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...as another year drifts by...
Rolls through every now and again
Tumbleweed anyone
Ah, the old “rationalise the delay” posts despite trying to school me earlier in the year when I suggested hitting those targets was a thing of fantasy.
RoJo, you think Charles Santos is lying, yes ?
It looks like the jury out re timing. I'm happy to wait and see. At least the time scales are now between say 2 month 7 days and 8 months. Either way if we get first gas flowing anywhere on that time line I'd be happy and it will at least be a sign that the company then operating as a proper producer.
Atb,
Northern
Personally I'd have more faith in jollyboydrewkys view if he'd found the plot he lost a couple of years back!
RJ
I am just pointing out that ARA must have confirmed the December drill to SCIR within the last few days. At this point in time they should know if that is going to happen and SCIR’s nomad would presumably have verified it. You may be right but at this time I think ARA are in a better position to know about drilling than you.
ICB, I'm as positive as they come around here, but I wouldn't even hold RoJos hat on payment for gas delivered being received by December, but good luck with that.
That may be true Tanz, my being continually right doesn't make me popular, but of course you don't get it, any of it.
Faith ? Are you kidding ? This isn't a religion !
One other 'No' you missed off, particularly in your case RJ - No Faith. That explains why you talk our investment, down and down incessantly with the sanctimonious story of protecting future investors from losing their money ! Please don't play your usual record 'you don't get it'. Take some heart from CP's verdict from the AGM , AEX is a 'Buy'. Affter all you desperately want out at 4p, that's the way to achieve it and if you ask most of the others on this chat board, my guess is they can't wait to see the last of you !
When discussing timescales it is helpful to look at the last RNS from SCIR because the information contained in that RNS can only have come from ARA:
“ US$3 million payable upon Final Investment Decision (FID) being by the parties to the Ruvuma Asset Production Sharing Agreement or the JOA as the case may be. Given the progress made on the development to date, with first gas being targeted for December 2023, Scirocco is confident of receiving this payment later in 2023.”
The RNS makes it clear that first gas is being targeted for December 2023 and FID is imminent. ARA have confirmed this information to SCIR just days ago so they must know this is almost certain to be achieved.
Personally I think negotiations have been tough. Tanzania want the gas but for some reason they have held back agreements on the GSA to this stage. ( I think I know why but will keep to myself)
There is no way the company could or should go ahead with supplying until such agreement is in place.
It is clear that if they had gone ahead with the pipeline plan when announced in February then first gas could have come in on time by this month.
Assuming equipment availability I guess it is still physically possible to have first gas by December, however the pipeline from research could take three months plus depending on terrain, so any gas would have to be trucked out and that would probably require different well head arrangements as was hinted in an early RNS on the matter.
Personally due to the current status of the potential CH1 rig, if my thoughts turn out correct, then I think it more likely we will see that spudding in December/January.
The Sultan expects all paperwork to be completed this month so news incoming, that being the case the brakes will be off and the pipeline would likely be constructed in between the short and long rainy season, so first sod might be expected December.
One thing for sure in my mind is once it starts, it will be all go, I think ARA are shrewd enough to make sure everything is covered so the won't be pi@@ed about in the future.
GLA
Thanks for your comments Rojo,
Like you say still quite a lot to sort but will be interested to see what figures they give 're the new assessment based on the 3D Seismic - I believe the reassessment is due this year.
Atb,
Northern
No Northern, I can't believe anyone really believes gas will be produced this year.
Apologies for repeating that we have no drill rig, drill pad, pipeline or GSA.
Really think there will be has being produced by As a by the end of the year?
I was interested to see in the Scirrocco divestment that they are expecting has around December time. My own opinion based on past delays - usually on the Tanzanian side - was first gas in Q2 next yesr.
Will be interesting to know what other people think. My thought is on first gas the sp will move up higher and I am thinking of investing some.more in Aminex but.am.not sure when - most likely November this yesr.
Atb,
Northern
Aimster, By now, with the vast 3D seismic data gathered up, do you think that Ara et all have now got a good idea of what Ruvuma can offer, possible and even probable ? I've always thought you together with RoJo are one of the sceptics, but surely with the knowledge Ara possess, do you ever stop to ask yourself why Ara et at have not backed off ?
Also worth noting, is that despite increased production in Q3, revenue fell from 18 MUSD in Q2 to 13 MUSD in Q3. The most likely reason for this fall is that cost recovery pool has been used up. WEN has informed about that in their 1H report.
As a shareholder of both Went and M&P, @Blackgold, I don't think i have yet 'heard the fat lady sing'. As far as I know, the deal is still ongoing. But agreed it was on the cheap given Went's cash in the bank; exactly the reason I bought into the French company at around €3.30 if memory is correct.
What happened to M&P and Wentworth just goes to show how prudent it was for ARA to get the transfer from SCIR fully completed before the next steps which we are expecting imminently. Investors in AeX are only too aware of the problems and delays involved in getting consents historically from the Government of Tanzania. If those delays had not occurred AEX would have been pumping gas for years just like M&P/Wentworth.
"These Conditions include, inter alia, (i) consent from the Minister responsible for petroleum affairs in Tanzania under the Petroleum Act 2015 (the "Act") and any other applicable laws; (ii) the waiver of any right of first refusal or pre-emption right to which by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation is entitled in respect of the Mnazi Bay asset; and (iii) approval from the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission ("FCC"), in each case on terms satisfactory to M&P, acting reasonably."
"On 11 July 2023, Wentworth was notified that the FCC has issued a decision notice that application for FCC approval shall not be determined at this time and that this application will be marked closed by the FCC."
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WEN/update-on-offer-from-maurel-prom-ltet2neczcjnxc4.html
before saying anything else i have to state that i have never been a very close follower of wen or m&p so cannot comment at all on their position with any conviction. however here goes! i am given to believe that the reason for the failure of the m&p offer for wen was that m&p really ****ed the tpdc off with the terms of the offer. under the wen gsa the tpdc has always had "back-in" rights over the mtwara license but the m&p offer would have superseded these rights, effectively denying the tpdc from any future interest in the proceeds. so the tanzanian authorities effectively said "up yours" !!
The long stop date is 31st of December 2023, if I am not mistaken.
CHAR valued at £160m. AEX should be 4p on that valuation.