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Luf
You are correct. There will be an initial free float of 23% or 4 billion shares. Chrysaor shareholders are locked in for 6 months except for Harbour who are locked in for 12 months.
Debt holders with more than 2.7% of shares, there is a 3 month lock in but unlikely than any one creditors will have 500m shares after closing their shorts.
OK, that post was for.......... 88E. PMO are easily worth 30p per share IMHO.
Sorry about that!!!
New shares can’t be traded for Minimum of 3 months and most longer. Only way is up now. 50p coming soon
Should be around £6.5bn if valued on a par with its peers so you can see how far adrift we are tonight.
Premier shareholders will own around 5% of Harbour, with new shares going to Premier creditors (18%) and Chrysaor shareholders (77%), including private equity firm EIG and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC. Given this increase in the number of shares, Harbour's market capitalization is expected to rise accordingly compared with Premier's. Most new shares are locked in for at least three months.
Am I wrong in thinking only 23% of shares can be traded from tomorrow the rest are subject to a 6 or 12 month lock-in?
26p
Kraken. Great call on +10% today and I hope people did not buy on the back of your lack of understanding of what is driving the share price. If you thought the volatility today was disturbing based on 14m share changing hands, wait until tomorrow and the next few weeks as distressed debt holders offload some or all of their 3 billion shares.
As I have stated in previous posts, I believe that the share price will likely fluctuate between 20 and 30p over next few weeks as creditors sell their shares into every rise. Hopefully there will be a lot of off market purchases otherwise this could get really messy.
Need to embrace and trade this volatility and take some money off the big boys. I have deposited cash at IG Index and long order placed to buy at 20p with a limit of 28p. Once price hits 30p, I will go short with a stop of 22p.
So, which paints the rosier picture , old or new ?
https://www.harbourenergy.com/201006-analyst-presentation-final.pdf
interesting to see the differences between original proposal and now
It’s based on a price deck of 60 for 2022. You make up your own mind if oil will be below or above and go from there.
They state a $5 bbl move in brent adds 4p per share and improves cashflow by 170m. A 5p a therm move in U.K. gas adds 1p per share and cashflow by 50m.
It’s also based on ev cashflow multiple of 5x. That I think goes higher as market sees the cashflow this sector is going to generate at current oil prices.
I think 50p is a better price target in the next 2 week
I bought a few more before close. This is pants this share. Picked this and Tullow and 1 year ago. Tullow is also painful share to own, but at least its up a good 200% from when I bought it. Flipped a coin - invested 80% funds in TLW and 20% in PMO.
Lucky call really. This share will be fine long term, just need to hold and be patient. Good luck to all.
Overweight recommendation and 30p px target
Re harbour... “will provide U.K. investors with a new e&p stock with the scale, breadth and balance sheet needed to be an attractive tube investment proposition in what remains a challenged sub sector. As the UK’s largest oil and gas producer, we forecast harbour could generate over $1.1bn per n free cashflow in 2022 at $60 oil; sufficient for management to deliver on all 3 of its capital allocation priorities - balance sheet strength, portfolio enhancement, shareholder returns. We assume fy 21 dividend of 1p a share (~240m) as the start of a sustainable dividend policy with a ~4% yield. We reinstate rating at overweight and a 30p price target”
when it opens a further -5-10% down,
I say everyone should short it to zero and give the bond holders a taste of their bad medicine
Tullow oil had a Mcap of £16billion back in 2012 with production around 100k
"April Fools Day". Surely they cant be that cruel....Will be very nervous at Tomorrows start not realy knowing which way it will go. May take a few weeks to settle down to a more stable price range.
Biggest independent oil and gas company - yes - but you only 5% of it so ermmmmm.........
Harbour energy would need to reach a crazy MCAP of 20 billion, just for PMO shareholders to reach around £1 again.......
Harbour energy will have no debt already to start with? so How are we going to see huge gains in Harbours MCAP unless we see $100+ oil again soon
I take it ~18.5 Billion HBR shares at 22.4p, ~£4.2 billion share value in the morning but no idea if that is fair value. might be an interesting April fools day hope i am not the fool loading up yesterday
Hydra8des, I fear you are right. So the pain continues, albeit under a different mistress - HBR. Hell Bent on Ruining ( Shareholders )
We aren't pmo shareholders, we are HBR shareholders, a brand new company and largest independent oil producer in UK, with a £4bn tax allowance
.