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If the BOD do not sell this outright or in part during this process, to protect the s/p from dumping they'd better be crystal clear with the market on the value of the 'good' offer(s) they received, that were, in their mind, not good enough. And exactly why.
I say this as the current known offer is approx where the s/p still sits and this against a backdrop of fine assets and a fine balance sheet and known other interest from significant players and the BOD explicitly telling us not to sell at the current market price: Altogether, that this s/p sits at - only - 17/18pish currently underlines one more time to me that this is a brutal market place and in the context that it could easily remain a brutal market place for a long time to come - new brutal paradigm for approx. 2 years already and global marco storm clouds now perhaps approaching too etc- I think the BOD will 'let this go' for - even considerably - less than 40+p.
35p would be a very good outright sale result imho, 30p a good result and 25p-30p an acceptable one and even 23p to 25p a bad deal that they feel they should still go for, 'all things considered' (eg and if a bunch of shares in the purchaser with clear upside potential are included as part of the transaction)
Towards finishing on a 'positive', given the BOD are seemingly good at deal making I feel this will be sold outright for at least 26p and maybe/hopefully 30p or a bit north of that.
I feel confident that the current price decline from 19p has no reflection on leaked news. The MM are taking the opportunity to test shareholder resolve, dropping suddenly with auto trades to create fear, then raising the price a little to allow nervous shareholders an opportunity to exit at a price above the low of the day. Its working and its a cumulative cycle, just wonder if they take the plunge and take us below the 17p to test. Its possible that large buy orders are at the 17p price point.
looking at disclosures im trying to timeline when we are likely see some action from the various potential bidders - and whether we are looking at different offers - whereby some offer for parts and others for the sum total. i guess in a perfect storm we would get both, which should create some sort of a bidding war. i'd be interested to hear from a few on this board on this issue.
i am also a little perplexed at how quiet it has become here... i have undoubtedly become increasingly sceptical and bearish in recent months, and what seems like an obvious money marking opportunity makes me even more nervous to push more chips into the middle...despite this overriding feeling of opportunity - i still feel something aint quite right
ive said along it should be 40-46p for a realistic offer, which would be acceptable to the BOD, I cant see them letting this go for much less, after all these years of holding , its a good business with plenty of upside ,imo why let it go cheaply ???
GLA LTH Patience is key,
As per usual listen to negative Ross or realise this is what we are playing for.
As per ColonelDrake:-(+edits from me)
Rough Calcs
1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative)
2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m
3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m
4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below)
5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)
Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m)
Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m)
Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised)
Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)
I also posted :-
Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.
Regarding the Oxy valuation.
The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-
Our 50% should read $93m + $19m = $112m+(5%Control est) + (5%highest bid est) = $124m
+The Credit for the bit we sold $93m + $19m = $112m less cash recieved $19m = $93m Oxy Credit.
Therefore the total is more likely $124m + $93m = $217m (less any 50% of any OXY spends incurred (no idea if they done much yet)).
That total includes nothing but the OXY involved land.
What most of us are waiting for is probably something to back up the implicit confidence of “Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the FSP.”
This BoD has a patchy record so it would be helpful if they could back that implicit confidence up in some way, shape or form. We have no idea what will be left on the table if M & P decide to walk away from the FSP, for example, and the market reflects this. The worry is that the BoD may believe their own publicity and that it could be a case of “stick with us for a couple more years”. The market is certainly suggesting that some of the uber-bullish price targets bandied about on here are right old nonsense.
Most oiler LTHs think that their oiler’s assets are the Crown Jewels, but some of us are more realistic. If M & P decide to up the ante with an all cash offer of 24p, I will bite their hand off. At the shoulder.
Good set of q2 results
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4286944-geopark-q2-2019-financial-results-reviewed?ifp=0
Think they might want a bite of us
Thanks appreciate your take
Ive been involved with the sale of a service company but never on this scale and obviously im on the outside now so keen to hear folks opinions
cheers
Aurora
This process is because we lost control - End , the BOD, after RH and so on. ONGC filled the void with negative speils RH Left and smashing the SP AMER BOD did with deliberate operational failures - End Game - Easy Win for ONGC - who Know their game plan. CPO5 + 50m reserves 8kbopd with $50m Capex , Within 2 years 1bn Reserves 50kbopd plus 10 times the value to get rid of when ONGC have NO CASH HNY End, BOD need a cool head, but IMO this is getting played by Coller thank God. HNY It will end well IMO the Threat of a Private Equity bid - will cover a void - a Col Back stop.
ONGC IMO have got caught wrong footed, off shore, never realised CPO 5 Value - until JW, problem probably an 19 mth Capex Re-direction run, re- think buy time FExk Amer - Time undo boys HNY - This whole Bid process is about getting free of ONGC End Game !!! Private Equity options - give this the steel it needs HNY GLA
Hi BaysilH
what are your thoughts on how it will all pan out
cheers
Aurora
Thank God the BOD did execute the Bid process . What this process has done - is re-evaluate the strategic Value of Amer assets gloves off - a naked review. If you do that kind of exposure you have to have plan B, C & D +, your Balls are under water otherwise. Back Step, Amer have survived a hammering, ONGC need to cut a deal, - early in the process of a Mega Field - the pressure is on ONGC. How do you keep a lid on a Land mark discovery!! ONGC are scum and tomb robbers IMO DYOR - an honest E & P would have 5 rigs on the case NOW front up share the profit and so on - Monkees - as they have had 2 years to get the infra in place = delays & lack of info - they want our 30% Real Cheap HNY gLA GN Amer Sp will fly get rid of ONGC HNY GLA
Come on JTD, just believe enough and it will be fine! Tant spent all of Monday believing and the share price went up. Yesterday he had to tidy his room so could not devote all day believing and the SP went down. Today after his trip to the park he will doubly believe! If we all took that positive attitude we would be selling this for over a pound!
I am sure that soon we will be having leaks from the government telling us why it will be so good, can't understand why the Brexiters haven't released any of those yet, sure there will be some soon.
Thank you Colonel.
Hi All,
Its been mentioned that some trades are completed, and appear the next day, after close of play etc. Also are the IL's trades displayed?. My question really is, I suppose, are all trades displayed on the 'share trades' tab, on this site, or are we not privy to some, at all or for a delayed period? Is the information current and comprehensive?
Thanks in advance.
Tant - Thank you so much for putting me straight with your exceptionally well reasoned argument. Now I see how ridiculous it is to be making any provision for potential risks. You've convinced me the current pro Brexit government are lying when they say there could be problems and they are making frantic preparations for absolutely no reason, snowflakes.
I'll stop paying attention immediately, thanks mate; incidentally in case the rose coloured specs you've just provided me with are not strong enough to protect my capital, where did you get your sand from, it seems to have done a great job of protecting your head so I might invest in some - washed river sand I hope then it doesn't leave a nasty stain when the shrivelled head is extracted.
Oh, and you better let that other snowflake know about your findings, what's his name, Richard Bran something or other who thinks his businesses will be severely effected to the tune of over £100m a year - he clearly hasn't done his homework, a complete loser.
I see clearly now though my rosy coloured specs, it's a miracle, and those that think we should make preparation to avert painful shocks including- Boris Johnson and his entire cabinet, every other MP, BofE Governor, Nigel Farage, CBI, Unions etc - all deluded as there's absolutely no chance of any impact - thanks mate.
Most of the "big cheeses" with whom we might be dealing are probably in Bogota sipping guaros (or something a little stronger) and enjoying the altiplano.
Given the opportunities in Colombia, by comparison, St. Tropez would seem quite dull. It generally seems quite hard to winkle JW out of Colombia, to make a trip back to the UK.
I suspect that the “big cheeses” who sit on the boards or credit committees or investment committees of potential buyers may be currently in St Tropez. Perhaps more may happen once they’re back and have packed Torquil and Jocasta back off to boarding school. Agree, Mr Big....hold...
Going by past performance of this BOD I am not as excited as I was after the offer. Quite perturbed at the lack of any news whatsoever , has the company downed tools? Silly me topped up at 19.2 so peeved at that one too. I hope they spring a surprise but at the moment I can't see a blockbuster offer in the making. 25 may be it. Hope it's higher but gut feeling says this isn't going to go as high as we'd like. Still , i'd be happy with a sale @ 25 cash just to be done with the BOD. Oil investments are off the table for me after this one . Fingers crossed it sells.
A reminder please on the date this was said, as I remember it, the question is whether or not they can be trusted to deliver.
Mr Blast - perhaps some holders have been lured into cashing out some AMER to day play elsewhere and return. but, as the saying goes, when the tide turns we'll know who isn't wearing swimmers.
In terms of lack of buying pressure. My observation is PIs get giddy on company RNS day (not the holding ones). As the BB has done to death, the lack of another proposed or actual offer means folk don't know up to what amkes buying more a deal. But on that point, I return to the BOD statements of "strong advice" not to sell.
Your baseless project fear rant has no place here. Run off and find a snowflake bulletin board and don't waste our time.
I was just thinking the same, Mr big.
I generally think of myself as a reasonably “sophisticated” investor, to use the old FCA terminology. However, I have to revisit this assumption as I simply cannot understand why there hasn’t been buying pressure to force the price upwards, even if only from PIs. AMER seems like a call option trading on zero (or perhaps even negative) premium. I really don’t get it.
(There again, Bunds trade at minus 70 bps, so apparently everyone’s drinking the koolaid...)
i really cannot believe the deal at which you can still scoop up these puppies.
Added another batch at 17.3p ish.
willec - you've sort of answered your own question.
Lower than what? No one has said anything about a lower offer as I recall.
I have no idea what the outcome will be, I just know it will be very good or it will be rejected - the thing about an offer is that we can reject it. Personally, I'm hoping we get a maverick bidder who chances a bet on going straight to shareholders at some stage - a disorderly process will bring out the best price after everyone's appetite has been wetted.