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Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oae33WdkLx8&list=PLF1-XapOV1fePHKA-Yd3PMIHwlr82NY9V&index=3&pp=iAQB
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I wanted to comment on Jouang1's post last night. C4X and Redx's delistings are really significant events and everyone who is long on any AIM bio, not just Scancell should be asking themselves the same question. Although it's popular because it's what we'd like to believe, simply stating that it won't happen to Scancell because it runs a tighter ship and has more chances of deals is not the answer IMO.
C4X and Redx are two of the most successful bios on AIM when it comes to deals. They both have signed several deals with big pharma worth up to $2.5 billion and have already banked nearly $115m in milestones and up front payments. Before anyone leaps to Scancell's defence, they are both operating in a very different space to Scancell. They create best in class small molecules - much easier to cut a deal if your developing a molecule that is superior to an existing FDA approved product than if your going after completely novel and unproven targets. So both companies have a proven track record of creating commercially attractive molecules and the expectation of further deals. C4X is sitting on a pile of cash and Redx have a cash runway to 2025 but with additional near term milestones expected.
Whether to remain listed on AIM boils down to a simple cost/benefit analysis and both bios believe the scales have tipped in favour of being run as a private company where they say they'll have access to a much wider pool of specialist investors. Valuations on AIM mean that they'd either have to accept massive dilution with every round of funding or they'll have to reduce costs by scaling back on R&D thereby hampering development of their pipeline. The fact that the redemption date for the Redx CLNs held by Redmile and Sofinnova is fast approaching (Aug 2024) and that they both have a seat on the Redx board must surely have been a factor in the timing of this decision and worth noting this line from their RNS:-
'the limited liquidity in the Ordinary Shares makes it challenging for Shareholders of any size to acquire additional Ordinary Shares or dispose of any Ordinary Shares in the market at an attractive price'
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Having said all of that, the original question was whether Scancell differs from Redx and I think it does for the following reasons:-
1) Scancell are funded through to 2025 inflection points. Crucially the redemption date for Redmile's CLNs isn't until the back end of 2025 and they can't convert before this date. This means that Scancell can afford to wait and see whether market conditions improve
2) Scancell have nearly 930m shares in issue and the bulk are held by retail investors. C4X and Redx have just 252m and 389m shares in issue with a much lower percentage of these held by retail investors. This matters because in order to delist a minimum of 75% of votes are needed and I'm not sure Scancell could achieve that as most retail investors would likely vote against delisting.
3) Both C4X and Redx are further down the deal making road and this combined with the space they are operating in may make it easier for them to raise cash as a private company thus tipping the scales a bit further towards delisting
For all of the above reasons and simply a gut feeling that I can't imagine Lindy Durrant going down that route I think Scancell's situation is different. For sure though Redmile will want to see an exit route here. They may agree to extend the CLNs further and there are other possible scenarios (NASDAQ listing, sale etc.) but one way or another 2025 really is an important year for Scancell.
Apologies for the long post but we focus so much on the science on this bb and it's easy to overlook or underestimate the commercial/financial/corporate issues and bios delisting and the poor performance of the AIM market is something that we should be discussing in an open and balanced way. All IMO of course.
Deals happen all the time. Last AZ tells us that billions exchange hands when there is something worth buying.
The only things that matter here are data and deals. The rest is just noise.
But data and deals could literally happen at any time at all.
Meanwhile, Vulpes will be upgrading their adjectives from “derisory”…..
When status of share price is based on maybe if hope possible and other meaningless wishful thinking words then outcome is clear, that what I meant.
Prof Sarah Danson was author of abstract
This year's Melanoma Patient Conference session videos are now LIVE! 📽
You can access all of this year's sessions here: https://buff.ly/3xAae3u
Once again thank you to all of those who made this year's event such a great success! We look forward to welcoming you again next year.
#melanoma #melanomapatientconference #patientconference #mpc2024
Thanks Iofas. I got sleep as I'm BST + 6 hrs !
I very much doubt if anything I post here will affect the SP in any way at all. Just recounting some thoughts. ATB
Hope, might & possible can only push SP down or sideways …get some sleep.
An RNS is possible any day, including today.
Recalling the comment made by Moderna at a recent Event, to our CEO, to the effect that, "if you're right, we're in trouble", it's OK to wonder if Moderna have learnt much more on that theme lately?
Prof. Lindy will surely have had chats at least with BioNTech and Moderna in this adjacency, for sure. Whilst it's fair to bewail our 'missing' RNS, when it arrives, let's hope it proves worth the wait.
I think it possible that with discussions, meets, travel etc., matters Scancell might be busy over there. We'll see . . . GLA
Nasdaq a more likely route. I notice shell are thinking about delisting from the FTSE as they feel under appreciated.
Oncology is the single largest market in the global biopharma industry, worth over $200B. Here's a look at the top 15 drugs in the space, and some insights behind the numbers:
1. Several top sellers are facing LOEs soon: Pfizer's Ibrance faces competition in 2027, while Merck's Keytruda and BMS's Opdivo face expirations in 2028.
2. 4 drugs gained over $1B each in addition sales compared to 2022:
Keytruda (up $4.1B) Darzalex (up $1.8B) Imfinzi (up $1.5B) and Verzenio (up $1.4B).
The biggest decliner was BMS's Revlimid, which saw sales drop by almost $4B from 2022.
3. It is notable just how much these drugs depend on the US market for revenue - for several of the top drugs (e.g., Darzalex, Opdivo, and Ibrance), US sales accounted for well over 50% of total revenue.
The next few years have a lot in store - major LOEs, new modalities like ADCs, and more favorable capital markets - all of which will continue to make oncology one of the most dynamic parts of biopharma.
Infographic showing the 15 biggest oncology drugs by revenue in 2023, along with logos of the companies that made each drug
I agree Bobbust that’s some cash burn 🔥
They were burning through the cash at a fair rate £33m for the last year. I think they must have found it dificult to raise any more.
Looks like we run a tighter ship with a longer runnway and more chances of deals to fund the rest of the development
C4XD doing the same. I doubt it will happen with Scancell as funding sorted for a while yet.
Reading about Redx (backed by Redmile) delisting concerns me. They cite low liquidity leading to depressed share price as the reasons for delisting.
Any thoughts on this and does anyone know how Redx situation differs from Scancell?
Nice to see SCLP get mentioned.
Very good to see SCLP bounce back, pleased I did not give my share away.
A nice short summary post AACR.
https://www.delveinsight.com/blog/cancer-vaccines-landscape
Some photos from the 2024 Conference that you may find of interest. Could be one or more of the photos shows Ballroom 20.
Guess there is disappointment in some quarters that there was no RNS today but who knows what conversations took place and with whom and what the outcome might be from those, in due course.
https://www.aacrmeetingnews.org/attendee-map-gallery/
Another buying opportunity.
Agreed PB.
Two big sells early afternoon putting downward pressure on the sp.
Could be a buying opportunity for some
Missed that one, but explains why. Thank you for pointing it out.
The price is the ultimate arbiter and tells you what is going on.
Indeed. Makes a nonsense of any attempt to analyse the level of buys and sells