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Lol OP,,,, stay with it, your points are more than valid, and I am sure you will (as I will) change your view/tone WHEN the company changes theirs !!
To each his own, Bubblepoint.
Personally, I appreciate their efforts to communicate with investors and believe investor relations are important.
Bubblepoint: we seem to be overlapping! I think I’ll leave this to you for a while.
Ocelot: I’ve watched them and can’t recall their discussing how their growth plans are to be financed.
Ocelot,
I am not interested in words, they are "cheap", when they come up with a PROPER factual/actual plan that has timelines and funding method attached etc then I will listen/read their spiel, not interested in cheap nonsense, they are reserved for the more gullible.
Bubblepoint,
You have said you haven't watched the company's recent presentations, which is where they spoke of their growth prospects (although they also said these are still at an early stage).
I don't know about "rerate" there might be a few peaks n troughs for the foreseeable, and I have not seen anything from them on "growth" prospects, only really efforts that hopefully maintain the same as now....
As for sentiment, well THEY killed it, not posters on here, you cannot argue with facts and reality.
Bubblepoint,
Imho, the negative sentiment will subside (I don't know when - it could be any time) and the share price will re-rate on the basis of the figures of the business and of growth prospects.
Ocelot: if by “negative sentiment” you mean that investors have begun to realise that Angus will not be able to finance internally the investment required to keep Saltfleetby flowing, but will need to go to shareholders time after time, while the gas pressure drops continuously, then I think you’re right. Some clarity on the new deal with Trafigura re hedges and offtake agreement might help but, as was observed here yesterday by another poster, there’s probably a sound reason from the Board’s point of view for their reluctance to share this information with shareholders.
Herbert enters Dragons Den,
We are owners of a depleted gas field, that had a good plan of action 3 years ago, we knew the problems.
We had historic info to help us develop a forward plan with good design and Capex.
We are now in production, have been for nearly 2 years.
We invite you to invest £1m for 1% of the company, because we believe it is worth £100m +
Peter: Soooo lets look at the development timeline, did you stick to your plan A ?? ermmm NOPE,,, or leader guffed it trying short cuts, it took 4 X longer to drill a simple sidetrack and cost ermmmm a LOT !!!
Ok, did you at least achieve your target ??? Ermmmm well we did ermmm manage to drill the hole, bit shorter than planned, ermmm like 70% shorter and a bit gunked up too.
OK, so did you at least bring it all in on budget ?? Ermmmm nahhhhh we ripped investors a new bumhole, by throwing out another 3.7 BILLION shares to this point, Ohhhh and we had to consolidate some ermmmm really bad debt, and a crappy hedgy thing with a really bad royalty thingy attached.
OK !! so how much have you had through your hands todate since starting this project, including revenues ? Ermmmm probbbbbbabbbbly about £70m give or take !!!
OK, and the debt ?? did you clear it with all this money swilling around ?? ermmmm no not really, we kept it going, now just a mere £20m owed over the next 6 years.
OK,,, AND how much do you plan to spend on forward NEEDED capex ?? ermmmmmm shedloads,,, probably another £15-20m to upgrade compressor/booster, run new velocity string/s, drill a couple wells etc etc.
OK, and will the do something good for production & revenues ??? ermmmm probably not, at best it might maintain current levels for a few years, at least until the loan is paid off !!
Soooooooo OK,,, and this great royalty deal from the past, is that closed off ??? nahhhh sorry, they want their cream !!
OK !!! so looking at the big picture, I see NOWT in this for me !!! just risk and almost nailed on NO reward.... I'M OUT !!!
You get the drift Ocelot !!!
Ocelot current share price is a function of: (to date net profits / debit-hedge service costs)
Until this actually changes, few will asign much value to the 4 billion shares.
An aside: Did BV finally get banned, or so busy averaging down no time for playground level comments?
What would be a conservative EV/EBITDA multiple for Angus? 8x?
I don't think the share's current price can be explained in terms of the fundamentals of the business, it seems to be very much a matter of negative sentiment.
You do realise that $\rho^{3} - \left( \gamma_{x} \times \beta_{y} \right)^{\epsilon} = \Theta \cdot \left[ \Phi \left( \zeta^{\frac{1}{2}} \right) + \Lambda \times \Omega \right]$ was the foundational principle underpinning the algorithmic trading model that promised unrivaled returns in the emerging renewable energy futures market?
-pa^{2} + \left ( ci \times n_{e} \right )^{\delta }
the equation for the perfect bull**** marketing equation
(rendered in \latex to make it look more sciency).
but to keep it simple, capex this, ebita that, opex the other, a bit of debt here, there, everywhere, some silent but violent hedgy things, a few promises of great things to come still will only equal 1.3rd of a penny a share !! polish it with whatever you want it doesn't shine through.
It would perhaps be helpful to split capex into two components. Necessary maintenance capex, i.e. that capex which is required to maintain the EBITDA at the current level, and expansionary capex which is that needed to expand the business and increase the EBITDA.
The former should be deducted from the EBITDA when calculating the ratio, the latter not.
The resulting ratio can then be compared with the sector average, calculated the same way with appropriate discounts for being a "minnow"/more risky.
Ocelot: you really can’t (and Mr. Zielicki should know better than to) usefully compare insignificant tiddlers like Angus with the sector average. Investors are rightly concerned about Angus's medium term future. What’s the EV/EBITDA of UKOG? It’s meaningless, in my opinion.
It looks to be on an EV/EBITDA of about 2.
You forget to include the HUGE CAPEX requirement for the next 2-3 years, which will squeeze, yes SQUEEZE every last penny out of the pot and revenues, leaving nowt !!! simplzzzzzzzz
Following the comment of Krzys Zielicki in the webinar that Angus is valued by the market at about 1x EBITDA:
"EV/EBITDA in energy & environmental services worldwide 2019-2023, by industry
Published by Statista Research Department, Jun 19, 2023
Worldwide, the average value of enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) in the energy & environmental services sector as of 2023, was a multiple of approximately 12.5x. Green & renewable energy companies saw the highest valuation multiples with an average of 14.03x".
EV = market cap + total debt - cash.
EBITDA in the last annual report: £17.002m
""Saying, all of that,BP, there could be flesh still left on the bone & that some may not have considered""
Are you referring to SLBY specifically Patrick ?
Saying, all of that,BP, there could be flesh still left on the bone & that some may not have considered.
Investors don't necessarily invest on the basis of the number of shares they buy, they can invest on the basis of the size of the investment measured in £s.
Ehhhh !!! ermmm I will stick with my approach lol !!! SLBY is worthless to RETAIL and will continue to be so for a long time to come !! So on that note !!!!!!!!!! you know the rest lol./.
Yes, BP past has put us where we are now. There as been a slide in the SP.
Investors don't necessarily invest on the basis of the number of shares they buy, they can invest on the basis of the size of the investment measured in £s.
A SQUEEZE !!!!! ferk meeeee,,, there are 4.3 BILLION of these puppies in issue,,, lol