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Well the good news is all the directors holding means we are aligned regards dilution. Some directors have been significantly diluted since the Great Bear days so I can't see them wanting more. When you are likely looking at 3-4B bbls there is room for dilution.
The big question over here is all about the cash. Funding funding funding. How will PANR fund to production?
Clearly, the market expects significant dilution and isnt buying buzzword fluff about "mutually beneficial agreements" and "advanced talks".
It would be foolish to not expect significant dilution here. The question is, how much of the company will be left for current shareholders? Enough to make it worth holding? Some clearly dont think so, evidenced by price action here.
I personally hate it when directors state "keep dilution to a minimum". Whats their definition of minimum? Probably not the same as shareholders. So many times this phrase has been uttered, but shareholders completely wiped out.
18:45
Thanks for swinging by, MadEnglish. Please note that at no time has olderwiser, Rabito79 or I posted infantile drivel like "Get out now" or "Sell your PANR while you can". Nope, we provide fact checks and corrections, and calculations with full working. Unlike so many on the 88E forum, we also provide citations and sources for out statements.
Tell you a funny story which happened earlier today. You'll double over laughing! One of the 88E posters reported a poster called MunnieTorx for stating that Hickory-1 was being P&A'd. He was furious, demanding a source for MunnieTork's statement. Wait 'til you here this.....I was able to copy and paste a sentence from 88E's RNS dated 15/4/24 where 88E management itself informed the market it was P&Aing Hickory-1. Tough market when shareholders can't even be bothered reading their own RNSs, eh?
Now that you're here, I have a couple of questions for you. What do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the slightest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to swing by!
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17:20
No wonder you're gulping, DrMicho. The prospect of a further noteworthy reduction in the SP of 88E must be of great concern. I feel for you.
Now then, why is it you keep forgetting to answer the following pertinent questions? Let me help you again - that's the type of thoughtful and generous guy I am!
Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok DrMicho? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking. Agreed? I just read on the 88E forum that you've opened a short position on PANR. Please be sure it's a full unit, DrMIcho. Just imagine, from this date until the end of Q2'24 you'll be waking every morning dreading any news from Governor Dunleavy about the Alaska gas pipeline being given the go ahead. *If* that happens, you will without any question, lose a huge amount of money on that short position.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch DrMicho, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to post on this forum!
That wasn’t for you blue/red so keep yourself quiet…
Unpadded post for the new clowns: stop talking drivel.
Might hear something soon! Let’s hope any prospective fundraise won’t be too aggressive in nature. Why do you need to pad your posts out so much, you do realise most people just scroll past. See what tomorrow brings, gulp.
16:40
DrMicho - you clearly missed my earlier post timed at 16:24. Here, let me ask these pertinent questions once again.
Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking. Agreed?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch DrMicho, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to post on this forum!
Theres been a drop in SP that blatantly points to a little uncertainty surrounding needed funds... Scot ramping away for his life trying to suck in new investors so they can lose money instantly. I agree, a 20% discount would be a fair starting point. Big risk and big losses..
Thanks for your posts, Owl, Stas and Micho.
A question for you all. Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Look forward to hearing back from you!
Normally a placing will see a good -20-40% haircut
DrMicho, yes quite likely and it could be large, all depends on if they get financing, but having already lost one contender and now only one left in the ring, chance of a placing is high and the lower this price drops the lower the placing and likely the discount achieved to get one away.
Is there a placing due???? Looks like this will be subby 30 if that happens....take your chances. I would personally hold off, its dropped 15% in a few days, placing???
Make that 150k, sirmark! Over to you.
Well done Scott, my sell order is still with my broker due to the size but nothing back yet :(
Sorry, Sirmark, just bought 100k shares. Sadly PANR has been hit by the wash of 88E's disappointing flow data from their downdip location. This is too cheap with 2x IERs incoming about Ahpun.
Lol Scot
"Quote to me in my post-webinar content where I have stated PANR is negotiating with more than one OFS firm? You can't because I wrote no such thing. I deal in facts, and happily so. You do not."
Perhaps it is you that has problem with understanding, perhaps you need to first quote to me where I said you did?
As regards the 250 million, I know exactly what I stated its on slide 22 fyi
- Proposal for Pantheon to sell methane from its associated gas (ie excluding NGLs shipped through TAPS and delivered as ANS crude stream) at a base price up to $1 per mmBtu at exit to Ahpun Facility1
- Minimum 20 year take or pay (ToP) contract would provide borrowing capacity of up to $250 million at Ahpun FID (50% of Real Post Tax NPV12.5)
Note a proposal, may not even come of but the intention is clear it is this proposal that -
"This is a key underpinning of our ability to mobilise non equity capital to support the development which is the lions share of the costs that we talked about as being required to get us through to cash flow break even and financial self sufficiency"
thus without this, then non equity raise is out and dilution by equity and a lot of it is assured.
Can we hold off buying for a bit please...just trying to get funds in ...lol
Lee Keeling Report due very shortly..... personally I'm looking to buy another 130k today !!
Can you point us to the post and also if you can point us to the post when you said to buy before the rise please as I can't find it !
TRUE TO FORM 33 did say at 45 take profits
09:00
Well, Stas20, I suggest you watch the webinars again because you clearly didn't pay attention. You have incorrectly quoted the NPV of the proposed "take or pay" gas contract and then mistakenly gone on to use that figure as the target required for PANR to move to FID and self-financing of Ahpun. Facts, not guesswork, Stas20. You should try it sometime.
Quote to me in my post-webinar content where I have stated PANR is negotiating with more than one OFS firm? You can't because I wrote no such thing. I deal in facts, and happily so. You do not.
So stipulated that not all plans come to fruition.
Question for you, Stas20. Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is that jeopardy which blows to smithereens your favoured outcome as described in your post below.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Erm Scot, unfortunately for you, maybe in your typing of you lengthy posts, you missed some of my past ones here. I explained before, however I watched the recent presentation, oh yes all of it, Panr have lost one of the potential backers, only one left in the negotiation, the company has a plan but as we know, not all plans come to fruition.
If they are not funded in the way they hope then their only recourse will be equity, they know that and so do others, $250million is the requirement and to be honest I was generous to you, price now is 33.95p a 10% discount to that price (being generous again) would give a raise at lets call it 29p that is 862,068,966 shares. Additionally, based on the recent bond conversions that could add another 100 million shares, so getting towards a billion or doubling of the current share count. Any further drop in SP adds to that dilution and Mangrove don't seem to be to worried to be closing their short, in fact they may even up it.
My view is as people get to realise this they are likely to sell out to hold in cash till after the raise putting further pressure on the share price, its all pretty inevitable.
08:19
Stas20 - hmmm.....I'm not entirely convinced you're up to speed on this subject matter. Tell you what, I'll give you a helping hand. Go to YouTube and have a listen to PANR's two most recent webinars. You'll become informed about PANR's "live negotiations" with a "large" OFS firm.
You'll also learn about PANR's Exec Chairman's negotiations with the AGDC (Google it, Stas20) and the State of Alaska. *If* the gas pipeline is given the go-ahead that would see PANR parlay its long term (20 years?) take or pay gas contract into a govt/AGDC backed loan facility with a financial institution. PANR's Exec Chairman confirmed that the *potential* size of the facility could mean there would be little or no further requirement for equity finance to get the project to a self-financing stage.
Lots more research required by you, Stas20. Enjoy the webinars. Oh, and be sure to read PANR's RNSs too. You'll like them.....loaded with data, very transparent.