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Hi FCFY,
You're figure's are wrong.
If DNO has FCF of $138M then Genel's would be 1/3 of that figure (75/25% split) ie $46M not $18M.
Yes the arbitration hearing is going to be very interesting indeed & could very well be a game changer for Genel & its shareholders.
I'm not sure why so many GKP followers haven't cottoned on to that fact.
GLA
LOTM
Credits to a user on the GKP BB. Copy Paste.
"DNO reports a Q4 trading update this morning. Gross production in Kurdistan averaged 65.8 kbd and compares to the 65 kbd guided on 19 Dec 2023 (link). With December production likely around 90 kbd, DNO is well positioned to continue the strong ramp-up q/q in Q1, all else equal. All Kurdistan sales are local with payments in advance of deliveries. We estimate that DNO’s Kurdistan business will generate approximately USD 100m of FCF in 2024 if local sales remain at 65 kbd.
from my broker re DNO, hopefully good news for us as well"
imo, higher sales rather than lower. The tanker that Iran sized was transporting oil from Iraq to Turkey, showing Turkey still has heavy demand; some must be going over the border.
Our last entitlement was 13%. If production is still at 90Kbopd then FCF for DNO's Kurdistan ops would be $138M.
As they operate the licence, ours should be more or less 13% of that. (I'm going to presume, given the Red Sea situation, Somaliland will be put on hold and the court case is in Feb.
So around $18m of FCF or £14.4m
Given the Enterprise Value is £75m, that's a 20% FCF yield, which is impressive on its own, nevermind the oil is sold at $35bbl, and production is about 1/3 of what Genel has.
Arbitration case,
After a few mentions of the arbitration case, I took a look. I couldn't believe it's not mentioned more, but the company has kept it quiet, I presume likely due to the amounts involed and sensitivity
Not sure if anyone has posted this article from Reuters?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/genel-energy-start-arbitration-claim-against-iraqi-kurdistan-2021-12-10/
Genel spent around $1.4B on the licences. Adjusted for inflation $1.8B. So
£1.44B to recover costs. That excludes opportunity cost.
Interestingly, Dana had a very similar case in the same court. They won $2.24B
Article - https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1BA26Z/
Once the case is heard, then one would expect to hear the ruling within a few months and settle the ruling within the year. Considering today's market cap, that's a 7X return.
From the Enterprise value, it's a 19X return.
If they win, they should pay all the cash-out and leave Kurdistan to run.
All eyes are on GKP for a Kurdistan turnaround, but I think Genel has been overlooked due to the low key approach to the court case.
Looking forward to it, should hear news on court case, maybe Somaliland
Just had notification of Meet the company meeting 24th at 10.
Looks like we’re the only oily down today. Oil prices on way back up
Wrong board. Ignore the last two messages.
I'd say the sign off is now a matter of when and not if.
The government has stated that the Bill aims to achieve the following:
Make the UK more energy independent and safeguard domestic energy supplies by increasing investor and industry confidence.
Enhance the UK’s energy security and reduce dependence on higher emission imports from overseas.
Protect the domestic oil and gas industry that supports more than 200,000 jobs.
Realise the UK’s net zero target in a pragmatic, proportionate and realistic way; without unduly burdening families and businesses.[1]
The obligation on NSTA to run an annual application round would only apply if two tests are met: a carbon intensity test, which would be met if the carbon intensity of domestic gas is lower than imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG); and a net importer test, which would be met if the UK is projected to be a net importer of both oil and gas over a 15-year assessment period
Sorry yes confused another rns
I didn’t see an RNS yesterday?
Agrree, looking forward to February court hearings
Today’s drop in the SP was a gift, I hope everyone bought or topped up
We will never see these prices again, after yesterday’s RNS GENL looks very strong and as a company updating their share holders frequently, unlike another company in the same region.
I still think at these bargain price, a take over offer will coming in soon and as soon as the oil flows again, we will easily see 150p +
Anything can happen over the weekend FOMO for Monday news
Jefferies are fools. Hope it dips back in the 60s so I can buy more.
Hmm got a downgrade this morning
Jefferies cuts Genel Energy price target to 85 (95) pence - 'hold'
GLA
LOTM
Hi JPPoubelle
I use Barclays & yes they have a price improver that does get me a much better price than the official quote a lot of the time.
However up until now probably 85%+ of my trades have appeared on the LSE (& I've done 30+ in Genel) yet all of a sudden my 2 trades yesterday & 2 this morning have gone somewhere else!
That's what I'm finding rather strange. As if something different is going on & as you know we'll be the last to find out what it is!
GLA
LOTM
@LOTM-13 : I've been labelled a conspiracy theorist during COVID as I had a basic understanding of molecular biology and immunity, but you're reading too much into this. If you're using HL, your orders are filled from their own liquidity pool and it's usually with better prices than for us poor sods in Europe (my broker sometimes routes my order through BATS, which has crap liquidity and prices...). In that case, your order is never sent to the exchange and will not appear.
Bought another 2,000 shares this morning & again the trade didn't go through the LSE.
I wonder what they are trying to hide ?
GLA
LOTM
I picked some more up at 14:00, just checked London stock ex, two 10,000 and others (including mine) were traded off book.
Bought 2 trading parcels (of 10,000 shares each) in Genel in the last 30 mins & neither is showing up on the LSE list.
Looks like the MM's are trying not to wake the bots up !
Could be an interesting afternoon !!!
As we move a day close to the court case.
GLA
LOTM
With Ethopia could be a good thing for Genel, it has stirred up Somalia , however the Independance now being recognized by Ethopia is good news
They were probably waiting for the American oil
Company to leave before they resume oil. I think we will get news very soon, hold onto your shares
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxonmobil-hands-over-operations-west-qurna-1-oilfield-petrochina-2024-01-01/
We should have a very good 2024, here at Genel , lots of upside to come in my opinion ,
Court Case
Farm out
Pipe line opening back up
were still making money and covering overheads
Happy New Year everyone
Hi TSSZ,
I have to disagree, there is very little sign of PI's selling GKP & buying Genel.
The rest I'd agree with it certainly has a lot more upside than GKP in the short term especially with the court case just 5 or 6 weeks away.
They are banking money all the time & getting back some of the overdue payments as well, while GKP isn't doing much better than break even right now.
Yet the clamour is to own GKP right now. Whether that's to do with short's closing out or what I'm not sure, but there is definitely a buyer of GKP out there soaking up all the sells, how much stock they want is a different question.
Genel stock seems to be in pretty short supply & the price would pop if there were a few more buyer around.
GLA
LOTM
I think PI’s are selling GKP to buy GENL
GENL has more upside than GKP at this price
GENL has better control of their money and production and would be a better company for a take over bid currently from the last rns