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No volume at the downtrend line shows no desire to break through just yet. Downtrend meets long term uptrend in the next 2 -3 weeks so a move up through the downtrend or down trough the long term uptrend isn't far away or it could just go sideways through it, need to monitor volume and price action to that point, anyones guess right now. Could obviously happen before then too, RNS might drop tomorrow for all we know. Double bottom is confirmed with a close above 105/106p made on 7/9/21, needs volume to confirm the move, not looking likely with todays retreat from the downtrend line on very little volume. For me, I just think a quick dip below 80p could happen, market always likes to shake out any weak holders before a move up and that would shake out a few, fear is arguably more powerful than greed I read somewhere once and kind of agree. I'll set a buy order at 76/77p, wouldn't get in much lower because of the spread but I wouldn't be surprised if 72p was hit intraday. All in my relatively humble opinion, time will tell if any of it plays out of course.
Well, that’s a poor close to Sept – and true to character for SLP.
As SLP “always” under-performs in Sept after the results are announced.
(Sept is a Buy On the Rumour: Sell On the News month - always has been).
So, at least that’s unaffected by the chip/Rh crisis.
Except I was expecting more like mid 96-ish close to the month, which was bad enough - so this 91 close to the end of Sept, puts paid to any expectation of a sooner rather than later recovery in the SP. In fact not expecting much better for Oct either. (Although I fully expect Nov to lift spirits a little).
not sure why the strong/very strong dollar is not mentioned in regard to rhodium / all commods prices, its not just the chip shortage
Also, cash in bank in Jun 2021 was $106million, 3 months later in September that would have increased to $126million. BY March 2022, cash in bank would have increased to $166 million(not discounting divdend payments). By then, the goose that lays many golden eggs would only be valued at the price of only 1.5 times the valuation of single golden egg($20 million per quarter) , which is absurd.
Chart wise, the double bottom formation has ended the lower lows of a falling down trend. We are within touching distance of a upper channel down trend. Given the increasing fundamentals here, we shoud be breaking through that resistance any day now. Don't worry about small profits, take profits at 100 percent or higher, in 3 to six months.
Todays Rho price was the same as approx this time last year giving revenues of $42 million per quarter, or $20 million net income per quarter. If todays RHo price stays the same, that is the expected quartely income, $80 million annual profit. However, assuming chip shortage peaked in september 2021, than Rho prices should be going up from next month, as it has already. In that case, $80 million per year net income would be the minimum figure, or the projected $120 million per year if RHO prices rise as is expected.
So even at current prices, SLP is hugely profitable.
Agreed Caution.
Round of applause.
Good to see management and employees sharing in this. They deserve it.
Thanks, SLP team.
from IC article dated 6 sept 2021,
"However, Liberum Capital’s technology team believe that the chip shortage will peak this month and then ease for the rest of the year, a positive for Sylvania’s average basket price which has been dragged down by a third since May. Importantly, markets for both palladium and rhodium are still forecast to be in deficit this year. Furthermore, the group remains hugely profitably at current spot metal prices as Sylvania’s average basket price is more than four times higher than group cash costs of $755 per oz. Based on flat production of 70,000 PGM ounces, cash profits north of US$120m (£87m) should be easily achievable in the new financial year."
Down almost 6% last 2 days, thus the drop, I guess. How does our current basket price compare with last year average and what would this mean for FY profits, if the status quo was maintained, just for interest?
Or the alternative view is things should start improving on the chip front from Q4 as some analysts predict, positivley affecting PGM prices and thus the heavily discounted SP.
Cheers for your buy back target.
Got 8.5% out of that, took a while, smack on the downtrend line again today but looking a little better. Revisit to 83p area likely, would obviously need to hold or 70's possible.
I learnt from past mistakes and now always carry a little extra cash just in case:) Carpe diem!
We finished strongly today and within touching distance of penetrating the falling line of resistance. With a decent thrust the tight resistance should fall and we should be well out of the bottoms, and ready to enter a new phase of price action.
All I can say incredible opportunities here, who needs a gold mine ....when the future has a silver lining ... full body all over
Nice easy to read summary showing that no 'Company is an Island' I'll go with the last paragraph because cars are still being ordered and for a lot of models there's up to a 6 months waiting list. 'Governments' are opening new Fabs from India/Thailand and Arizona and I believe there's a redundant Seimens factory in Newcastle, there's one in Grimsby too but that's a different kinda chip. The simple economics are people want cars and people want work, so employ more people to make semiconductors. To Governments is like the race to the moon only this time SLP will get the Buzz. read on from Business Maverick ''
“Rhodium accounted for 53% of total PGM exports in the second quarter of 2021, which was mainly destined for the US and the United Kingdom (UK),” Sarb said.
This is pretty astonishing when one considers that rhodium accounts for only about 7% of PGM production in South Africa.
Rhodium is a key ingredient in the emissions-capping catalysts used for petrol engines, and earlier this year available supplies were woefully short to meet demand that was going through the roof as the auto sector geared up for the global economic rebound from the pandemic-triggered meltdown in 2020.
Rhodium’s price in late March reached almost $30,000 an ounce, a record high which made it probably the most valuable precious metal in history. Four years before, it had been fetching less than $1,000 an ounce, according to data compiled by Johnson Matthey, a catalyst maker.
This is why, despite only comprising about 7% of the PGMs mined here in terms of production ounces, rhodium accounted for 53% of PGM exports in Q2. It certainly has been punching above its weight, and its price has played a significant role in the record surplus on the current account of balance of payments and trade surpluses that South Africa posted in the quarter.
This also explains why the rand was punching above its weight until its recent downturn.
But rhodium’s rave is now fading into a more subdued kind of party.
Its price is now around $14,500 an ounce, a little less than half of its record peaks. This is because of a short-circuit in global supply chains, which has resulted in a shortage of the semiconductor chips used in auto production. Less car-making means less demand for rhodium and other PGMs.
Once those supply problems get rectified, demand may well roar back, and rhodium will be in the spotlights of the rave once again. ''
Had 3 good days on the trot - hopefully a 'happy ending' ...to the week...
Let's see past this BS SP by close of business tomorrow please. She want's 95p BADLY. Not the masseur that is... haha
Yeah I had the options of a fluffy finish but was sh ! t out of cash :)
I'm booking a full body massage for tomorrow -- albeit a regular type.....
£1.40 December 31st, 2021
£2+ December 31st, 2022
Marineclark, I had a great full body massage lastnight :)
I also did some deep crate digging into the chinese dark web lastnight and unearthed some startling news regarding new electric vehicle manufacturers!! Absolutely startling!
They key takeaway was nothing short of mindblowing :)
The propaganda we're given does not tell the true story. The fact remains that regardless of chinese government support for the EV manufactures. Did you know that over 300 'lesser known' EV manufacturers and production houses have gone bust over the last 3 years? While demand and output (sales) of EVs is till only forecast to be 'up to' 10% of total sales by 2030, the demand for PGMs is only set to surge to highs we haven't even tipped the scale of as yet.
Buckle up and enjoy the f88king ride :)
Happy with any upward trend :)
Stoodio, I will be enjoying the fruits of my labour(putting my feet up) in three-six months just like all holders here who bought at these prices. The great thing about this share is that it mirrors the prices of PGM, which is easily checked, so it is easy to work out future earnings as the ounces sold is fixed at 70,000 ounces annually. Chart wise, still some a bit more work to do to break out of the down trend, but given a enterprise valuation of peanuts, i.e 2 times net profit, and in six months 1.6 times net profit if prices stays the same, I can confidently call this the bottom. I'll will be treating myself to a massage in six months, when the price doubles from here.
Velo, i sometimes get the feeling that nobody sees SLP the way I do. Patterns. Operations. Newsflow. Then I ground myself and inform myself that I'm no better than the man next door.
Watch this (like you won't be!) October and November. DOMS.
:)
" A paltry £1.20+ to start within the next couple weeks will do. "
-----------------
Yes :)
Pulls on party-time bald-head cap and commands: Make it so Stoodio!