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Wrong again Godders.
The IIs knew it wasn't going to drop from the moment the warrants were issued. That's why they've kept their money in their bank account earning 5 %
And during the same time, you've been bleating that the share price has been plummeting
Mogger
Ha, for once godders has it right. They do indeed know something which, for whatever reason, you'd prefer not to know, which is that in their view this share looks great. You'd only exercise if you had a negative view of the shares, when you'd exercise and sell. Hugely encouraging that at this already late stage none have visibly done so.
@Godders maybe for the simple reason is that institutions / large holders don’t’ INVEST they simply calculate the odds. Agree it could be considered positive they are holding off to the last minute but I feel fairly certain that IF they do, then there would be NO question of operational risk of missing the warrant deadline. Yet another anomaly in the way PIs are treated as opposed to Institutions. They are only interested in profit.
@r1234 … sounds sensible I agree but why haven’t the big holders done it already … why risk the SP falling ?
Or do they know something we don’t ?
If you exercise them (9p) and then sell straight away (12p) you are making at least 33%. Where else will you get an almost risk free 33% (and help the company finances)?
Halifax exercised mine a couple of weeks ago without any issues. I can't see why people wouldn't exercise their warrants and I expect most people will keep them. After so many years of pain, who cares about waiting a bit longer !.
@Citizen thank you for agreeing I’m not one of the flock. Dratted spell check get my goat as well.
Hope you’re right on the warrants but can’t see it.
Absolutely, drafted spell check!!
Absurdly Superitch. Conventionally no II warrants will be exercised until the last possible day when, as it looks, they would of course all be exercised. Been stated several times here and Latics is the only person who poses as though they don't get it. But then he's off on his own trip.
I have a small number of warrants to exercise (c20k) and I suspect like most I am leaving it late, I was always going to exercise them because I see RKH as a medium term bet (from now! It’s been a long term play overall!)
There was no benefit if I did it in July or December and I suspect we will see the vast majority exercised in the next six weeks or so
Made easy with Hargreaves. Sent a message asking to exercise my 54,500 9p warrants about an hour ago and had this reply already.
''Re: Warrants - 04 Oct 2023
Thanks for getting in touch.
As requested I have instructed for all of your Rockhopper Exploration plc warrants to be exercised.'
We all have until the end of the year to exercise them but I've waited long enough.
Timing is uncertain but I give a 85 to 90% plus chance of SL being FIDed.
Similar % that ROI's desperate annulment claim will be rejected. Either events will mean Rocks SP will significantly rise. Both happening and we should be multiples of todays price.
Chances of neither happening is possible, however I feel a less than 10% chance.
Last month 1.5m warrants to the value of £140,000 were exercised.
I expect that will be in the 10's of millions of warrants in the next 2 months.
'distressed share'?!
No way. A quick look at Navitaspet shares over the past three months shows strong progress in spite of a small dip on
Oct 7.
Has this positive sentiment been caused by something elsewhere within Navitas operations? I don't think so. On the other hand, if the current ME war leads to Turkey cutting off Israel's energy pipeline RKH will become even more important. Not wishing to take advantage of Israel's misfortune here.
I agree with all of that.
@CitizenTS - Good question: ‘Why isn’t it 2p ?”
Many are hoping it’s the warrants that are creating a base price for the SP, myself included.
We will find our more in Jan. Personally, I’m not holding my breath but we don’t see a great of evidence that the market in particular is particularly interested in thus distressed share. Even the rate of taking up warrants is poor. Having said that, do we see any signs of large institutions selling off RKH … not sure we do.
My thoughts turn to WHY the RKH BoD hasn’t made any sort of publicity / marketing campaign recently for Sealion ?
One possibility is that they are confident of progress before a capital raise is required or it may just be that they don’t realise ? Deliberate or careless, it’s hard to stomach either.
The new Directors ‘may’ add new thoughts but somehow with the current CEO, I doubt it.
On the opposite side, why did MacDonald leave his share options on the table ? It’s a valid question.
Lots of questions on both sides and the current Middle East conflict may well impact plans one way or the other as the World takes sides.
We sit and wait.
If there was an ounce of sense in decidedOverleveraged posts and those of his followers on here the share price would be completely smashhed adrift of the warrant exercise price. We'd be looking at 2p or whatever - like the BOR price. And him and his mates swamp the posts on this bb so no help from there for the share price either. Can't know how it'll all end up but for sure these guys exist in a bubble of their own making.
Godders, why does any share go up and down? It will be down until the markets price is otherwise, no amount of moaning, berating the board, Navitas, complaining about the weather will change that. Once FID is announced or postponed, or we win or loose the OM award; the FPSO is booked or Finance is secured, then the share price will react accordingly, but not until then, for now we are in limbo. Nobody is selling in case they miss out, nobody is buying; they are keeping their powder dry until there is a definite move one way or another. When it comes it will be swift IMHO, and we will get re-rated in blink either up or down, but that is why many people hold on to this stock, it's an all or nothing play, although more recently underpinned by 250m+ OM award sitting in the wings.
So I would politely suggest you just sell up and be done with it, wasting your time on here is not good for your health or sanity. Why not leave us to it, smug in the knowledge that you walked away, left the sinking ship that you believe is heading down to nestle next to the Titanic! You are not going to change anyone mind about holding, selling or buying, you are wasting your breath.
I wish you well, and hope you can find some other investments to put your hard earned into.
Kind regards
LTT
Answer 1: people like you keep talking the price down
Answer 2: the SP will stay around 50% over the warrant exercise price until they expire at year end
Answer 3: with WW3 potentially around the corner, no-one wants AIM shares in any volume
Answer 4: awaiting outcome of ICSID annulment process
Answer 5: awaiting outcome of Argentine elections
Is that enough for now?
Ok maybe it's not the raising of finance that is the problem. None of you answer the question: why is this stock still priced as if it's not going to happen. How do you explain the dichotomy of the share price Vs the purported timelines .
Asking whether a Jewish team knows how to raise money is like asking if an All Blacks team knows how to chant the Hakka.
If I'm wrong then please do explain why the markets are irrationally ignoring this stock. Total trades this week circa £30k which is effectively nothing. Its a dead duck no one but no one beyond the 4 perma-positive posters Ovets, Mogger and a couple of others are interested.
Between Navitas and RKH billions of dollars need to be borrowed.
the only things that explain the dire share price is the market believes extreme dilution is coming or the market doesn't believe that the debt can be raised. No amount of pathetic posting about some immaterial element of Sealion is going to change my opinion. MARK my words the board will announce FID is delayed at some point in 2024 or "we are raising more funds via equity dilution".
@Ovets / Mogger …. I could be wrong but I think Godders is suspicious that the reason BoD will not buy shares is because in their position they are more aware than most about the possibility of RKH having to raise funds shortly. I suspect Godders believes that the BoD are aware of the difficulties I raising more capital which may well make some kind of warrants an option and then not being able to service the debt before RKH even get to FID.
Anyone remember Xcite ?
Sam isn’t going to confirm or deny according to Company rules.
Yes, I was about to ask the same thing.
Godders, are you sure you understand what you're posting about?
Godders,
What debt is the board trying to "raise?"
Mogger
Mogger you've been posting links to progress for the last 5 years. Surely you have to understand why shareholders now don't believe?
I think financing is proving to be an issue. I suspect the board cant raise the debt hence why they haven't bought any more shares. Stuart didn't leave all those options on the table for no reason