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Can Mercuria still pull the plug? I don't know but would be very happy if they did.
If they sign the deal off with the SP at 200p -220p it would imply to me what a great deal they negotiated for themselves.
I liquidated all risk in my portfolio on Monday morning after toying with the idea the previous Friday.
Banking sector jitters, energy prices getting back to pre-pandemic levels but now subject to a 'windfall tax: and, in my opinion, a questionable value placed on the Tailwind assets.
I'm sitting this out until after the transaction and dilution.
since the deal was announced, the reduced value for Tailwind might possibly jeopardise it?
"It's an ill wind, etc., " - you never know... - sasa.
GL
Mercuria have quasi control at 25% , the other 2.89% is not in their name as such.
Buying 10% of the equity back at this level would make sense . If it leaves Merc with 27 .5 % what difference does it make ? They have control either way so I don't see a contradiction .
seen the Hurricane takeover - that's the way to do it!
This bb was all complaining about Mercuria’s high ownership percentage, so the obvious progression of the bb is now to clamour for that to be increased via buybacks, lol!
Glaglth
Absolutely love this bb :D
Well, no reason now for these not to start on first opportunity, unless Mercuira says 'NO' that is !
Thanks Norma.
I'm absolutely no fan at all but does bring Boris,s parting quote to mind. " When the herd moves it moves" !! And as you say equally applicable to a run on a bank as the removal of a PM
Liquidity is fine, but the whole banking sector relies on a non-tangible measure, which is ‘trust’. There are suspicions rolling around about bank balance sheets due to withdrawal rates versus bond holdings that have fallen sharply. All you need is talk and chatter over a bank’s ability to meet withdrawals and the run can start. Once it does, it’s very difficult to halt. It’s usually only a big policy response that stops it.
Thanks, NoQuestionMarks for the Bank details
"Swiss National Bank says it will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity if necessary.."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/swiss-national-bank-says-it-will-provide-credit-suisse-with-liquidity-if-necessary.html
From cnbc
"Several bank stocks, including Credit Suisse, were temporarily halted from trade during the morning due to the steep losses. Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Commerzbank and UBS declined to comment."
To be fair it was a blood bath everywhere today. Brent has crashed and NG well down again. It's only a paper loss. Let's just hope the bounce back is as quick and Mitch delivers some good news sooner.
Hello Banbury,
Not sure. If you track SQZ against HBR, very similar plots over 12 months. Hence not sure it is TW-specific. Showing our biases here. Let’s await actual newsflow and we’ll know soon enough.
Risk is rolling over everywhere and being indiscriminately offloaded. Hence I selectively buy it on days like this. Pricing becomes irrational but there’s no capitulation yet. That may well come. It’ll be interesting to see if US policy moves are made in the next few days. They normally cannot help themselves at times like this.
(Look at GBP v USD and then USD vs JPY to name but one simple and obvious risk-off signal.)
Hi Norma
Even I can't speculate how much of the crash is market related and how much is due to what many beleive is a bad deal.
What I think is unrefutable is the current SP on the old company represents pure cash and should be the floor.
I fear lack of news relates to problems at Tailwind and MF wants the deal over the line before he discloses.
Just a gut feeling but watch this space.
When we drop below £2.10 which is cash there can only be one conclusion terrible deal for shareholders and a perminant material dimunation in the value of the Tailwind assets compared to what we SQZ shareholders are paying.
Mitch if you are reading not to late to pull the plug and do you really want to face the what you knew and when when Tailwind doesn't deliver ?
Hope I'm wrong but nothing here feels right.
As noted on 22 Feb: “IMHO, risk will further sell off in the short term so will accrue more into/through a possible sell-off. Once this market down leg is done, I suspect we have grounds for a sustained upturn in equities and risk appetite.”
One never knows where the risk will manifest, but the damn always bursts somewhere. Multiple assets sell off and the market struggles for rational price discovery. There are signs of that unfolding right now. How many times have we seen this play out? I continue to systematically add risk back in, bit by bit. This is not a boast post, just an encouragement to those that are sick of a red screen and indiscriminate price destruction. That’s PRICE not value destruction. SQZ has been added together with I3E, EM corporate debt and HY bonds. The gold coins purchased in 2020 are also shining again.
Have faith, we know that this ends even if the how and the when are not clear at this moment.
Best wishes to all.
If I made two dumb mistakes not selling during the high of last summer, I made another not selling as soon as the two events happened in December -i) the share price dropped ii) the nature of the deal became apparent. Days where the share price bobbed around 270p now seem relatively halcyon and 320p at the beginning of December - unreal.
Mitch must be cursing that flock of black swans and irrationality of the markets.
Fair enough works for me, I find your posts anhedonic and hysterical fwiw
Glaglth
Dubhlinn, Yes, sorry, should have been in quotes as it was extract from MSN news ..... no other detail on other banks in that article that i recall. I'm afraid can't find the original article to post link, sorry. atb
As for GL, for as long as I can remember you add zero ( usually less than tbh ) to this BB and I have to-date given your posts the respect they demand, so you would be glad to know, forthwith you are now filtered.
NewKOTB,
On your post today at 11.32 you stated theat trading had been halted in a number of European Banks.
Would you please name the particular Banks.
See, told you it was MF’s fault, so is HBR
BP has fallen from recent 4 year high down ~6% today, whereas SQZ has fall to 18 month low today from ATH only 7 months ago.
BP’s drop is MF’s fault, just wanted to get that in there before anyone else
Just wish we didn’t have cash or debt held with financial institutions like all the other companies on the planet :(
I agree, MF is to blame for having too much cash and too little cash concurrently, he simply has to go. Everyone knows too little cash and too much cash is the only way to prudently run a business.
Tailwind should have taken out the debt from a household goods manufacturer, what the hell were they thinking getting a financial product from a bank?! Boils my blood ngl. Personally my bank account is with the local chippy. MF has to go.