Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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IC guide to takeovers.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2011/12/06/the-ic-guide-to-takeovers-Q61Bs4hmDyZv8C3BfxKtxI/article.html
Ex ..I think that if a counter bid is on the way,itmay not be revealed until just before the CBRE vote.Slim chance but possible.
Yes sorry it was Terrace’s comment I attributed to you with all the re.re.re posts.
"Sain so which is it. Half your posts you feel the bid is undervalued and now you are saying it’s not worth £3.50?"
Was this meant for me ?No,I think it is very undervalued and concur with your post Sat 19.34.Interest in TEF should be wide ranging .They have assembled a formidable team including a whole host of sub-contractors forged strong relationships.
The For Sale flag has been raised .In terms of due dilgence I wouldn't have thought it would be too difficult to value either We have not been informed of the nature of the 2 new partnerships and how the spoils will be divided
More importantly at circa £300m TEF is literally bitesize for many especially as there will be a big pool of cash sitting there in August to draw from with all the various physical completions of sold apartments happening
The message being sent from this merger is that private sales are being effectively abandoned That somehow shareholders have been given a golden oportunity to cut and run whilst the going for BTR is good with concerns about TEF having to become more directly involved in the BTR ownership
This seems to be at total odds to the consistent message Steffy has delivered to shareholders over the years
"There is a clear shortage
of housing across London. "
Although Steffy as headlined the strategic shift to BTR only the other week in the Annual Report stated
"
Whilst we expect the more subdued
market for sales to continue throughout
2019, individual sales to owneroccupiers remain an important part of
our business."
Now they are seemingly not !!!!
It's been noted in the last month or so that sales of unsold apartments have been going particuarly well and with the prospect of Boris heading to no 10 and stamp duty conceesions the outlook is looking more favourable
All very strange !!
Ex...I think the shares are worth a lot more than 350p but unfortunately the market does not.No conflicting views in my posts.
Sain so which is it. Half your posts you feel the bid is undervalued and now you are saying it’s not worth £3.50?
Ex....shareholders did not think TEF were worth 350p in the few months pre bid.
There is also the argument that if the deal is rejected then enough shareholders believe £3.50 is undervalued and the price remains roughly stable.
For my money there are many covetous eyes within the industry and beyond of TEF’s contacts, awards, reputation and not withstanding recent planning issues their relationships with planners, agents and housing associations.
With the pound depressed foreign investment buys TEF for pocket change. At these levels what’s another £25, 50 or £75 million increased offer to take the prize. It would have to be a good offer to blow CBRE out of the water and them not wish to match.
If a Brexit deal is achieved, and I still think there will be some sort of fudged agreement, then this £3.50 at $1.25 USD to the pound will look like the deal if the century for CBRE. Bear in mind they are willing to increase their offer should there be a rival. It’s actually there in black and white that they are willing to pay more. Says it all really.
The majority of PI shares will be held in nominee accounts. Although many - but not all - platforms (e.g. Hargreaves Lansdown and Interactive Investor) will facilitate shareholders voting as a corporate action, it is a safe bet that many such holders will not vote. If it gets as far as the 6th August meetings without a counter-offer, I think that it is game over. On the issue of due diligence by another party, TEF is a publicly listed company and the counter-offer would be hostile. I don't believe that such a bidder would be entitled to carry out any due diligence. The timing constraint would be putting the financing for such an offer in place. If the appetite is there, there is still enough time left.
Steph..if the vote goes CBREs way,we will not benefit if a higher bid comes In after 6 August.If the vote goes against CBRE,there is the possibility of the SP returning to where is was prior to the bid.So if you think the vote will go against CBRE and nobody else bids before that might be a plan to sell at the 351p available now and buy back after 6 August.
I have no experience in these things but I put low odds on a counter bid in time -say 10 to 20%. Unless one was brewing already the due diligence makes it hard to hit the timeline. More likely is us shareholders vote this down. Only 25% need to rebel. I'd give odds on rejection as high as 30%. New bids might emerge after that as I suspect the sector did not think TEF was in play. I don't know what price the rebels would be looking for but plus 4.00 seems likely.
If voted down I'll be back in force to TEF. Still think it a great company with a great future. Quite irritated we are big pushed out at such a low price.
Oddly Crest went private in 2007 just before the crisis an went public again in 2014 once thigs were settled. That worked out well for them.
You are talking a good game here and perhaps they have just cleverly put TEF in play
Both Wisey and Steffy who normally wax lyrical when presenting a case you have to admit seem to lack conviction in selling the deal to shareholders .Perhaps this is all about giving the opportunity to the founding fathers to cash in their chips
The sector has perked up as It looks as if Boris will take a knife to stamp duty which is bound to help TEF
Opportunities like this rarely present themselves to shakers and movers .There must be 1or 2 getting busy
Stool
Yes Decisions for the acquistion of many of those sites were made some time ago The list was in response to Exdividend to point out historically they haven't and are still bearing fruits from some of those today
"Sain you can shoot me down but I don’t agree with you. I think the BOD have made bad site selection decisions and that’s why we are where we are. "
However I do agree with Ex that recent site purchases have not been as attractive .Both Stone Studios(no planning betterment)_ and Cambridge Heath Road acquired expensively unconditional . To be fair at the time the market was very frothy and you have to give credit to the BODS for downing tools rather than aggressively buy
Whether or not Jerry is a rainmaker we have yet to see?
However opportunities are mainly agent led and there will be plenty knocking at TEF's door
This is why U&C would be a great fit They conjure up deals from nowhere and TEF could do a job of BTR work on U&C's strategic landholdings !!!!
Stool
Yes Decisions for the acquistion of many of those sites were made some time ago The list was in response to Exdividend to point out historically they haven't and are still bearing fruits from some of those today
"Sain you can shoot me down but I don’t agree with you. I think the BOD have made bad site selection decisions and that’s why we are where we are. "
However I do agree with Ex that recent site purchases have not been as attractive .Both Stone Studios(no planning betterment)_ and Cambridge Heath Road acquired expensively unconditional . To be fair at the time the market was very frothy and you have to give credit to the BODS for downing tools rather than aggressively buy
Whether or not Jerry is a rainmaker we have yet to see?
However opportunities are mainly agent led and there will be plenty knocking at TEF's door
This is why U&C would be a great fit They conjure up deals from nowhere and TEF could do a job of BTR work on U&C's strategic landholdings !!!!
Sain, a number of the sites you mention were the old Telford homes metro division sites and were responsible for the site deals. A lot of the staff left the business and moved onto pastures new. May have been a contributing factor on where we are today.
Perhaps just to finish the train of thought, who might the target be if they really were trying to provoke a bid from another party by using CBRE as a stalking horse?
I would have thought the most obvious candidates were current strategic BTR partners who might not take kindly to CBRE muscling in.
Is that credible?
1gw....hope you are right because 350p is not enough.
The other point to make here, I think, is that as we are now getting well through the 10 business day period for declaring opening positions, 27% is a very low percentage of shares to have been declared, when there appears to be only Thames River of the previously identified significant shareholders still to declare.
How are Telford's advisers going to make a call on whether the 75% threshold will be achieved if such a large proportion of shares remains in the hands of undeclared shareholders? I presume they are going to have to get hold of the register and start ringing round at the sub-1% holding level. And what do they do if their analysis indicates they are unlikely to reach the passmark, given that CBRE has declared its offer "final"?
Is there still a chance the board accepted CBRE's offer and agreed to the "final" qualification in the expectation of it being simply a stalking horse for a better offer, that wouldn't emerge unless they first got the CBRE firm offer on the table? If you really wanted to entertain "conspiracy" theories you could even hypothesise that the luke-warm recommendation ("represents fair value") and failure to get even a letter of intent from any institutional shareholder was designed to give a good chance of rejection of the offer, should the counter-bid not emerge.
At the end of week 2 this remains intriguing.
12 shareholders have declared.
2 appear to have sold out (Bank of Montreal from 3.7%, Wise Funds from 1.0%)
1 appears to be on the way out (Schroders from 2.8% to 1.0% as of 11th July)
Only 1 has been buying significantly (M&A arb player Cicogne) & not since 5th July
The net result is that the sum of declared positions has fallen from 31% on 5th July to 27% as of today (with Wise funds declaring selling out today, other 8.3's for today probably on Monday).
So even more of an imbalance towards declared sells now, with Bank of Montreal selling 1.4m on 8th July, Schroders selling 848k on 11th, Wise Funds 770k on 12th. Graham Harris has also been selling steadily but on a smaller scale.
So I think there must be some serious buying going on for the shareprice to remain above 350p. I can't believe this can possibly be balanced by retail investors hoping to get lucky with a counter-bid, and in fact anecdotally we know from this board that there is a weighting towards declared sells rather than buys.
It could still, just about, be rationalised as other M&A arb players below the 1% declaration threshold, as I think they do have a tendency to hunt in packs (or perhaps use similar models). But a UK AIM housebuilder is not the obvious place to look for a lot of M&A arb activity, so I still think it is credible that someone else is building a position. The 10 business days to reveal opening positions will run out soon, so we should know more sometime next week.
I have to say I thought seriously today about taking the small profit on the swap into Crest and building my position back up here in the hope of a counterbid. But my personal experience remains that counterbids tend not to emerge in these "scheme of arrangement" deals so in the end I sat on my hands for today.
As usual, this is offered in good faith, but it is possible I have missed some declarations or made an error of analysis.
Other homebuilders had a good week SPwise.
All us long term holders are shell shocked. The longer the intention of the hold and the higher the percentage of our holdings as tef the more the shell shock.
I’ll be voting against with what I have left and will shift back from crest if we win.
Can’t blame management to recommend a great or even good offer nobody has given us a credible case that this (3.50) is a good deal for us. Would have been far better to have ridden out this 2 year dip in profits and political uncertainty. There was no shortage of cash to keep going, this is a sale of choice not necessity.
I really dont think that is the case TEF are in a very strong negotiating position as they deliver in difficult Boroughs
These developments are often 5 years from start to finish . The quality of the developer is of prime importance rather than fighting over the last £
It's just a flimsy excuse
>There was always the possibility that at some stage in the BTR journey institutions or partners will want the developer to have some skin in the development to share risks
Yes but giving institutions what they want may just show the balance of power.
After having all this interest from multiple potential partners and TEF being able to pick and choose who they partner with they now appear to have ones that are asking them to do something they're not very keen on doing.
Institutions may not be as desperate for TEF's services as previously thought. The unlimited fund for growth may not actually be there on the terms that TEF want.
It doesn't look like TEF are in a very strong negotiating position if they are having to do things they don't want to.
Cybs
There was always the possibility that at some stage in the BTR journey institutions or partners will want the developer to have some skin in the development to share risks This was always going to be the case so to hoist it up now as some sort of red flag to jusytify jumping ship is a poor excuse .
As they scale up providing a management and letting service would be an additional revevue stream and a logical move
CBRE already of course having an in house team availble to exploit this
The company is not providing its shareholders with enough information to enable them to hake an informed decision regarding their vote on 6 August.Shareholders are asking themselves,"am I getting a good deal"?.We don't,at the moment,have the ability to know that.