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I appreciate nothing is linear but this 15-20% fall since last week defies all logic. Thanks for your views on what's happening but for how long can it continue to tank?
Thanks for the explanation Rich , I had wondered what was going on !
ATs (funds using computer trading) and MMs (market makers) played a blinder today taking the share price down, so this is how it goes...
- ATs drive price down with continuous small sells
- MMs happy to take shares at low prices (however for extended period they are pricing to sell low, but actually have no shares available to sell)
- Hold price down as low as possible (with no shares to sell) so eventually PIs capitulate and sell at less than 90p
- After hours trading will be lots of big buys yet again around 90p (as we saw last night after the bell)
- Price is opened up high again tomorrow around 92-94p, to encourage PIs to buy at a higher price thinking its going to recover, before ATs take the price down again...
- Rinse and repeat tomorrow whilst big boys pick up larger stakes at stupid low prices off the private investors
Rich
You have to remember it's not just about storing products, we are coming to the end of the year and this is where big companies like pfd make all the profits for the year.
And this is the time all the big supermarket groups are going for their end of year food manufactures case sale targets to hit their overriders discounts which could be thousands of pounds in return.
PFD like all other companies will have case targets for all the supermarket groups and that's why many will now be stocked to the hilt so they can all be sold be end of Dec.
Someone mentions the V word and we are down 4%
The market’s an ass
Having being in this stock for over 5 years. I recall that good trading updates usually results in the SP dropping and every other excuse also causes it to drop. Fortunately, most of us will now be in profit. In the absence of any other saving options, PFD seems to be the a decent stock to stay in, despite the ongoing frustrations. GLA
Fully agree. I also think that this company could attract a takeover bid in the future as it gets it’s balance sheet sorted, they have some strong brands. In terms of brands, now Premier has more customers I think it is quite likely that these customers will stick with the brands that they’ve discovered during lockdown.
I do think that the markets are only focusing on covid with premier, and not the ongoing recovery that the company has had. Saying that though ,would we have thought that the shares would have gone over £1 this time last year ?? I get frustrated when more positive vaccine news come out and we drop !!! Oh well, ill eat some more mince pies.
Thanks for that and very interesting it was, I have thought for the last 2 years that pfd could be a takeover target and it looks like others are now seeing that to.
If someone was to make a bid I would have thought now is the best time because the longer this goes the higher the price is going to be. But like many others I have been in these for the last 5-8 years and it's about time we can now see a good return so the higher it goes now the better for all of us long termers. Still think this will be £1.20 - £1.50 within the next 6 months even without a bid.
Good spot Tommy. Very interesting article, good to read other informed opinions on Premier other than on here.
First time sharinf a link, hope its worked. Well worth a read.
Hi tommy, which article is this ? any chance of posting. thanks
Love the article. So, takeover target and dividends. Happy to see what cones of it, after the fall back. It is premier foods though
Agreed. I cancelled my licence fee back at the start of the pandemic and bought £157 worth of PFD shares. A far better investment !
Dogger, that made me laugh, which is good considering the direction of the share price!
Can't understand the BBC or the quite so lower level since Tuesday. However I am in for the medium term, with lots of optimism here. Let's hope the BBC don't offer to do an appraisal of PFD for us!
No matter how much good news or progress is out there the BBC will do their up most to find every bit of negative info they can to have a go at the government. BBC should be forced to go private and then let them try to make a go at it.
They make you just want to switch off.
Congratulations to the bbc on finding some bad vaccine news. They never miss an opportunity to bash the government and the country.
On today program this morning there’s talk of not enough of the vaccine to go around and the government using a slightly less effective one for the majority of the population. If that happens then more people might think twice about going out for meals and sales of premier foods should continue their stellar performance.
It’s never good sign director selling decent amount of shares
Broker Peel Hunt said: "We are increasingly confident that some key themes will continue (working from home, more cooking from scratch, online penetration), which will improve longer-term growth prospects.
"We continue to see considerable potential from the improving cash generation, as well as the transfer of debt into equity. The shares have increased materially, but there is still plenty of upside as the rating reflects a more normal balance sheet. The shares are trading on 10x price-to-earnings and 8x EBITDA (including the pension deficit) to March 2022E. We upgrade our target price from 120p to 125p."
Peel Hunt rates the stock at 'buy'.
So let's now also see some / most directors buying shares with their own money and showing more faith in pfd, and NOT more free shares for doing what they get paid to do.
Trading to the end os Sept has seen debt reduction down to £403m from £492m
Cost savings programme to deliver ahead of £5m target
· Announced repayment in aggregate of £120m callable Floating rate notes in FY20/21 reducing interest costs by £6m p.a.
· Credit ratings upgrades received from both S&P and Moody's
· Hovis disposal completed 5 November, raising proceeds of £37.3mSo net debt should come down another £37m or so from Hovis plus maybe another £60m-£80m from trading
Trading profit for the full year will be ahead of current market expectations. Additionally, following both our recent progress in accelerating leverage reduction along with proceeds received from the Hovis transaction, we are today announcing a new medium-term target for Net debt/EBITDA of approximately 1.5x."
So for a change everything is looking more positive, and NOW maybe is the time for a takeover move by someone.?
Now let's see some up-dated broker prices of £1.20--£1.50
C'mon! - Its not going to "drift back to where it came from i.e. 18p" at the depths of the CV19 share crash madness!
H1 results out today to end Sept, were excellent even if Q2 growth in revenue was not as significant as Q1.
The BOD have made clear that H2 will be tougher, especially if more people return to work; however with November being a lockdown month and winter being the best half of the year for most of PFDs products, we should be in for great results for Y/End IMO.
The medium term target for debt to be reduced further, is the game changer here.
I have confidence in the current team to deliver and for the share price to be re-rated upwards accordingly.
Rich
Stock markets are forward looking. With vaccine in sight, cyclicals will gain steam and this will drift back down to where it came from I suspect. That is why I have been buying banks and big oil over the last few months. Gutted I didnt go in heavier on travel, but wasnt sure the likes of TUI and EZJ would survive without vaccine.