proof you can get a higher price if nitrogen is taken off...
"with some upside if part of nitrogen is removed."
These fields typically produce 68% to 70% methane which is priced at around 6.5-7 $ per mcf, with some upside if part of nitrogen is removed. We are talking about long term sustainable production from onshore gas fields in Poland.
San Leon have indicated 57 bcf of low-methane gas for the full Rawicz field, of which 35% belongs to the company, they farmed out 65% to Palomar, who have been the lead developer of Rawicz. Polish domestic gas is priced at typically $7/mcf, at 35% this would represent circa $140 million of gas sales, less costs and tax in revenue to San Leon. The well itself would be worth approximately $400 million.
Revenue from this cashflow should add about 0.0056p per share to San Leon. Before the announcement yesterday, San Leon was trading at around 1.2 p meaning that a realistic share price based on the potential earnings from Rawicz would be approximately 1.7p, pretty much what the current trading price is now the news has broke. Naturally San leon’s other assets should be factored into this valuation, particularly the Palomar-San Leon Polish conventional plays that have yet to be drilled and lets not forget, this valuation is for one well, there are I think four planned on this Rawicz acreage.
". Polish domestic gas is priced at typically $7/mcf, at 35% this would represent circa $140 million of gas sales, less costs and tax in revenue to San Leon"
but JB states..Currently, the price of gas imported by Poland is one of the highest in Europe, exceeding 10 USD per thousand cubic feet
so we could be looking for more than the $140mill to sle..
and........share price based on the potential earnings from Rawicz would be approximately 1.7p, pretty much what the current trading price is now the news has broke. Naturally San leon’s other assets should be factored into this valuation, particularly the Palomar-San Leon Polish conventional plays that have yet to be drilled and lets not forget, this valuation is for one well, there are I think four planned on this Rawicz acreage.
"and lets not forget, this valuation is for one well,"..1.7pX5=8.5p...
Jp..proactive.........boy was he right regarding other structures!
Oh so promising rather than fairly this is a great result at the top end of our expectations..the well is capable of excellent flow rates and proven up that the formation that has good ability to flow and permabilitity..and despite the fact a bit of damage from the skin from the drilling process which we expect to be removed as it continues to be removed as it has been so far from the well test with the well increasing and pressure increasing over time..then there is clearly more upside to this well on that rate already..
several things and we are going to do them in parallel..we have already completed a feasible study regarding tying in facilities and so on for a development..we are talking to pipeline owners which there bare more than one locally about tying in and pricing and so on, that's well advanced..
the results of the well have very clearly told us we should now go ahead and finish planning the next well..that could well be a horizontal or high angled well which should in the same rock have a significant higher flow rate due to a lot more contact with the resevior..so more drilling and prosecuting the development phase are what we looking to go after..
it does I believe around 70% of polands gas is imported and any country would like to produce it themselves for an energy security point of view and from an income view..so this is a big deal this I believe is the biggest field since the middle 90"s that is now going toward development..it is a big deal for Poland and locally we have other targets as well..we have leads and prospects and particually to the west of rawicz we have a similar size prospect which we will look to do 3D seismic over and mature that up for future drilling as well..so the stuff that comes off locally for this success as well..
well certainly oil prices arnt but the real positives regarding rawicz and Poland is the gas prices are very buoyant in Poland, some of the best in Europe and of course gas hasn't sufford in the way oil has so we are talking about a high value product here with a very ready market,local infrastructure and your absolutely right the deal is san leon do not pay upfront for the fist couple of wells and associated activities and in a success case that is clearly demonstrated here when production occurs then part of the production is used to pay back our 35% share of those costs..its a good structure for us and we are extremely happy with the outcome..
You may have noticed that the public utility regulator in Poland recently reduced the tariff a further 3.6%, which will be effective for the months of May through July of this year. This tariff is set to expire at the end of July, and we have no guidance beyond that date. In addition, as we discussed during our last call, lower U.S. dollar prices and revenues also will flow through our credit facility calculations, and our credit facility in turn could have a material positive or negative impact on the funds available for capex. The average gas price received in Poland for the first quarter of 2015 was $5.96 per Mcf, compared to $7.42 per Mcf for the first quarter of 2014, a decrease of 20%, which we estimated during our last call.
San Leon Energy books first Polish gas reserves thanks to Rawicz success
By Jamie Ashcroft
May 19 2015, 7:58am Rawicz is seen as a first step in building a sustainable long term gas exploration and production business in Poland. Rawicz is seen as a first step in building a sustainable long term gas exploration and production business in Poland.
A positive assessment of the breakthrough Rawicz project, in Poland, has delivered San Leon Energy (LON:SLE) its first bookable reserves.
It follows the success of the Rawicz-12 appraisal well which was drilled earlier this year.
The company, which has a 35% stake in the field, told investors that a new independent competent persons report (CPR) has identified more than 50bn cubic feet of proved and probable (2P) gas reserves.
Ryder Scott, the consultant providing the CPR, has based these reserves on a five well development scenario at Rawicz.
Rawicz is seen as a first step in building a sustainable long term gas exploration and production business in Poland.
Talks are currently ongoing with the Polish authorities over a gas sales deal, and it is anticipated that 2P reserves will be upgraded to the proven (1P) category once a contract is signed.
Production could begin as soon as early 2016. Several field development scenarios are currently being considered by San Leon and its partner Palomar Natural Resources (which owns the other 65% and is the operator).
"We are quickly moving forward with the development of the Rawicz gas field, and the confirmation of reserves from the CPR is a very positive step,” said Oisin Fanning, San Leon’s chief executive.
“San Leon and PNR are focused on first production and expanding our development using modern drilling and completion technology to unlock the significant remaining reserves in this under-explored basin, where some of the best gas prices in Europe can be found."
Palomar’s current development plan aims to build a scalable central processing plant which would be capable of handling additional production from other adjacent gas prospects, which it estimates could hold more than 100bn cubic feet.
John Buggenhagen, Palomar’s chief executive, said: "This is an exciting time for Palomar and San Leon, and for Poland - the Rawicz field development is the beginning of a larger exploration and production business for conventional gas.”
“We have already mapped several other large, undrilled structures on our 3D seismic database at Rawicz and across our broader acreage position, that bring significant upside potential to the area and justify a larger, fast-paced development
Typical example of someone with an agenda and as you can see spouting a load of c***......Big question who is the author of this bilge....I think I know but it's not the name on the post...The multi id's on here now has become ridiculous....Also to me that anyone still listens to.links after his recent actions say's it all. perhaps everyone is not aware of other oddities over the last 4 years. Like when a certain Ozzie posted that we were about to be diluted by another 1/2 billion shares to which links venomously denied it and at the same time kicked ozzie from pillar to post for daring to suggest such a thing. When it happened Links simply said....Well it's already been taken into account so there wont be any further dilution. Then there's the classic....I didn't tell you to buy shares...I didnt put a gun to your head and say you must buy shares DYOR..Well of course he didn't but what he did do is exactly what hes'e doing now which is screaming over and over that this the time to buy at these never to be seen again prices. Only trouble is hes'e been doing this all the way down from 40p....Then there was his famous shorting episode where after expressing his utter contempt for shorting for so long he suddenly announced he'd done it.After all everyone does it the odd time. Later he retracted this saying it was just a joke, a wind up...Finally after year's of telling us all how much SLE sp was worth 60p £1 £2 ££££££'s And there will be no silly cheap t/o as the trouble makers keep saying..We wake up one moring and find that Link's will be Quite happy with 2p and hes'e hedge his bets against would you believe it a cheap t/o....After all that I find it incomprehensible why anyone believes what he says.
I'm a new investor here (got in around 1.8), and I have to say I'm over the moon at getting in at that price.
The real benefit to the SP has yet to be recorded for Rawicz and with testing due to complete on Saturday, I think there will be another hefty shift early next week (possibly Monday) when SLE announce commercial confirmation. Hopefully this time next week we will be another penny closer to our targets (minimum).
I've invested in a lot of small cap O&G's over the years, but there is something extra special about this one that excites me. Having done my research I think SLE could and SHOULD have a very strong year. All of the right elements are there.
A good stock at a good price. Expecting a rise today in readiness for any potential RNS first thing Monday. Next week will compound the success of Rawicz and really start to kick this share onwards and upwards.
I have to say, having monitored this BB for some time, it's quite clear that some posters appear to have negative (at best) malicious (at worst) intent (Frus, Honestsid and Kwidzyn). I've also seen that many times before - it's generally know as sour grapes.
I would any new inexperienced investor to ignore the 'noise' and focus on the licenses, what will be drilled and what success would need to be converted for you to gain. There are big opportunities with this stock.
you keep quoting fx prices but pnr have stated $10mcf..for pnr to state their price it looks though they are to take the nitrogen off and get a better price! .so instead of keep arguing the toss of what fx get.. concentrate on what pnr have stated as they have stated the price of $10mcf..
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