Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
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Lucy Tobin aka The Tipster in Sunday Times headlined her piece this Sunday as 'Futura is looking for rapid growth'
She reminds readers that it has only 14 staff/directors working out of a small Surrey University Science park. She says that Futura has made a product that works and it is only just starting to shout about it. She makes clear things we might forget that Futura has minimised risk by outsourcing all it can; it does the science, but then, said James Barder, CEO "looks for commercial partners to do the rest." "We've done so in the UK, Europe and 7 countries in the Middle East. Saudi approval is expected in September - that's the biggest ED market in the Middle East." She was a day early for today's news re the US and probably thought like us it would fly.
It hasn't - but as sure as night follows day, unless male appendages start to shrink from too much Eroxon, then we are in for a sustained shareprice growth sooner or later. Initial sales at Boots were phenomenal - we know that - eventually these figures will become well known in the market and others will want their share of the action. Sit tight everyone our day is coming.
I must say I was disappointed with today's performance --
OK we don't know the details of any deal, but we could not hope for better partners
to take on the USA. I look forward to great progress !
Heck if HALEON like EROXON they might even want to look at FUMs diclofenac gel which looks at early stage better than HALEONs own diclofenac gel. https://www.futuramedical.com/what-we-do/pain-relief/tpr100-clinical-data/
Well let's see where this goes over next couple of weeks?
My bet past 70 and possibly upto a pound.
Broker said deal by ended 2023 would be great.
Reality deal done now!!! 5 to 6 months before even that hoped for date. $4 mill payment agreed plus together add ons.
Prior reports saidon sale in USA in 12 to 18 months .
RNS says onsale in USA SOON!!
Now soon to me is well well well before then.
The deal is done. Over!
Fantastic news and background info. Watch this develop momentum over there.
I am over the moon!
Look what happened with sales from initial Boots launch,plus ongoing 100 plus a day. Take No Notice of the Boots attempted review destruction. It obviously works % wise is my bet and has had numerous tests. Haleon wont have threw that money at it for the privilege without seeing latest confirmation of it all. Imagine when it is launched in the USA soon!!
This is primed and ready for lift off. And that is coming is my bet!
And steady worldwide deals to follow. Yes . Very pleased.
Read the RNS!
Yes the UK market is comical atm and I suspect that market makers are making little or no money these days hence the wild and illogical swings we see not only on AIM but on the larger cap indices too. It smacks of desperation just like some of the posters on here. UK Pension funds have exited UK listed companies over the past couple of years and focussed on overseas stocks and government securities and now that interest rates are higher than we have seen for many years, risk free returns of 5% are available ( T-bonds and gilts) so fund managers have taken the safe option to the detriment of listed companies. This won’t change a great deal until inflation is brought under control allowing interest rates to come down. When this eventually happens those same fund managers will have to work harder for their returns and do some research again into stock picking god forbid they are let loose again to do that! In the meantime if you have capital to allocate and time on your side investing in attractive growth prospects like Futura will IMO prove to be a good investment and this will become clearer when granular data is published. The lack of this data makes it too easy to knock potential future returns as we have seen today. You are either a believer that a good team of partners is being established to drive the growth of new sales across the globe with more to come and a very attractive free cash flow stream or you think that the Board will blindly give away everything that they have worked for a measly few % royalty deal. I think that I will back the management team to optimise returns now that we have reached this point in time after many tough years and I will happily wait for a year or two before the obvious potential is reflected in the financials.
Well lets
Sounds a little bit like 'The man who gave the Beatles away'
Taking into account the US$4mln in upfront payments Futura is set to receive, Liberum has upgraded its price target from 142p to 152p.
“We still see significant upside despite the strong recent performance and remain buyers,” said Liberum.
today's rsn content was poorly constructed (imo only). all that was required today was the name of the long awaited 'amazing' partner. the sp would have taken-off on just that news.
it is widely understood that company is not expected to release business sensitive information. however, releasing half-****ed, incomplete numbers, just went to further muddy the water.
i can see the us product and pricing to be totally different to eroxon. haleon plc will, independently have its own take on capturing the us market.
"futura will provide ongoing technical support...." only.
Unfortunately these days the market is controlled by the knuckle scrapers aided and abetted by the MMs. They cannot spell investing,never mind understand the meaning.
Hi, here is something I thought you might find interesting: - https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/haleon-an-excellent-choice-for-futuras-us-ambitions-says-broker-3085222
Again, shockin. No sooner do media outlets say " FUM surges and soars on US deal", that surge and soar has sunk. Dead cat bounce for today needed please lol.
All the AIM shares moves on the MM or some players whim. Almost impossible to do proper trading. They move by large amount without any news. Then mm's widens the spread to stop any one trading.
*** packed calculatio: well if us is 51% of world market, 2*£64m is nearly £128m. a p/e of 10 would mean a market cap of over £1bn which is 8 or 9 time’s current price. not too shabby!
“The profits of the Joint Collaboration will be shared 50:50 between Futura and Co-High.”
That’s a JV, todays news is a licensing deal, the two are as comparable a cat and donkey.
Drug licensing deals are fairly common on NASDAQ. Good royalty rates are 20%+ and are rare. Low double digits are probably most common. However, plenty of mid to high single digit deals are done.
This announcement is very vague, they’ve only given away one useful fact which is the up front of £4m. The milestone range means nothing on its own without knowing what the conditions are.
IMO they’ve been vague because it prevents the market from accurately valuing the business & stops PI’s from understanding the downsides of the deal.
Had they said the £5-45m of potential milestones were contingent on $50-250m of sales being achieved in the 5 years post launch & also disclosed a royalty rate of 10% then most people could have worked out that the top end of their estimates would result in $25m royalties + £45m milestones.
As it is, the everyone can still speculate and dream of mega sales figures. Until they release forecasts I can’t see this going anywhere.
Disappointing fall back of SP.
Interesting that press release refers only to MED3000 and not Eroxon. Hopefully lessons have been learnt from European launch and product will be better branded, packaged and more realistically priced to attract larger market of recreational users.
Very disappointing share price for such major RNS had a chance to buy some more though
The top 5 shareholders of Futura Medical as of 30 June 2023 are:
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited (28.50%)
T Adams (6.89%)
WT Lamb Investments Limited (4.51%)
RA Lamb (3.28%)
Chelverton Asset Management (3.01%)
The general public owns 21% of the company's shares.
Sales are vanity and profit is sanity right?
The income of a % of all sales is perfect. Working at a 10% (ish) margin would be amazing if we had all of the production and marketing costs.
So cutting all of this out and passing these costs onto a company who have much bigger buying power than a small company would have.
So would we want 100m sales and a risk of not converting that or a guaranteed profit figure with minimal head offices costs who mainly see upside upon share price increases.
Seems to me all incentives and risk management are aligned, and yeah the ultimate realisation of this all will be either a sale or significant dividends.
Subbing everything out for a definite profit margin is great news.
More of these deals please!! The share price will follow
FUM have kept the royalties a secret because they say it's commericially senstive information as they are doing other deals.
But if you look at the RNS from 4 March 2021 they say this
Commercial Highlights:
· Co-High is responsible for all regional MED3000 development and regulatory costs, which are estimated to be up to £4 million.
· The profits of the Joint Collaboration will be shared 50:50 between Futura and Co-High.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FUM/futura-announces-investment-joint-collaboration-c34mimt2fuhoi0k.html
So cannot believe that they would suddenly drop the % to single figures on other deals - imo.
But I guess we won't really know until we are start seeing sales figures etc etc. They are releasing interim figures in Sept, which they've already indcated it should be over 1.5m pounds. Which, for me, means we won't really see how it's going until April 2024 when they release final year figures
Odey has a 29% stake, and it is likely that they are offloading their shares, which is evident from the large buys compared to the background selling.
Given the nature of FUM’s business model the only way forward was to license the product.Do you really expect the company to disclose their royalty rate,given they will be negotiating with other distributors.
FUM will have very modest calls on its income going forward,given that all the research and development costs have been incurred.
I have a recollection that many years ago JB commented that the long term strategy was to sell the company. I think today’s news make that more likely.
The fact they haven't disclosed the royalty rate tells you all you need to know. Likely mid to high single digits as it removes a lot of the financial risk from FUM, however it also removes the reward / upside of the worlds biggest market and I don't think £4m up front & undisclosed milestones make up for it.
Plugging in the following; a royalty rate of 7.5%, USD/GBP of FX of 1.3, a discount rate of 8% & annual sales averaging $100m starting from 2025 and continuing for 8 years gives you a present value of £28m. Are they really going to average those kind of sales figures?
It's classic AIM in my opinion, flattering to deceive.
Bottom_feeder - I suspect you are right that Haleon has the better deal but that doesn't mean I have to agree with you as regards the future for us as shareholders in Futura. We've seen that slowly slowly we have made good progress with our link with Coopers in Europe and there is nothing at this stage to suggest otherwise when it comes to the US.
It's difficult to judge what Lombrad Odier's long-term ambitions are with FUM - to some extent that is holding the shareprice back - but once we have some financial data beyond just these upfront payments, as good as they are, we'll not really see the shareprice take off.
I'm pointing out the fact that there is little info about actual 'Royalty' conditions.
Having negotiated Royalites for IPR etc myself (yes Bandit1 I actually do know about this stuff!) the Royalties can be exceedling small.
Also, the Royalty conditions can haave a marked effect on the actual incom revenue. Such as whether royalty percentage is paid on gross sale or net after Seller removes ALL overheads.
Such conditions can render Royalt payments almost non-existent.
So, until an RNS comes out as to 'whaat' the Royalty' payment terms are AND we get a figure of the sales etc, we don't have a clue as to what the future income stream actually is at all.
So, yes the RNS doesn't give us much clue. If FUM is only getting 5% of NET sales revenue (after all costs etc) then that won't actually be that much.
Haleon definitely has the better deal.... unless FUM release more detailed information.