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What's the highest 'fair value' SP valuation, from any source, that you've ever seen for SLP and thought that's far too outlandish (or too low) ?
Just had an email from Simply Wall Street, with their latest analysis update on SLP.
I've been used to their valuation as showing the SP (as all analysts by common consensus do) as well undervalued
- and they have for the past year valued the SP at £4-odd it. But not tonight.
They're now valuing it, as of tonight, as fair value being at -
£6.56 !
Any takers for ever seeing higher? :)
The forward P/E ratio I'm seing for SLP is P/E3.4
The industry average for SLP is a lowly median average of P/E 9.8 (It has been P/E 10 all last year).
So, personally, I say to myself: just to be considered plain "average" as a stock then bringing SLP up to the industry average would equate to an SP of £3.11
ie., ( 3.4/9.8 x £1.08 )
THS is undervalued too. And as far as you can look, most hot stocks in SLP's industry appear undervalued too.
Suspecting an error, earlier this year I looked further up the M/Cap to the likes of Rio Tinto, and whilst, yes RIO was on a higher P/E multiple than I'd seen elsewhere, RIO was still a little undervalued in P/E terms. So started examining US stocks, and only then do you see much higher P/E's in general, within the industry.
Conclusion? I don't think SLP or THS will ever reach parity with a "fair" valuation as the market demands that margin of safety as witnessed by the shock fall all these stocks suffered in the summer.
Yes, SLP's SP has risen nicely, annually since 2016/17 and ever since - up to this summer, but seeing SLP lifted to an industry average P/E ratio is unlikely IMO.
Still doesn't prevent the SP from rising pleasingly annually, but I doubt these types of commodity stocks will ever be treated to a "fair" valuation.
Simply Wall Street use a discounted cashflow methodolgy to come up with £6-odd, but several posters who've posted on here can only manage up to £1.40 using DCF methodologies.
Any takers on seeing higher than £6 ? Is that the new record valuation?
Profits profit but looking forward to enjoying a larger profit next month. And 4p dividend to enjoy.
2022 Going to be fun
" Those months Velo was no fool with, July and August, just decided to take on the mantle of October / November. Thats it thats all. "
----------------
Must admit Stoodio, July & August cannon-balled my cyclical seasonality charts into shipwreck status on the admiralty maps held at HQ :)
That damage may have fecked-up the cyclical probabilities for 12 months forward in SLP now, as running tests against other stocks with "typical/characteristic behaviours" and all is well.
Oct (if it holds as is to the month end) is performing far greater currently than the old original cyclical plans I posted of earlier in the year (having said that, the first half, Jan to June worked perfectly; too perfectly :)
Nov is an old out-performer still on the cards for doing that this year; if it's repaired itself by then. Or if I can ever trust the cyclicals again.
Jan & Feb are the other half of the heart and soul of the SP driving the SP forward for 5 years. So will remain optimistic for Jan next year, and Feb too
(Had Jan down for the 200p target attainment originally).
But the greatest crime I committed during July & August was moving away from my roots (trend following) because SLP had-been-oh-oh- oh-SOoooo-predictable that I didn't look at what price was actually doing, and when too late, I almost cried when I saw the more, longer term predominant trends had already turned 100% bearish whilst I was still yapping on about a blow your socks off August
- because that is what it's always done - for 5 years!
Have had a big catharsis navel-gazing examination of my strategies from scratch since then - and the result is - the trends never failed me at all - not once!
I just ignored them. I failed them!
If I take the knee will they forgive (sniff) and take me back?
I failed myself by ignoring them whilst playing with new TA toys. I don't need to change anything strategy-wise - only my personal discipline to my core principles when examining, interesting new strategy options.
Mr Ramper (me apparently? :)
Back on 27th September:
- - - - - - - - - - - -
RE: Oversold
27 Sep 2021 09:11
Said it last week, watch out for the gym equivalent of the DOMS here.
Delayed Onset Muscle Soreness.
Those months Velo was no fool with, July and August, just decided to take on the mantle of October / November. Thats it thats all.
:)
- - - - - - - - - - - -
I'd call a 21% increase since my post above vindication.
Velo, ahem.
I mean, you can tell 'em I said it :)
108p finish, GLA
SLP what a share your are ...maybe 2 Greggs cheese and onion for the weekend!
Seriously - can the SP make it 7 blue consecutive days straight out the box tomorrow?
And if so, will that be some new kind of record for SLP, or at the very least equal a prior run of that length somewhere in the last 5 year bull run?
" . . . looking forward to Oct 28th and paying that dividend in . . . "
------------------------
So am I, Odys'07 - (4p cash per share :)
- However for the sake of clarity, you won't receive the divi in your account until the 3rd Dec, as the 28th Oct is the XD date only.
And if November turns out as I'm optimistically looking for (not to mention Stoodio's looking for also, in Nov :) then it will be all the more remarkable as the entire month of Nov will be in XD period and therefore under a manufactured 'cosh' until the divi is actually paid out.
Historically inter-month, October can be volatile, in both directions, so not counting my chickens yet, until Nov 1st ;)
- but even so, 6 consecutive blue days of straight-out gains on the trot, makes you wonder how much longer the SP can hold out before a red day sticks it tongue out, at one and all.
+7.5% ?
That'll do... and we only just getting started here... :)
special div because high pgms, huge cash, and expected high profits from highish pgms
Really Loggy? Why would they do a second? I have known about this shar for a while, so just happy to have this opp to get in under a £1 after £1.50 in Summer. Thank goodness for collapse in PGM! ;).... looking forward to Oct 28th and paying that dividend in to buy more stock .... This board also feels a good vibe unlike some others
rh back to 14k
just listened to tharisa guy phoevus and he is very bullish on pgms (not surprising), having spoken to car manufactures, as he says.....
all my big 3 firing well, though all still ridiculously undervalued
slp still bit behind my 20p finger in the air differential with tharisa
rhodium is a bit behind the curve with the recent dollar weaking, i fully expect over 14k very soon, 15k would really get things moving here
has risen back strongly above the 90 day moving average.
Odysseus, there is also the possibility of another special divi - not guaranteed but it could boost that 4-5% even more.
I bought at the bottom(double bottom), and will be selling when there is techincal evidence of a top, which is nowhere near. In fact, if price holds on close, we have a breakout, a time to buy not sell as breakout momentum will push this higher. Let your profits. I know some find this hard, because "profit is profit" means selling at as soon as one comes into profit. This share isnt a high risk oil and gas share with price rallies and drops the next day. Its a high quality growth share. I expect next major resistance is 150p as it is the highest price, and when that breaks, its 200p, 250p from there.
im really pleased i managed to get in at a fairly substantial level at 97p. Holding for the next 5-10 years and with a dividend of 4-5%. This is a great stock
The price here often seems to get bid up shortly before the quarterlies drop. Perhaps I’m imagining this, but I don’t think so.
Q1s in a couple of weeks from now. I see no reason why they shouldn’t underpin today’s price. I imagine there may be cautionary comments on unit cost and covid, but that’s already known.
Hasn't stopped rising since 88p - was waiting for 80p and it didnt happen. Well done holders
Bet some are wishing they top sliced today rather than yesterday. Not against taking profit at all but unexpected big rises are annoying for most of us when we sell.
I’m more annoyed I bought something else in the 80p region rather than top up.
I can feel another Greggs cheese and onion coimg :)
Pat on the back for me. Thanks all. much appreciated.
Haha :)
Agree marineclark, not many stocks like SLP around. Good to be in here and look forward to the ride :)
You wont need that sword after all Stoodio. 2 pounds is still undervalued Stocky. Best ride Im having in ages, and its been a while:)