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premier's business model is more proven for post covid trends
- working from home
- online sales of food
- debt heading for 1.5xebitda - small bolt-on acquisitions - new board members skillset
- energetic admin structure to introduce new products made by others eg nissin pots, Cape Herb & Spice, peckish crackers.
Kallumama - whilst I agree with you that debt reduction (and pension rationalisation) are permanent improvements and will be of huge financial benefit going forward, I have to wonder about your comment “... proven business model for the Post Covid: new normal”. You seem to imply that Premier does have one of those models. Do they? Agreed, they'll be on a far better financial footing than they have been for years. However, without far more seasonal-independent NPD in the pipeline (or, God forbid, good-fitting acquisitions) – and, fingers crossed, a seriously cold winter (that historically have always been good for RHM / Premier), I honestly can't see what's in 'the model' that is going to guarantee a different long-term future for this company – beyond the one-off beneficial hit that Covid is going to have provided by the time it's done with us. I genuinely hope I'm wrong but “bumping along the bottom” sums up my gloomy outlook for Premier. (My foreboding about acquisitions is rooted in being a surviving member of RHM when Schofield made multi-millionaires out of the RHM Board by paying such a ridiculous price for RHM and nearly driving Premier into the ground in his obsessive drive to make Premier 'the biggest'.)
you know what they say about keeping your eggs in one basket you might just end up with an omelette.
I am just interested in short term now but I think price has def bottomed out now , only upward now my new target price 110
Busy watching banks recovery , my P/f starting to resemble pre covid holdings onward & upwards !
talk over the last 1-2 weeks has been about pfd buying more brands to expand their total business and still keep within a limited debt size for our business. So what great brands are out there for sale that we could buy for our summer trade area which is where i think we could do with some help.
As long as they don't go on a big buying move and get us into a lot more and too much debt that they cannot pay back with normal sales/ profits.
This can only help sentiments for PFD
https://www.cityam.com/piece-of-cake-lockdown-treats-boost-revenue-30-per-cent-at-cake-box/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
With pfd now in a better position than they have been for the last 5-8 years, it's about time we saw some of the directors showing the same faith and buying shares with their own money and NOT waiting for more free shares.
I have made this point to investor relations but I don't expect to get any positive replies.
Plenty of shares out these who have that potential 50% rise in the next 3-5 weeks hoping for a quick strong rise in the next few weeks with PFD to make a little more. PFD was my oldest stock holding ever I cant give them another 3- 5 years. Perhaps you could start playing with your chemistry set to see if you can create another virus !
Agreed. We shouldn't really be knocking a 5 bagger over a matter of months. Nice gentle onwards and upwards hopefully now.
There are a few strange buys and sells going through at the moment.....wonder if something is brewing ?
Jed. I think a few of us would like an answer to that quandary!
Why is it that pfd looks like it has everything going for it with increased sales, increased profits , reduced debt levels, sell off of Hovis and new products coming and higher tv spend.
And yet low support from the city as this sp can never seem to hold ground for long, we should be over the £ mark now and moving up. So what's going wrong?
Could these trades possibly be sells showing as buys? As at the time of the trade the SP was around 88p. Pfd just loves doing the opposite to what its supposed to. 13 consecutive quarters of good results yet Sp drops every time.
1 for £2m and 1 for £1m, is this why they have been dropping the sp , now that shows some faith at these prices.
I don't mind waiting for the rise now, bring back the £1.05 -£1.20
Thanks Kallumama, useful information and good to know.
From the tweet he does say that he is retaining the rest, so hopefully big seller is out?
If so, onwards and upwards
I'm holding shares I bought below 60p, so actually adding on the progress made. Haven't bought at top 110p, and I reckon a 25% discount off that price is a steal. Time will tell, bring on the full year results including further debt reduction.
Rich
Recently sold my last 3rd off PFD stock quite close to peak but just bough back in with recent drop . I must admit I am quite shocked at how covid cure news has hit PFD, but I was always concerned relying on the pandemic for improved performance but seriously thought PFD was now safe to take of it stabilisers as it was now relatively bomb proof even once this is all over. Anyhow I feel this price is too good to be true so dipped my feet back in for interest & profit off course.
The only problem with PFD is that I bought some recently on the dip. That normally causes a crash. I'd be better off picking a stock at random.
Can we go ?.....looking to top up at 69p
So we are now 25% lower than peak of 110p - bought on 10th November on HY results.
What's changed?
Nothing, just profit taking and share being shorted?
Buying opportunity now with 25% upside so added at 86.7p
Rich
Yes, on every normal financial measure the company looks great, and in a defensive industry. The big issue is the pension fund and we won't really know more about that until the next triennial review.
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/what-factors-will-move-the-premier-foods-share-price-146773/
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/11/17/2-uk-shares-id-buy-now-for-the-next-10-years/
and the 4 th Qtr sales are always a great time for food companies and this year should be even better than before, so there is no reason why the sp shouldn't be £1.20+ very soon.
The longevity of this increased demand is likely to be linked to the duration of these new measures, and although the Group faces strong quarter 4 comparatives, it now anticipates Trading profit for the full year will be ahead of current market expectations. Additionally, and following the Group's recent strong progress in both accelerating leverage reduction and receipt of Hovis disposal proceeds, it today announces a new medium target for Net debt/EBITDA of approximately 1.5x.
That's just silly.