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Agree with you Waif, they are being very careful to underplay the Q1 top line growth of 20% aren't they?
Be very interested to see what 20/21 forecast looks like now. Even with lockdown easing I can't see a return to normal anytime soon (and god knows what Winter is going to be like). I imagine they're having an interesting time internally at landing on some assumptions.
Slightly disappointed there aren't some updated numbers on the pension rationalisation. Good to see the admin merge is signed up though, so something else to look forward to.
top 6 brands are 58% of sales (branded sales, i assume). they should look at selling out a couple of bottom performing brands if retailers are indeed rationalizing strategy. that would boost profit margins overall much further.
Peel Hunt upgraded this morning to 90p from 80p
I guess we should also be pleased that pfd is up about 5% while the ftse is down about 100 points so far today.
I guess we should wait and see if any brokers come out with up-grades on price after todays results.
I’m in the industry. A couple of pertinent points as to why this share is still massively undervalued on top of recent posts from other members.
1. The Q1 trading +20%, has been achieved with practically no promotional spend as major retailers have cancelled promotions, in order to preserve supply and availability during lockdown. So trading during this period was largely at full margin, and when you consider costs are already covered, this is huge upside.
2. The increase in in-home consumption will continue post lockdown, and this will provide additional growth on top of Q1. Upside. Out of home sales are low profitability compared to in home. Upside.
3. Retailers are massively rationalising their ranges right now which will mean that only brand leader and own label will largely be listed. Range reviews are happening in next month or so. This massively plays into Premier’s hands and sales will grow massively further, over and above category growth.
4. The recent uptick in sales, will have allowed these guys to squirrel away money, and reduce their reliance on year end sell ins, which will provide a further upside this year or just generally holding numbers back to future proof and shore up future quarters. Upside.
Really excited about the further potential share price increase here and return available. I am in for at least next 12 months...
Good luck.
A very decent set of results. Quite frankly the market for a long time has been concerned whether PFD would ever really be profitable or ever be able to pay down debt. And also the market has for a long time seen PFD's management as below par, well below par. Agree with the comments about discounting being reduced, I looked this weekend and none of PFD's products were reduced and were clearly still selling well. Maybe management undervalued these brands for too long and gave too much away!
Well it looks as if things are changing. Some good results and looking like a very good start to this year. If they can sell off Hovis stake for a good price then the balance sheet suddenly looks much more healthy and dividends could be a possibility. For me the best thing is not so much the results, but the fact that at last PFD has some decent leadership.
I would however have a slight note of caution. PFD has undoubtedly been helped from both panic buying and also people not being able to eat in restaurants and cafe's. If people don't eat out then obviously consumption of goods for eating in will go up a lot. Whether the surge in demand for their products lasts, I doubt, but that doesn't mean this can't be a good business. Just expect some very choppy and unusual revenue numbers, highly doubt that Q1 next year will be able to match the Q1 we have just had.
I read the other day that breaking through 62p is a major point for PFD......I wonder if it will hold today.
Faring better was Mr Kipling cakes maker Premier Foods. It swung to an annual profit and said it expects to beat forecasts for the financial year ahead.
Revenue for the year to March 28 rose 2.8% to GBP847.1 million, with Premier Foods swinging to a pretax profit of GBP53.6 million from a GBP42.7 million loss, as administration costs fell 51% to GBP76.6 million.
We now have a good number of positives that will help drive momentum here. Would be disappointed & surprised if the wider Market isn’t supportive.
Dog. I suspect the biggest mover in the sp is reserved for the pension buyout. With confirmation that has now been signed, this may add to recent rises. 50/50
• Repayment of £80m callable at par Floating rate notes in FY20/21 Q1, reducing interest costs by over £4m p.a.
A nice conclusion to that report. Can the sp drop, as it usually does on results day???
Great set of results but I suspect not much that hasn't already been factored into the sp recently. Looks like I might have to wait until next year for divvy. Great news on Q1.. up 20%. That's huge.
Thats just brilliant... next years target expected to be greater than this year.... 1 pound and above very soon.
No bad, increased sales again , increased operating profit by £90m, reduced debt by £60m,
not looking too bad but will it move the sp to 80p ?
Here we go. Good luck all
Dividend ? All we need is confirmation of what we know, and a little bit more. Continued profit growth and debt pay down, and the sale of hovis in the future, will add more and more value. The cherry on the cake tomorrow will be a dividend. If not , happy with profit increase and debt pay off with reduced lending costs and increased profits. Did i say dividend as well, oh and promotion to FTSE 250. A sniff of a takeover will help the share price, but i dont want another company to reep the rewards. Looking forward to tomorrow.
This is exactly my fear........we have had loads of good news over the last couple of months. Pension sorted, results at top end of expectations, a good virus, debt reduction and a possible Hovis sale.
If there isn’t another rabbit out of the hat in the morning, I too fear drift.
Not long to wait...........
Btw I didn’t cash in either
The dice are rolling .....
I will even wear my luck pants ( anything if it will help ! )
Something always has to spoil the positive vibe. PDF investors get the first sniff of joy in years and then you get your Bank sending out emails reminding customers about the fact that they only have £85K financial protection.
Do they know something we don't? I'm probably reading too much into it, but I'm sure I've not had an email about this before.
I'll never have £85K anyway :)
I have got my prayer mat down , along with many other posters on this forum . Please let results be good.!
We know already that the results will be at the top end of market expectations, as stated in the April update, hence the recent SP strength. Question is can they still surprise to the upside....let’s hope so, otherwise drift will likely set in.
Bought some 2 months ago for a very cautious wife at 27p. Having more than doubled her investment in that time, she invoked the "bird in the hand" clause and told me to sell at 60.7p today.
Personally I need 70p to double my investment so I stayed put.
She's gonna be a nightmare tomorrow if they drop and I lose.
What makes you suggest a takeover? As far as im aware there is nothing on the cards re takeover
Hi, I am new to this board, been a holder for years now, hold tad over 1 million shares, highest holding is at 70.00p and 80.00p otherwise 95% in profit, really feel this is going to test new highs, depending on results. Decision to sell is always a personal choice. Good luck.