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It come from Colins mouth.
"We have no Blue Sky"
"Bushranger, disappointing for everyone "
"Hopefully get our money back for BR, and a little more"
"Two new company making projects We are looking at"
Even if we get 10-30 million for in 2 years, will that be given to shareholders as a dividend?....no a chance!!
Manica revenue....6 million dollars=4.67 million pounds. Lets say 4 million after exspenses(optimistic).
32%tax= 2.72M Left
2.72 x 3.5 = £9.45M
Non of which shareholder will see, it will all go on the next treasure hunt.
Don't worry Ma I'm not offended.
You are not the first to have called me Hor
I tend not to post too much here, just pop in now and then. Keep eyes on things and wondering if I'll ever get my 6p back!
Though downtrend has slowed so I have now managed to average down to 2.3p and on the next dip we are in I will buy more at 1.3p - expecting that in 7-10 days or so.
Will give me a final average SP around 2p - which should give me a good chance of getting out of dodge at break evens!
- though I won't be fully selling up, nope. Just taking back out all my averaging down funds and leaving in my now lower SP original investment.
As a Northerner, who is neither a geordie or a mackem I just felt the need to give advice regarding calling everybody from the North East a geordie, it tends not to go down too well. Imagine going up to a Ukrainian and saying oh I can tell from your accent you are Russian.....now I know its completely different situation and I am not making light of their difficulties. Just pointing out that you will end up with a similar reaction!
Good luck all
Go team Colin, managed to get away with it for another year!
That was definitely the question Captainbob. Thanks for clarifying, that is a significant point that will please many that maybe felt the financial demands would put too much strain on the treasury. Although we still could be waiting a further year or two it dies change the dynamics to that of now being able to prioritise Manica without those uncertainties of greater cash flow needed for BR hence giving substance to CB’s comment that priorities will be toward Manica now.
Hi Captain
My understanding was that he wasn’t going to embark on a further drilling campaign to hit 2million tonnes, I don’t believe he expressly stated more/no more drilling but as he said about optimising the model I took this that they will explore different plant sizes, pit shells, ore sorting etc etc and if the model would benefit from more drilling in a particular area they will do it (this part about drilling is me reading between the lines)
Cheers
James
Colin said he did not plan any further drilling at BR, it would need to spent 8m for 15000m to find the 2MT, not want to waste time, further oprimisation by my recollection would be by looking at altwrnative sorting methods?
Sorry how rude of me ma
>>what shall I do.
Buy more lottery tickets!
Genius in making ma, problem solving at early age. At least, we hope was an early age!
This boy bunked his exams coz he got job on a building site. Was back in one day and heard a loud bark from headmaster, OY Shelby boy were you been?
Got a job sir.
He shook my hand and said “good on ya lad, you’ll be able to afford to pay your parents back when they find out you didn’t sit any exams when they get the bill for the missed exam fees!
My reply….. I’m working for my dad, but it’s ok sir I’ll go to the school office now and pay it myself 😂
>>Rolling in field laughing me head off
Making me peckish, might do myself some mushrooms on toast for lunch!
Skool dwopout fwend I get it now 😉
>>none of you said HELLO and WELCOME back after fateful 2359 post to dear Col.
Dani you are a Brer Rabbit. No one doubted for one minute you would not return.
Some may have hoped…….
Smart girl 👍
Ok, so after adding jamesiecakes notes to the others, (thank you James) the only real conflict I can see from notes going foreword are regarding further drilling.
Captainbob >> “it’s looking as though BR will not need more drilling”
James >> “It's also important to note that this won't be the final model and will go through numerous optimisations. “
I did say they will tweak the model until they peak the economic performance, they will no doubt try other pre-concentration, which again to chop and change is not uncommon. Caravel have left out completely their chosen BOS model that was in their scoping study, from their PFS in the hope that technological advances would improve to then incorporate in their DFS.
So the feedback from Bob could be that, no more drilling will be required, leading up to the next update of the economic model due Q3/4, but we could then see, further optimisation drilling being carried out along side the other resource optimisation work stated by James going into ‘24
Which does tally with what we already know and is the most likely as there will be further increases in resource gained from drilling, which will subsequently then be improved on further with the resulting resource optimisation.
Unless, if anyone who attended can either confirm or deny that they are ‘not’ going to be spending any more on drilling and will only use other resource optimisation to improve the economics after the updated model is released?
Naughtygordie
"MB, that E makes all the difference , one is me the other is a slang term for someone from sunderland/newcastle ! ;)"
please do not make the mistake of calling somebody from Sunderland a geordie!
Especially to their face, at best you will get sworn at but it could end up with a punch!
A person from Sunderland is called a mackem
MB, is he a deleuzian academic ?
MB, would you say he resembled the infamous " EL GORDO" ? , maybe he/i couldn't wink because of the botox and just appeared to be staring and trying hard , ;)
Jamesiecakes:
Thank you for the update from the XTR AGM.
I had my views but wanted to see what Mr Bird would say relating to Bushrangers.
From the results, Mr Bush confirms himself that the grade "FELL BIT SHORT."
In terms of the sorting, I had mentioned some time ago that Gina Rinehart has these new state of art sorters that
can extract from the waste and makes her mine even more profitable.
As for Bushrangers, if one looks at Newcrest next door, I mentioned that Ridgeway was found not so easily.
They had tested the down hole and found nothing more ie mineralisation.
They then went back and thought about it and decided to DRILL the BARREN GAP and found HIGH GRADE and that is now history. Cadia is very much lower grade.
I wondered why Mr Bird is not calling the TRIO or one of the Geo's to try to figure out Bushranger as there is
a possibility that there is MORE TO IT GIVEN geophysics stated there are many CLUSTERS at Bushranger per the presentation.
In terms of taking some time to monetise, I was quite aware of that and like ALL projects, that is predicated on
copper prices expected to go higher when demand vs supply becomes very tight [text book]?
As for SKY BLUE ie 2 possible projects, that sounds exciting IF it is in a Tier 1 jurisdiction.
Thank for your kind notes and sharing. Very much appreciated. I have been waiting a long time
to hear what Mr Bird has to say.
General
After the assets were discussed, someone asked XTR priorities, he said stabilise Manica, more of the same in Zambia (I assume small stuff like Kakuyu). Then he started talking about some big acquisition they are looking at (2) both exploration which he feels are potential company makers and offer blue sky and that there is no blue sky in the current portfolio.
I asked about funding for the acquisitions and he went off on a bit of a tangent but my understanding of his answer was that he hopes to do this via cash flows/ deal structure that avoids this. I think CB wants to avoid dilution but he will if he believes that the deal is too good for him to turn down (why I think in hindsight he made clear at the start about the vote in issuing shares etc)
I also asked him about if bushranger doesn't offer blue sky, as above it wasn't a straight answer but my takeaway was that BR is going to take time to monetise and CB is worried that investors will lose interest and hence need something new and sexy. Not sure it's investors or him who wants something new though!
My notes and thoughts from today's AGM, happy to be challenge corrected by other attendees
Vote
CB really emphasised and ensured that everyone in the room understood that the directors have if the vote passes the power to issue shares. His emphasis on this very much made me feel as if a placing is going to happen.
Bushranger
CB very open that he's disappointed with BR, and made the comment that the grade fell a bit short.
There are other Ore sorting technologies which might be better for BR, but the Tomra stuff is good enough to update the economic model with for now.
The updated economic model will focus on the high-grade material in BR and then look to make use of Ore sorting after this high grade is depleted. He mentioned that the pre concentration gets the grade to where it needs to be
He spoke about 2 million tonnes, but to be honest I lost interest at this point...I asked him about the decision to mine (DTM) and he basically said this would be tricky to prove to AA that they have taken the DTM and would likely end in court. As such he intends to negotiate an exit from the AA Claus, e.g. give them a royalty etc. Clearly a little concerning if AA don't play ball.
The study should be available September-October but made the point that he has been let down by forecasts from consultants before. It's also important to note that this won't be the final model and will go through numerous optimisations.
He did make a comment that he's still confident off getting back what's been spent and more, suggesting to me he values BR in the £10-20m range (I think it's safe to say he would snap AAs hands off if they offered 10p)
Manica
Currently in the 65-70kg range (dry season), with grade around 1.7-1.75/ton.
Should be around 500-600k a month profit (USD) at current prices etc
Recent report received gives a mine life of 4 years for the oxides, however CB stated they are using 2/2.5 (guy in the crowd who is working for XTR agreed with 2/2.5). Reason for the difference was the Ore body doesn't behave as you think always.
Plant modification/additional plant - if XTR don't put any capex in they will stick with current agreement e.g. a 23% share, however if they pay a share of capex this share will be increased. He mentioned March 2024 for the next stage decisions/orders etc so I would hope to get an RNS on the details in the next 6 months or so.
Talk about building the new plant on the resource to avoid trucking etc (I only half heard this so happy for others to correct add to this)
As we know from the original MMP deal any exploration will be a 50/50 deal with MMP, however if MMP don’t participate in the drilling this goes to 77% XTR
Kakuyu
Had a bit of production already, very small scale
To get too proper production need a plant, costing around 1.25m which would require 4/5 years of material. They are currently planning which should take 6-8 months so we should hear some news early in the
A4444
Measured post thanks.
I am just wondering, somewhat sarcastically, if anyone got the opportunity to ask the board about their relationship with oldschoolview and/or whether they were spotted having a pint after the meeting ? .
'' nothing material we shareholders were not aware of before or hasn’t already been suggested or implied in previous podcasts or RNS''
Indeed Howzap... not least as there would be an obligation to RNS it ahead of the AGM, if anything new and s/p material was to be talked about at that AGM
>>Still supporting that 30k payrise HZ??
Yes I am gixxer, he may not manage any of the projects directly but the buck stops with him to make the big decisions.
After hearing both camp attendees recollections there is absolutely nothing material we shareholders were not aware of before or hasn’t already been suggested or implied in previous podcasts or RNS.
Thank you Captainbob for your clarity.
‘If’ it’s looking as though BR will not need more drilling we can all but expect then, with copper at 10k/ton where the economics will show it to be ‘extremely profitable’, we could be looking to see IRR in region of 25% (implied by Colin) which would make the project desirable.
Ice suggested at least 20% I think. This is more important than NPV which will be interesting to see a gauge toward the value of project.
Business as usual
Good summary A4444
We were all at the same meeting, people here what they want to here. I wanted 10p plus, I know I'm not getting it. Fool me once.
Good luck the rest of you, but I'm not believing the BS anymore.
Don't worry there's some more projects in Africa to drill over the next 3 years.
Great post, Andrew4444. My experience is also that sometimes you get accounts of the meetings on message boards and you wonder, did we really attend the same meeting? There are a lot of nuances in terms of people behaviour what they say and how they say it, thanks for giving us your summary of the meeting, I feel moderately positive now. I think Manica will now provide a great base to secure the financial future of the Company and we can expect something to come out of BR. Even if it is not 10p it should be multiples of today's price. Thanks again.
''BR, disappointing, but not dead. Its going to need a higher copper price. The new study will come back mid to end sep....(Colins timeline). I think it will be profitable at 4-4.5$LB. Who knows when it will be sold, but I got the impression, Colin was mentioning 24/25 for this copper rise, for that purpose. (I'll go back and check another day).
I'm not expecting a big sale price for BR. Maybe a few pence at most. Let's wait to see the NPV.''
Given the market currently values Bushranger at zero p to minus p, the above is ok by me.
The here for Bushranger brigade(s) must already have processed that Bushranger drilling was, in the round, disappointing ..- eg they've watched the s/p get totally obliterated from 7 odd p ...but they picked a multi trick pony for a reason .. and fortunately Manica is likely now worth somewhere in the 2p to 5p a share range.
As a founder member of that here for Manica brigade, I think much wider respect for this fine asset is now clearly merited.
I hardly ever post on here anymore as the signal to noise ratio is now not great :) But just seen some of the negative feed back from the AGM
All I can say is that my interpretation of what I heard was nothing like what has been said by some.. This is my interpretation but I guess people could see, or hear, things differently:.
1. No need for a raise unless we move for other assets and that was not in any way certain or soon. A "matter of fact "comment. I didn't get the impression we would raise to do more drilling / exploration. as FB income should cover that.
2. circa 4 years of FB income is most likely but to be over cautious 2 years min was stated. Substantial FB income expected.. My understanding is that we will modify the plant to take sulphides starting next year and do so from FB income. IMHO (Not from AGM) FB will be producing income for a number of years from Oxides then sulphides. It will be a real cash generator IMHO
3. The phrase "disappointing" was used re Bushranger but in the context that it hasnt delivered value sooner. Not that it wont deliver value later say 1 to 2 years time. For once, CB was being honest and not BS
4. End September should be when economic study ready.
IMHO there were no surprises at the AGM and nothing has changed.
I too am very surprised at the big sales just before the close..
It could be that one person (Lucky maybe ??) sold out with 2 big 1m sells, then Backtothesoil got spooked and sold another 750K in batches (according to his post he sold 750K.before close) This accounts for nearly all the late sells by just 2 people.. I don't think BTTS was at the meeting so he may have been playing "follow the leader" after seeing those 2 big sells.. If he was at the meeting I doubt he would have sold.imho
My interpretation is that BR is highly likely to be sold but later than CB original time lines and for less than the "10p I'll tell them to stick it " comment. I assume that's where the "disappointing" comment was coming from but CB did not say how much it would be sold for ( less than 10p is my view). FB income / profit should be declared in an RNS in Q2 results in a few weeks..
My view now not AGM. SP should start to rise then and further on Q3 RNS results imho
As I say, no surprises at the AGM imho and nothing which should cause anyone to start big buying or selling. ALL IMHO.
Final thought, we all want CB to stop the BS and be honest and give reasonable expectations, but when he does that - he gets slaughtered !
GLA
See you again in another few months after Q3 results :) I suspect anyone who sold today may be regretting that decision by then :).