicated they want to expand in Nic (although it's unclear if this is through expanding existing sites or acquiring new ones)
I've thought Calibre were the most likely buyers from day 1. But obviously if they have made a bid it has been on the low side; maybe rejected by Jim; and hence why they've raised the extra money.
This is my obviously very speculative reading of events!
Mega toll mining deal to process CNR for 20 years, no chance IMHO. Calibre in strong position now to take the lo if they want, unless the Chinese are very interested. CNR now very attractive buy with POG trajectory, but many will not risk investing in Nicaragua. Calibre already there and Chinese happy to invest in South America.
Up to JM now what he is willing to accept, if deal is not struck soon has JM the desire to raise finance to build a mine?
He has already said we are not miners but that would be some about turn.
Cnr permits are to construct a mine.
Assuming its calibre and linked to the fund raising would we not hear v soon. At what point do we dismiss that possibility?
Calibre probably wanted more than 50% of the profits, which is probably why the previous attempt at arranging a toll deal never came to fruition. Their prerogative of course. I assume they felt, rightly, that we needed them more than they needed us. But even so, it's a shame that a mutually profitable arrangement couldn't have been found. Regardless, it's water under the bridge at this point. I can't see it being revived now.
They have tried that and had just about finalised a deal with B2Gold before they sold to Calibre. They were impressed with the 2 samples that they took.
Would a mega toll mining deal be an option. How much spare capacity does Calibre have? Process our ore for the next 20 years and split the profit? No initial outlay for them
Strange how we have ticked up with the majority of trades being sells and only 16 shares bought. Wondering of there is a large buy order waiting to be filled
Very, very soon!
But when!!!
The Chinese are coming 👀👀
At least there should be an indication to prove or disprove the Calibre rumour soon
I realise we are all extremely frustrated with this but regurgitation of the mine/sale will solve nothing