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I also note BE in 24 is based on sales generated, excluding US. Why no US forecast included?
Investor meeting in 35 mins, let’s see what Fum have to say 🙏
Thanks Beech, good post. Let’s hope the analysts agree with you.
Simples DI.
2 things stood out from today's announcement, viz :
- normally financial performance is shown as PBT (Profit, or Loss as may be, BEFORE Tax) whereas chose to flatter Net Loss, quoted as £1.76M, only AFTER writing in an estimated Tax Refund/Credit to be claimed against R & D Costs. Excluding, Operating Loss £1.96M as per P 6 L Statement. However,
- included in latter figure was an Additional £0.55M (£0.1M H1 22) of Non Cash & Other One Off Charges which need omitting if to fully appreciate true operating position
Therefore, I deducted, and, for prudence, rounded up a bit, to come to £1.46M.
All covered under FINANCIAL REVIEW on Page 7 of 8 of today's RNS and elsewhere if one chooses to look.
Taking all into account and on the basis of regular recurring operational and administrative costs (state no change in company headcount) one can visualise, even though some expenditure has been reclassified to take account now more than just an R & D company, now have a reasonably static core cost base. The only caveat is R & D may continue to vary, up or down, depending on what holds in the future but for the present one assumes more of the same. On this premise I applied the same metrics displayed in today's figures i.e
- units sold in H1 given, in general terms, as 200,000 (say =£5M in sales)
- receivables/revenue of £1.7M equates to 34% of cash sales
- GP c53% of Revenues
To project forward a potential BE point which, for a half year, I see as follows
- 500,000 unit sales & £25 a pop = £12.5M
- Revenue ratio of 34% gives Receivables of £4.25M
- continued GPM of 53% yields GP of £2.26M
less
- core cost base of c£2.3M
QED.
There are some variables that could come into play such as does the Revenue Receipt Ratio benefit as volumes increase and/or the GPM improves for the same reason. Either way I can, in my own mind, envisage where we need to get to to start seeing all turn into a sustainably profitable company a la JB
Others have made comments about :
MANUFACTURING
All outsourced, as fully covered in current/past communications though whether have assisted such parties with some early capital/set up costs not known, as far as I am aware. However, with P & E in BS of nigh on £1.1M one could think have invested something into the manufacturing process for the third parties unless totally related to equipment etc. required in own R & D activities.
CASH POSITION
It should be remembered that the company now have some elements of working capital to finance, notably carrying almost £1M of Trade Receivables (as at 31/08/23 will probably be somewhat higher given increasing volume/sales levels) which will have absorbed a like amount of ££££, so this must be factored into some peoples thinking of why cash not as one might have expected.
Hoping the Market/the Analysts understand all of this as if so let us see the SP reflect accordingly.
Fum have actually made all those things clear. Suggest with respect read back through all Rns.
Anyone know how the manufacturing works?, does FUM pay a third party to manufacture the product? Initial tooling setup & then a fixed amount per unit? Looks like manufacturing costs are 50% of FUM’s share or about £4 per unit which seems steep? & on top they have setup costs which also eats into profit but will be temporary! Thank god! Guessing building stock levels for launches will eat into profit initially which is probably the reason for break even in 2024? Sorry just speculating & trying to understand the figures, shame FUM couldn’t make these things clearer!
Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12531821/Spider-venom-new-Viagra-researchers-say.html
TLDR: boners in our wallets soon. So in those assumption of yours where is the other 0.3m loss gone on?
JB spoke of Revs & GP (margin c53%) c4mins in to today's interview all of which can actually be seen in the detailed P&L & associated BS found in Company Documents in Investor Centre page of company website.
Expenses/Costs in H1 23 incl c0.5M of additional One Offs, in reality leaving Op Loss (pre effects of any taxation) of c1.46M.
Extrapolating the numbers out and presuming all factors i.e margins, admin/R & D costs remain similar, a quick calculation suggests operating breakeven for H2 23 could be achieved on 500K of product unit sales (=£12.5M) - given that sales volumes will have progressively grown since Belgium/UK launch one could envisage run rate is now greater than the 200K unit sales announced as having been effected during the HI (effectively Q2). On my estimation target for BE is 80/85K of unit sales p.m. which according to JB narrative, clearly thinks is an achievable target for 2024 which is only 3 months away from starting!! My assumptions regarding profitability discount any financial effects of the Haleon up front payment as depending on the terms of the agreement may well have to be amortised over a given period.
All we need to get to the "Promised Land" is to keep hearing the tills ringing!!
10 more countries going live in next few weeks/months
New Asia deal to be announced with huge interest.Possible new upfront payment to be received
Most commercial agreements consist of staged payments, especially regarding companies doing the heavy lifting.
The biggest take away from the results for myself was the clarity of figures enabling PI,s to calculate the standing of the company. It is clear that, as Barder reiterated several times through the interview, the company is now well placed for the future. The SP trajectory is still headed one way, and should be aided and abetted by interjection of news of deals and launches. I personally feel more confident now.
Where is all the profit going in 2024, that’s a big chunk of cash?? I’m guessing the setting up of additional manufacturing plants but seems steep! £6mill from current selling territories, the £3.2mill upfront payment & at least the rest of Europe and Saudi revenue, must be talking £15mill at least!
Which for me shy is an odd one cos they didnt need to report it as it wasnt in the current reporting period. August cash balance is for the next reporting period not this one so felt like a "we will just leave this one here" moment. Like someone said, launch costs etc but why mention a cash balance as of last month....
Terrific proactive interview and I do like the fact that JB is now ‘ shouting from the rooftops’ as the blood, sweat and tears of Pharma development and the associated risks are in the rear view mirror for Med 3000/ Eroxon. I was previously critical of JB’s downbeat demeanor but I am delighted that he now feels he can, publicly, bask in the glory of revenue generation and a very healthy cash position so we have no concerns about dilution into the future. Whether new innovations such as promoting for the female market are likely, time will tell but the management team are not sitting around twiddling their thumbs with numerous new commercial deals and a US launch to think about in coming months. Must be good fun going to work atm and in time the market will catch-up but for now we can sit back and look forward to what I hope will be regular updates on the commercials deals, patent extension when agreed and the US launch timescales etc. Finally, I sense that they were cautious in giving forward guidance ( excluding US which is significant) which IMO is eminently sensible as the real money to be made as a shareholder will not be this week or next week but after a year or two of increasing revenue and the establishment of Eroxon as a worthy competitor to Viagra and Cialis and an innovator in the growing sexual health markets across the world. In the meantime if someone wants to buy us then they will have to sweet talk Lombard Odier and I suspect that they are as excited as we are about the potential here so in the event that we do attract interest they will drive a hard bargain, that, I have no doubt. The Futura is bright!
utter *******s .they said costs increased to enable launches
"• Cash position at 30 June 2023: £7.8 million (30 June 2022: £6.68 million)
• Cash position as at 31 August 2023: £9.36 million which includes $4 million upfront milestone payment from Haleon plc"
----------------
Forget the $4m milestone - the bad news is that cash fell from £7.8m to £6.3m in two months (July and August) so they appear to be burning £0.75m per month.
Numbers are mentioned in this interview
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1026789/futura-medical-on-track-for-a-profit-in-2025-after-strong-first-half-1026789.html
Here is link: not taken down
https://www.futuramedical.com/investor-centre/videos-and-webcasts/webcasts/
Belgian- webcast been taken down?? I wonder if that’s because we have calculated the %% uk margin!
Belgian- was in the webcast on futura website, skip to financials at the end!
Dosanddonts, i think your 30%-ish number is correct. Other calculation with same result : 1.7M revenue, devided by 200.000 sold is 8,5 revenue a package. Which is 34% a pack.
But please help me out : where did you find the 900.000 profit? I don't find it in the numbers.
Online sales at Boots of Cialis Together OTC has fallen nearly 70% since its 20% price discount was removed ....Its now Viagra connect and Eroxon vying for top spot. (cant speak in store ) Cialis OTC has one tenth of the reviews Eroxon Generates considering it was launched 2 months after. so maybe we onto something totally new . Maybe to early to discuss Price sensitivity . tough to get into price war with Pfizer and eli lilly
Maybe eroxon could help Viagra work better
Just watched the interview and Barder is certainly upbeat. Now understand what he means by 20% incremental increase, I.e. Eroxon is not taking market share from other ED treatments, but rather expanding the overall market. Forward projections don’t even take into account US sales, futura looks bright. It’s a waiting game.
On a slightly tangential point re manufacturing,the inference i draw from borders webcast with proactive today,is that the current/pre_existing capacity is not adequate, hence the second manufacturer now appointed,and the clear reference to a third being required in due course.i assume the new one will need to satisfy quality requirements etc,so may be a little while before it is in actual production,but clearly fum are focussed on ensuring that the manufacturing capability will be up to scratch asap.